In mixed martial arts, fighters either come out of nowhere to surprise us with their talents or they slowly grow on us over time. Either way, extended success in the ring or cage alone doesn’t always result in the kind of major fights that can make or break a career. When that is the case, these athletes have to jump up and “take the bull by the horns,” as they say. Darren Elkins is a fighter who, by stepping in to face Chad Mendes at UFC on Fox 7, is trying to do just that.
At 16-2, Elkins may be unknown to the mainstream fan, but he holds the distinction of possessing the most featherweight wins without a loss within the Ultimate Fighting Championship. Since debuting with the company back in 2010 he’s gone 6-1, but even after reeling off five straight wins, he hasn’t caught on in a weight class that is really struggling to shake itself out beyond its current champion, Jose Aldo. However, stepping in to face Mendes on short notice is the exact type of move that can suddenly build Elkins into the title contender that many hardcore fans believe he has already become.
Mendes has struggled to find opponents recently, and after Clay Guida fell off the card slots due to injury, “Money” almost found himself without an opponent for the third straight fight. Against Elkins he is expected to be the favorite going into the bout, but that could be due to the sheer lack of knowledge about Darren as a fighter. However, looking deeper at the numbers provided by Fight Metric, the chasm between their UFC performances becomes more tangible.
It’s clear that Mendes is a powerful wrestler that has been able to take down just about any opponent that has stood across from him. His 57 percent takedown offense and the nearly 5 takedowns he lands per fight scream out in support of that point. Elkins, on the other hand, has a takedown defense percentage of 50 percent, all while landing nearly 3 takedowns of his own in his fights. Though Elkins also has a wrestling background, he doesn’t have the pedigree of Mendes, and the numbers suggest that he will struggle if he attempts to beat Chad at his own game.
However, where he does hold the advantage is the striking department, albeit only a slight one. Elkins will bring a 5-inch reach advantage with him into the Octagon, as well as a propensity to throw and land more blows when competing. Elkins lands 3 significant strikes per 15 minutes at a 35 percent accuracy rate, while Mendes only lands 2, though he does have a higher accuracy rating. Mendes’s wrestling ability has also helped him attain a higher defense rating than the Indiana native.
Darren Elkins has done the UFC a serious favor by taking a bout that could seriously put his win streak in jeopardy. In Chad Mendes he is facing a fighter that is statistically better than him in multiple categories. However, one of the biggest draws of MMA is that underdogs have strong chances to walk out of the competition victorious. Elkins will be facing his toughest opponent to date, but if he can secure the improbable win, Elkins can stake his own claim for consideration as the number one contender to the featherweight title. It’s a high-risk, high-reward proposition, but for Elkins, it’s a gamble worth taking.
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UFC on Fox 7: Henderson vs. Melendez is due to take place on April 20, 2013 at the HP Pavilion in San Jose, California.
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