By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
Misaki vs. Joe Riggs
Riggs has a lot of problems. His striking isn’t that crisp, he’s a flake, he gets injured a lot, he gasses, he doesn’t back his wrestling up with a solid control game, and he ends up in submissions far too often. Misaki’s only real weakness is that he has poor takedown defense and isn’t a wizard off his back, so the Frank Trigg type fighter is a nightmare for him. This is compounded by the fact that he may be a bit small for the division.
Misaki does, however, have an awkward counter-striking style, a truly excellent chin, good submission offense, and the ability to land trips and end up in good positions when his opponent doesn’t expect it. Add those factors to worlds of experience, and Misaki should easily dispatch of Joe Riggs, whether he simply outpoints and dictates the pace of the fight, knocks Riggs out cold, or knocks him over and lands a submission.
At the current betting lines there’s little value in this fight, because Riggs does have flashes of brilliance, making Misaki an unacceptable risk, but Riggs flakiness also make him a bet I’d avoid even at extreme underdog odds like these.
Terry Martin vs. Cory Devala
Martin is coming off a terrible streak of going 1-3, with the win coming by way of DQ (although Terry was dominating that fight). Fortunately for Terry, all those losses came at the hands of high-caliber opponents. Between Martin’s wrestling and his punching power, I expect him to be able to control the fight and beat up Devala, who is too raw at this point.
I have placed 1u on Martin at -165, because I think his skills are being underrated after losses to tough competition. His wrestling will interrupt Devala’s game and his boxing and power will put Devala on the back foot from the get-go. If things get rough for Terry, he can simply control the fight in the clinch. So as only a modest favorite, I like him.
The rest of the card
Mitsuhiro Ishida, Trevor Prangley, and Josh Thomson are all fighting on the card, but these fights will only be notable if they lose, since each is far better than their opponent. Tune in for the rare sight of Ishida actually finishing an opponent.
My plays:
1u on Terry Martin at -165
