By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
Certainly the story of this event is betting success, with my plays going 4-0 for +5.65u, which is always nice to have on my public bet record. While the fights did go long, as expected, and the shortened format precluded all but the shortest of preliminary fights even in the best of circumstances, two electrifying fights and one with a very heartwarming result (suck it Junie!) is better TV than anything else on the airwaves.
Martin Kampmann defeated Carlos Condit via split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Condit looked impressive, with the grappling we’d expect plus more damaging strikes than most pundits gave him credit for. Kampmann looked slow at many points in the bout, certainly a by-product of his poorly-thought out strategy of continuously leaping for submission attempts against an expert grappler, blowing 90% of his energy.
Given how dead Kampmann looked late in the second round, it was pretty surprising that he managed to gut it out and finish the fight with such a strong round. He should have won the second and third rounds, with Condit taking the first, so the decision is appropriate.
Neither fighter’s reputation should hurt by the outcome of this bout. This performance establishes both men as dangerous top-tier fighters with a wealth of exciting fights possible for them in what is once again the most exciting division in the organization.
Ryan Bader defeated Carmelo Marrero via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Very good performance by Bader, showing some versatility with his submission attempts, which could serve him very well when coupled with his wrestling skills in the striker-heavy 205-pound class. Marrero looked abysmal in this fight, so it was hard to tell if Bader’s wrestling was just that good, or if Marrero just hadn’t trained and was giving up takedowns extremely easily. It was also difficult to judge Bader’s level of gas, as he seemed to get extremely tired by the end of the fight, and was certainly much looser and sloppier, but always seemed to have enough energy and power to keep pressing forward.
In the future, if matched against a less well-rounded fighter than Marrero with weaker wrestling or ground skills, there’s little reason to think Bader won’t just run roughshod over such competition.
Tyson Griffin defeated Rafael dos Anjos via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Great show of heart from Tyson, who is really becoming a bit of a hard luck case, and not just because he’s the only fighter that makes Joe Rogan look tall. While it’s wonderful to see some really funky submission attempts like that leglock, it’s too bad that it robbed fans of the chance to see much more of the explosive and sharp standup game Griffin opened the fight with, as his hobbled leg reduced him to throwing bombs from an unstable base, without the speedy in-and-out that characterized his early efforts.
Rafael really needs to work on his striking so he doesn’t get hit so much, or at least ingratiate himself with Joe Silva so he gets more matchups where he can get takedowns (he could dismantle Joe Lauzon), because he obviously has the stuff to tear up almost anyone in the division if he can get a grip on them.
Tyson seems to have improved the power in his punches as well as the technique, so perhaps he can pick up some KO of the night bonuses for a little variety. If he’d been able to more fully step into his punches and follow up with combinations, it’s quite likely that he would have put dos Anjos to sleep by the second round.
Cole Miller defeated Junie Allen Browning via submission (guillotine choke) at 1:58 of round 1
Congrats on your Kampmann pick. It does seem that it was far more competitive than you predicted. I even think it could have been a draw (and so does FightMetric).
I’m not implying anything more than what I’m saying, but I think that Condit would have beat Kampmann if the fight went 2 more rounds. What do you think about that?
Also, I picked up $37 on Miller, thank sfor the good advice!
I look forward to your breakdown of the prelims, which were very entertaining indeed.