By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
While the tiny titans at the top of this ticket have been the primary focus of most of the coverage, WEC 41, as we’ve come to expect from the organization, also features extremely exciting prospects in matchups that they should win but should provide growth and development for their talents.
There are only a few betting lines on this card with much spark, but the sizzle inside the cage should be more than enough to delight any fan.
Mike Thomas Brown (+110) vs. Urijah Faber (-125) for WEC featherweight title
The champs are here. Despite brutally hammering Faber for a very Faber-like moment of wilding out and then tossing out the always-tough Leonard Garcia like yesterday’s newspaper, Brown is still an underdog to the much-beloved and always ebullient “California Kid”. This should come as no surprise, as, for most of his career, Faber’s impressive accomplishments got more publicity than the rest of his division combined, leaving Brown to toil in the shadows. Given the hammerjob he endured in their last tilt, Faber should be careful of what goes bump in that particular night, especially as there’s no reason to think Brown won’t do it again.
Brief as it was, in their first fight Brown seemed to have little to no difficulty stopping Faber’s usually dominant and relentless wrestling attack, and seemed to simply be the much bigger, stronger man, bullying Faber around and pushing him over like a little kid at one point. Unless working with Joe Warren has substantially improved Faber’s game, this inability to control Brown’s body is going to make it very hard for Urijah to wear the belt again.
On the feet, Faber is very fast and has dramatically improved his striking, but he doesn’t have the kind of power Brown does and is still working on channeling his natural creativity into effective striking. Both of Faber’s losses have come in the form of Faber launching some kind of ludicrous flying attack and getting blown out of the air, Duck Hunt style. When he’s not flying around the ring with leaping knees and the like, he’s working an extremely basic boxing game, which Brown may be able to key off of and counter. It will be interesting to see how Faber’s usual aggression and pace is affected by memories of his Dudley Do-Right chin being checked.
While most of the talk going into this fight is about the standup, the most intriguing aspect should be the possible ground warfare. Brown, like so many of his ATT brethren, is a very very solid and fundamentally sound grappler, with a very high submission finish rate, but Faber brings the kind of dynamic MMA-oriented grappling attack that you don’t find in traditional BJJ schools and can give even black belts fits. If these two have protracted grappling exchanges, this bout could be an instant contender for fight of the year honors.
In the long run, Brown’s ability to take the back and finish or rapidly deal large amounts of damage on the feet should see him through to victory, especially with the amount of risks Urijah takes in the ring. If Faber can last into the 4th or 5th round without being punished too badly, he could make it close and steal the later rounds through superior gas, but it’s going to be very hard for him to find a way to put Brown away, and if Brown clips him or takes his back in the inevitable scrambles, Faber is in mortal danger. Mike Thomas Brown by TKO round 2.
Brown should be a favorite in this fight, and he’s available as an underdog. Great bet.
Jose Aldo (-365) vs. Cub Swanson (+300)
The much-hyped Aldo stays busy with his fifth fight in 12 months, against a tough opponent who will test the 14-1 phenom. In this fight Swanson, despite being an athletic, well-rounded guy, may have flashbacks to his utter emasculation at the hands of Jens Pulver. Aldo has a crisp, technical, aggressive, and devastating striking game, but he also outclasses Swanson on the ground, having begun his career as a grappler and then took to striking like a fish to water.
Swanson will be in this fight until it’s over, so Aldo cannot make too many mistakes, but if Aldo does not, Swanson doesn’t have what it takes to force him to make them. Jose Aldo by KO round 2.
Donald Cerrone (-450) vs. James Krause (+400)
Cerrone, coming off a very close and hard-fought split decision loss to divisional standout Jamie Varner, gets a soft touch against undefeated Krause. Cerrone is a huge step up in competition for Krause, so he’s likely going to be crushed.
Perhaps Cerrone can use this as an opportunity to stop walking into huge overhand rights, something he desperately needs to work on if he wants to have a long career or sustained success, regardless of how good his chin is. Interestingly, both of these fighters has a huge number of triangle choke finishes, so if Cerrone doesn’t just tear Krause apart on the feet immediately this fight could devolve to a jumble of stilt-like legs. Donald Cerrone by submission round 2 (Triangle Choke).
Josh Grispi (-160) vs. Jens Pulver (+155)
Coming off of a fight he didn’t want to take and was not prepared for, Jens Pulver has been done no favors by WEC matchmaking, which apparently thinks the solution to their faded star’s Chuck Liddell-like 1-5 slide is a 12-1 fighter with strong sub skills and the KO power to exploit Pulver’s weakened jaw.
Anyone that loves an underdog story and appreciates what Pulver has done for the sport will be rooting for him here, but the most likely outcome is another embarrassing TKO loss for the former champ, and possibly tearful in-ring retirement. The Zuffa-era WEC has been more or less built on the grave of Pulver’s career. Josh Grispi by TKO round 1.
Frank Gomez (-135) vs. Noah Thomas (+125)
Noah Thomas, the goofball kicked off of TUF season 5 for backyard brawling, has dropped all the way down to 135 and shown himself to be a legitimately skilled fighter. Few people have taken notice, so he’s an underdog in a fight he should easily win. His submission skills and boxing will be more than Gomez can handle. Noah Thomas by submission round 2.
I only brought this fight up to recommend a bet on it. Take Thomas for two.
My plays:
2u on Thomas at (+125) to win 2.5u
2u on Brown at (+110) to win 2.2u
