By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
Sengoku, clearly run by hardcore fans for hardcore fans, has put together yet another delicious product to be overlooked by the mainstream media (and even, unforgivably, this website!) yet it has real comings and goings and relevance. With the WEC being so open to new talent, these featherweights could be showing up on versus any time soon, and, as previous iterations of this tournament have demonstrated, a well-matched fight is often well worth watching even if neither guy is an all-world consensus top 10 fighter.
Champ Satoru Kitaoka (-400) vs. Mizuto Hirota (+320) (for Sengoku lightweight title)
Kitaoka is on off a very impressive run, stringing up the longest win streak of his career and completely monstering his opponents as he’s gone. Hirota is intended to be a bit of a tune-up for him here, but Hirota didn’t see things that way last time he was supposed to tune someone up. Instead, he tuned up Mitsuhiro Ishida’s face on a Shooto card, although it was a bit of a premature stoppage, considering Ishida was actively working to reverse the position.
This is a boom or bust fight for Kitaoka. The guy is big, very strong, and a dominating grappler (I suggest anyone interested check out this video. If he gets a takedown, he’s going to tear Hirota apart. However, Kitaoka has almost no standup ability, and Hirota has pretty good hands and can crack. Mizuto may be a bit of a journeyman, but he’s not a complete jobber, he has a good shot at redecorating Kitaoka’s face if there’s much action on the feet. Kitaoka is a great fighter for a reason, so he should be expected to muscle Hirota to the floor and tap him shortly thereafter with a guillotine or achilles lock. Satoru Kitaoka by submission round 1.
Despite being outmatched, Hirota has a very clear road to victory here: Bash Kitaoka’s face in. Kitaoka is short even for 155, and he’ll have to shoot in from a ways out, since he doesn’t want to throw hands with Hirota. If Hirota can catch him, +320 will look like easy money.
Michihiro Omigawa (+195) vs. Marlon Sandro (-205)
Omigawa is the first Cindarella I know of with a mullet, but what a powerful and noble domepiece it is. The tournament’s dark horse surprised everyone with his newfound resilience and more polished striking skills. He’s a rough and tumble fighter that shines nowhere but can contend anywhere a fight takes him. He’s capitalized on that versatility to win so far, but that “I’ll fight anyone anywhere” attitude will lead to trouble against someone as offensively talented as Sandro.
Like a shocking number of Nova Uniao fighters, Sandro is just as comfortable on the feet as on the ground, and much better than most at either. He’ll give the sturdy Omigawa fits on the floor and likely submit him, and he has the firepower to threaten Michihiro with another highlight reel knockout like the one Aaron Riley put on him in his debut.
The one X factor is that Sandro has never really struck for a protracted period of time with anyone that can hang in there and throw back equally well. I thought Nick Denis would be the guy to really make him flex his skills, but he blitzed Denis. Omigawa is rugged and protects himself well when he’s on, so keep an eye open for how Sandro handles someone that hangs around and makes a fight of it. Marlon Sandro by TKO round 1.
Hatsu Hioki (+525) vs. Masanoru Kanehara (-575)
This fight is a mismatch. In any reasonable world, Kanehara clearly lost to Chang Sung Jung due to reverse ground and pound (mental note: coin catchy phrase for effective striking off one’s back). If he couldn’t control the Korean Zombie, then Hioki is going to absolutely blitz him. Unless you have world-class grappling credentials, Hioki is so skilled he’ll just put on a clinic.
In the past, Hioki has had focus problems, relying on his reach to win him points in striking exchanges, despite his greatest advantage being on the ground. Hioki has won some this way, and he’s not a bad kickboxer. However, he’s not a particularly good one either, so such antics could result in the biggest upset on the card.
However, Hioki has been a much more single-minded fighter recently, relentlessly pursuing takedowns and submissions. He should be able to advance without too much fuss. Hatsu Hioki by submission round 2.
Sengoku featherweight GP finale
In the predicted Sandro vs. Hioki final, Sandro will come in more beat up, but will have a striking advantage and enough submission defense to drag the fight out. It will be more a war of attrition won by the fighter that makes the fewest mistakes than by someone imposing their will and running away with it. If Sandro has a tougher fight with Omigawa and Hioki comes in fresh, then he should be able to wear Sandro down, take dominant position, and finish him either with strikes or an impressive submission. Hatsu Hioki is crowned the featherweight GP champion by TKO strikes. If things don’t go as expected, Omigawa can’t beat Hioki and Kanehara can’t beat anyone.
Kazuo Misaki (-250) vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura (+215)
What was formerly a pretty ordinary title eliminator has taken a turn for the weird. Misaki is fighting for free here, with his purse being donated to starving paraplegic orphans or some such, as punishment for striking a scooter cop with his door mirror while behaving in a lawless manner and fleeing a ticket for driving with a cellphone. Not exactly a teachable moment, that. Should Misaki win, he will immediately be suspended until Sengoku feels like he’s learned his lesson, which will probably coincide with the convenient time for his next bout.
Nakamura, despite early promise, never really distinguished himself in MMA. His problem is that, like his belly and face, his style is too well-rounded, without any notable defining features. It’s hard for anyone to just run over him, but hanging in there and being a competitor to top fighters seems to be his role at this point.
In this fight, Nakamura’s Ryo Chonanitis (inability to do anything to achieve offense, despite obvious skills and the ability to handle whatever your opponent throws at him) will kick in and he’ll drag Misaki to a decision. Misaki, while a skilled kickboxer with a killer beard, is not the kind of fighter that can just come at Nakamura and smash him up, like a Sokoudjou or Wanderlei. He’ll have to exploit his standup advantage to simply accrue points and avoid a ground battle, which would surely be hellacious to watch. Kazuo Misaki by decision.
Kazuyuki Fujita (+110) vs. Blagoy Alexandre Ivanov (-120)
This fight has gong show written all over it. For starters, Fujita has changed a bit since he nearly KO’d Fedor. It’s like a caterpillar going into a coccoon and a butterfly coming out, only instead the old rock-solid Fujita cracked open and a crappy, deflated version crawled out. However, he’s fighting a combat sambo expert with no MMA experience to speak of and extremely questionable training or ability.
Ivanov’s claim to fame is that he’s the guy that dethroned Fedor as the king of combat sambo, and that’s enough to get some people interested, but who knows if the guy can actually fight. He claims to have had 13 fights in the underground Bulgarian MMA scene, which is due for a deal with HBO any day now, I’m sure. Fujita has worn down over the years and is not half as strong or tough as he once was, but he’s still a guy that’s been in a real MMA fight before, so you have to give him the advantage here, since there are so many ways this can end horribly for a dubiously prepared neophyte. Kazuyuki Fujita stakes his claim for a rematch with Fedor with a first round TKO.
I’d bet Fujita at +110. This is high variance since so little information is available on Blagoy, but expectations shouldn’t be that he wins over even a diminished veteran.
Dan Hornbuckle (+350) vs. Akihiro Gono (-355)
Tune up fight for Gono here. Hornbuckle is a solid fighter that takes advantage of his athletic ability, superior training, and submission skill to beat up a bunch of local fighers in the midwest. Gono is defensively excellent on the mat, and generally epitomizes the idea of the wily veteran. It’s easy to forget, because of his youthful appearance and the absence of any obvious deterioration, but Gono started fighting professionally in 1994 and has fifty career fights. As a counterstriker, he’s very difficult to put significant damage on, and he has enough pop in his counterpunches to make opponents think twice about pursuing him. On the ground he seems to have an uncanny ability to sneak armbars onto opponents in scrambles, so don’t be shocked if he can tap out the “submission expert” here. You’ll have to give Hornbuckle credit for hanging tough here, but the result will be one-sided. Akihiro Gono by decision.
Clay French (+200) vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (-215)
This one will be a real snoozer. Mitsuoka will takedown and control French until Clay can’t do anything but hang on for the ride. Eiji Mitsuoka by decision. Yawn.
Matt Jaggers (+285) vs. Chan Sung Jung (-315)
If Matt Jaggers is seriously going to use the nickname “Jagger bomb” then I hope his brain explodes so that it can’t produce anything else that awful. Jung would love to drop some bombs on him, suffering as he is from that erroneous decision. Jung showed some ground chops to back up his crazy haymakers, so Jaggers really has his hands full finding a way to get advantage and create scrambles. I think in the end Jaggers will be swallowed up by the devouring aggression of the Zombie. Chan Sung Jung by TKO round 1.
Choi Mu Bae (+235) vs. Yoshihiro Nakao (-255)
Why do these guys fight? They’re both in reasonably good shape and not too worn down, but what is the motivation or goal? Better yet, how do they fight? Both of these guys seem to behave as if forced into the ring against their will and compelled to carry out effective self defense. They’re defensive fighters without being counter fighters, and this will turn into an ugly fight. Nakao can hit hard, but Bae can take an epic beating, so unless he hits him right on the button, this will consist of Nakao landing sporadic offense as Bae windmills, and far too much wrestling stalemate. Yoshihiro Nakao by decision.
Toru Harai (-200) vs. Shigeki Osawa (+185)
Quite an anonymous fight, but worth mentioning because of the betting odds and Osawa’s outstanding wrestling skills and tattoos. For someone that looks like a dirty gangster, Osawa has exceptionally clean wrestling technique, and will most likely be able to grind out yet another decision where he gets to try to figure out what to do with someone following the pin. He’s got an elite wrestling pedigree, but he doesn’t have the natural beatdown skills or covert headbutting techniques of Joe Warren. He won’t need them here, but it’d be exciting if he’d develop them. Shigeki Osawa by decision.
This is an aberrant line. Osawa is a big-time neophyte, but he could probably walk right off a wrestling team and beat someone like Harai. Bet some units.
My plays:
.25u on Hirota at +320 to win .80u
2u on Osawa at +185 to win 3.70u
1u on Fujita at +110 to win 1.1u
