Fight Picks and Predictions for Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers

By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)

What is the meaning of a Fedor vs. Rogers fight? It’s not clear. Rogers isn’t the cream of the crop, and he’s dangerously untested for a fight against an all-time pound-for-pound great like Fedor, but he does have the ability to threaten the heavyweight kingpin. Furthermore, all of this will be happening on the widest possible stage, being broadcast to millions of homes, expanding beyond even the reach of Zuffa’s media monster. If Rogers loses quickly, as Fedor’s recent opponents have, his humiliation will be complete, and those who have never seen him before will regard him as little more than a speed bump of a warm-up fight for the Russian. Conversely, if Fedor is indeed upset, most in the audience won’t grasp the import and will simply regard Fedor’s story as little more than marketing hype from the carnival-barker world of fight promotion.

The cruel realities of public indifference aside, fight fans must appreciate the fact that our niche sport is given airtime we could only dream of ten years ago, lets enjoy it while we can, and hope that Strikeforce steps up the quality of its packaging for a fight of such gravitas (i.e. puts the meat puppets back in their coffins and keeps a tight leash on the announcers).


Fedor Emelianenko (-550) vs. Brett Rogers (+425)

Rogers has never been pushed. He might not even realize that there are several levels of skill above where he currently is, since he’s crushed everyone and probably thinks that’s how MMA will always go for him. The story of his career has been the extreme brevity of his fights. Arlovski should have represented a chance for Rogers to be tested on that next level, but he ended up lacking the staying power to survive Rogers’ initial flurry and provide any kind of resistance. Aside from that, the stiffest challenge Rogers has had was nothing more than Abongo Humphrey’s ability to absorb punishment. So then, from his previous fights, we know that Rogers hits hard, that he throws in big combinations (unusual for a heavyweight and a big key to his success), and that he won’t gas out in six minutes against a smaller opponent that provides no resistance.

On the other hand, Fedor has proven himself to be the master of a huge variety of skills, offensive and defensive, with very few shortcomings. His game continues to evolve, as he showed excellent head movement in slipping Arlovski’s punches, building the kind of countering ability that produces spectacular knockouts in the sport of MMA.

So then, Rogers only has a few things to work with. Fedor’s cardio is not perfect, as he’s noticeably slowed towards the end of fights that went to decision, but his opponent has always been absolutely hammered by Fedor’s energy expenditure, and it’s extremely unlikely someone the size of Rogers has the endurance to try to win this late. Fedor is a human, and can be hurt by punches, so if Rogers can really put a good one on him, he could be knocked out, but Rogers’ striking is more power than placement, so he will struggle to land on a much faster and technically sound striker, despite his reach advantage. Fedor is a small heavyweight, and Rogers is very large. While the uncoordinated Semmy Schilt went down easily, Hong Man Choi and Mark Hunt both presented physical challenges to Fedor based on size alone, but, as in those fights, Fedor’s technical superiority in the clinch and on the ground will be enough to match Rogers’ size. Rogers’ most likely path to victory is a cut, as Fedor’s skin is fragile and partially slipped punches are the best way to create big cuts this side of headbutts.

There are a couple intangibles here that could lead to the upset. First, Fedor’s focus on the fight game may be slipping. His camp is impenetrable, but showing up untrained and out of shape and losing a world combat sambo championship is evidence that even Fedor sometimes rests on his laurels. Against a relative unknown like Rogers, Fedor may underestimate his opponent, which is the biggest mistake to make against Rogers. Rogers is a huge man, and very powerful, but unlike many heavyweights he throws punches in extended combinations. Most MMA striking is the equivalent of a joust, with fighters closing the distance, trading technique, and moving back out of range to re-set. For heavyweights, this exchange is typically single strikes, a “my overhand right vs. your jab” sort of scenario. It seems that many of Rogers’ opponents are genuinely surprised when his first few strikes are followed up with more, rather than this re-set, and he only needs to land a few to win a fight. If Fedor isn’t prepared to slip six punches instead of two or three, he could very easily be quite embarrassed.

When it comes down to it, though, this fight is a circus act. Not of the freak-show variety, but instead a high-wire act. Fedor is a trained expert, and if he simply executes his techniques and stays mindful of the danger, he will make the amazing look easy. However, the danger is real and if he loses concentration or doesn’t treat it with respect, he’ll wish he had a safety net.

Rogers has never had to take serious return fire, and he leaves himself hugely open to counters. This has all the potential to be another 30-second fight, perhaps even shorter, with Brett’s tendency to rush his opponent from the bell. Fedor Emelianenko by KO round 1.

Jason “Mayhem” Miller (+260) vs. Jake Shields (-300) (for vacant Strikeforce middleweight title)

Jason Miller continues to be the superball of MMA, bouncing unpredictably from meaningless fights and obscurity to high-stakes matches on the biggest stage. Here he seeks to validate the attention he’s received since bursting onto the scene by taking what would be the biggest scalp of his career: grappling standout Jake Shields.

Miller certainly has his work cut out for him. Shields, formerly absolutely horrible to watch, due to a completely smothering control game that accrued wins and audience ire in equal measure, has further improved his skills to become a lethal submission finisher, especially with his guillotine, although he’ll struggle mightily to finish off the grappling-savvy, double-tough, and gumby-limbed Miller.

What Shields hasn’t improved is his atrocious standup. Although fan forums are rife with talk of imagined fear in the eyes of various fighters at weigh-ins, much to the chagrin of more serious MMA fans, with Shields you often get a chance to see a professional MMA fighter show real fear, as he is absolutely petrified of getting hit, and has some of the most desperate standup in the game. His fight with Paul Daley looked as if Daley held a kitchen knife in slasher-movie fashion. Miller is not a lights-out striker, but he has actual skills and isn’t afraid to take a punch, so, if he can stop the takedowns, it could be a world of trouble for Shields.

The biggest concern for Shields should be Miller’s staying power. Shields has shown cardio problems, gassing badly against Daley despite being in the driver’s seat for the duration of the fight. With it being unlikely that Shields will simply run through Miller and submit him early, and Miller having the standup advantage and enough wrestling to make Shields work for takedowns, a five round fight could see Shields becoming extremely desperate later in the fight, letting Miller take over and upset the Gracie product.

The way to beat Miller, traditionally, has been to simply beat him down, as Trigg and GSP did, or take him down and run a high-level grappling control game, as Jacare did. If Shields can get the takedowns, it’s possible that he can advance position enough to get work in on the ground, but he simply doesn’t have the kind of firepower Trigg and GSP do to really put Miller out of commission. Shields is a superior wrestler and grappler, but with Miller’s decent wrestling and extreme squriming ability on his back, it will require an extreme amount of energy output from Shields to takedown and control for five rounds. Jason Miller may be outmatched technically, but this fight will harken back to Frank Shamrock vs. Tito Ortiz, reminding us that the ability to defend and outlast can be as important as the ability to dominate and attack. Jason Miller by TKO round 4.

Miller represents an excellent bet at these long odds, but do not go overboard, as gas is something that can be improved through hard work, and both men know this is a huge opportunity.

Gegard Mousasi (-470) vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (+450) (non-title match)

This is what happens if you get two victories over top ten fighters back-to-back with no real professional fighting experience: you get matched up as if you, yourself, are a top-ten fighter, you desperately try to re-create the magic that let you win earlier, and you lose and become a wasted prospect. Sokoudjou gets paid too much not to be put in big fights, but he desperately needs fights against game opponents that can actually challenge him but not put so much pressure on him that he must get the KO immediately.

Mousasi is a very well-rounded fighter with elite potential and a lot of maturity, as he showed in his clinical destruction of Babalu. His kickboxing is his best asset, so he shouldn’t have too much trouble picking Sokoudjou apart, as others have done before him, if he can stay away from the massive power. If he can get a trip takedown (difficult on the judo player, but not impossible, with Mousasi’s skill and speed) then he will run an absolute train on Sokoudjou, either simply pounding him or lining up a quick submission.

One interesting factor is that Mousasi has only recently moved up from 185, and he’s being put in with a very large, physical, and powerful true 205er, which will provide a wake-up call if Mousasi isn’t as big as he thinks he is. Even then, he should be able to outlast the notoriously small fuel tank of Sokoudjou and finish him off. Mousasi Gegard by TKO round 1.

Antonio Silva (+140) vs. Fabricio Werdum (-150)

Antonio Silva returns to the United States after his steroid suspension, and Werdum seeks to continue to rehab his own image after the emasculation at the very capable hands of Junior Cigano. Werdum looked much improved against Kyle and was very sharp in winning his division at the prestigious Abu Dhabi World Submission Wrestling Championships a few weeks ago.

On the feet, Silva has a big advantage, with a little bit of technique and a lot of power and athleticism. Despite being a good bit bigger than Werdum, he’ll likely be faster than the lanky and awkward Werdum. One danger for Silva is that his typical game consists of crushing takedowns and vicious ground and pound, which plays directly into Werdum’s elite grappler. So far, nobody has been able to get anything done on the ground with Werdum and Silva will not be the first.

The big question is how Werdum deals with Silva on the feet. Werdum has length and some natural power, but he’s never been anything but awkward with his striking, even when beating up a mentally broken Gabriel Gonzaga. His shot is horrible, but, as Brandon Vera found out, Werdum can do some surprisingly good takedowns from the clinch, and if he gets top position on Silva and can resist the giant’s initial surge in the scramble, he could easily run game on the big man. Similarly, he can likely sweep Silva if he winds up playing guard, and achieve dominant positions.

This should be a closely contested fight, with the more prepared fighter beating the first man to make a mistake. While Werdum can submit Silva, Silva doesn’t have the kind of hands Junior Cigano does, so he doesn’t have a very good shot at simply plunking the typically tough Werdum. The fight will likely come down to control and positioning, so the most likely result is Fabricio Werdum by decision.

Marloes Coenen vs. Roxanne Modafferi (CBS reserve fight)

Hopefully a high-caliber fight like this can make the telecast, even if, in traditional female fight fashion, one of the competitors is fighting well above her ideal weight. Coenen, coming off a upset loss to Judo convert and MMA neophyte Cindy Dandois, will enjoy a significant size advantage over Modafferi at 145lbs, although that wasn’t enough to get the victory in the pair’s first tilt, which Modafferi took by split decision.

In the end, technique will win out again, as Modafferi has the skills to stay on top of Coenen, negating most of the size advantage and edging Coenen out on points. Roxanne Modafferi by decision.

Jeff Curran vs. Sam Thao
Curran is desperately in need of a win after going 0-4 in his last four fights, albeit against elite fighters. He’s getting what he needs here against Sam Thao, a natural 125 slugger with very little experience coming up in weight to fight a big, veteran, and very tough fighter with superior grappling skills. Thao isn’t going to knock out someone as tough as Curran, and while Curran is a gatekeeper at this point in his career, a true gatekeeper shuts the door in the face of fighters that aren’t ready for the big time. Jeff Curran by submission round 1.

My plays
Jason Miller 2u at (+260) to win 5.2u

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