Fight Picks and Predictions for TUF 10 Finale: More Kimbo

By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)

This Saturday brings us the finale of the tenth (can you believe it?) installment of the now-venerable “Ultimate Fighter” television series. Despite earlier swearing to never again feature the distressingly untalented heavyweight division, Dana White again dipped into that oh-so-shallow pond because that’s where Kimbo Slice lives, and Kimbo gets eyeballs on the television. That’s why there was no fighting required to get into the house and why, despite being unceremoniously booted out of contention in his first fight on the show, Kimbo received such an enormous share of the airtime. It’s also why he’s getting a hand-picked opponent who is fighting above his natural weight.

Leaving aside Kimbo and all that he represents about the harsh realities of selling a product, there are a couple quality fights on this card, which might make up for how horrible all the fights were throughout the season.


Roy Nelson (-210) vs. Brendan Schaub (+190) (“TUF 10” tournament final)

Nelson came on to the show as a heavy favorite to make the finals, and even looked heavier than usual. His performance on the show was underwhelming, to say the least. On the feet he was repeatedly tagged by lesser opposition, and his takedowns were a bit flabby. On the ground, he completely ran over his opponents, but being one-dimensional is pretty unimpressive at this point in his career.

Schaub showed natural athleticism and striking acumen, although he also had the unfortunate distinction of being taken down in all of his fights on TUF. His jiu-jitsu looked solid, although he will certainly give up the grappling advantage to Nelson should the fight hit the ground.

This fight is Schaub’s to lose. Nelson doesn’t throw straight punches and is fairly short for the division, which leads to him getting hit square in the head against rangier fighters with good hands. If Schaub has stepped up his takedown defense, he could throw a real coming-out party here by dispatching such a highly-regarded veteran. However, if Nelson can get him down, Schaub will immediately be on the back foot and have to work to swing the momentum his way again.

Working in Schaub’s favor is the fact that Nelson, despite excellent grappling technique, is not a lights-out submission threat, which gives someone like Schaub a chance to defend and survive to re-assert control later in the fight. On the other hand Schaub has the power to finish the fight any time he lands cleanly.

The X-factor here is cardio. Nelson, despite his blubber, has historically been able to last the duration without too much deterioration, and Schaub, despite being a great athlete and training at a good camp, has never been pushed like that. That does leave the opportunity for this bout to present one of MMA’s more amusing spectacles: the fighter with nice abs gassing out and being worn down by one with a swinging belly. This is going to be a close fight, but with Nelson being so hittable, Schaub’s power, and the difference in training rigor, the pick has to be Brendan Schaub by decision.

+190 is good for Schaub, but, as I mentioned on my twitter, I picked him up at +220 and couldn’t be happier with it.

Matt Hamill (+250) vs. Jon Jones (-260)

This is the most interesting fight on the card. Jones is a phenomenal talent that continues to show enormous improvement in every fight, and Hamill is a very tough test, even if he’s limited as a fighter and hasn’t shown much improvement.

Hamill, perhaps because of the color of his skin, has some of the most overlooked athletic gifts in the sport. The guy is a frightening powerhouse, completely ragdolling basically anyone he gets his hands on with raw power, and beyond that his wrestling has never been challenged, despite fighting several excellent wrestlers. As if that weren’t enough, he’s a virtual terminator, walking through punches with a monster chin and battering opponents with technically awful but very powerful caveman punches.

However, Jones has the skill-set to overcome Hamill’s physical gifts through gifts of his own and correctly applied technique. Jones has the most consistently long reach in the UFC (at 84”) and uses it well, keeping opponents away from him with a jab he’s diligently improved as well as his better-known ability to deliver crazy spinning attacks. Hamill is very, very hittable, and will move straight into this jab over and over again, which could lead to this fight getting very bloody.

While Jones versatile striking will be enough to out-score Hamill, it’s not likely he can knock him out. The real potential fireworks come if these two lock up for some wrestling. Hamill has thrown around even fighters with very impressive credentials (Mark Munoz got absolutely dominated despite his NCAA championship and international wrestling experience) but Jones has also transitioned his wrestling skills very well to MMA, hitting lateral drops and other high-amplitude throws with no hesitation whatsoever, leading to some opponents noticeably avoiding going near him for fear of being dumped head-over-heels. It will be very interesting to see if one of these men can assert wrestling dominance over the other or if they’ll just cancel each other out.

Cardio is another big question. Both Hamill and Jones have faded badly in the third round of fights before, and facing a wrestler that can provide an actual challenge could quickly wear out either of them if they aren’t properly conditioned.

With Jones’ more technically sound striking, his variety of attacks and takedowns, and the fact that he develops and grows as a fighter between each fight while Hamill just slightly improves his existing skill set, Jon Jones should be favored to win this fight. How it actually plays out will say a lot about the future of both men in the UFC. Jon Jones by decision.

Houston Alexander (-255) vs. Kevin “Kimbo Slice” Ferguson (+235)

A heavy-handed brawler that burst onto the scene with a couple of victories but mostly a bad-ass image, only to see much of that fame and excitement fade away due to embarrassing losses to unheralded opponents, the complete absence of a ground game, and other hallmarks of a fighter woefully unprepared for the big leagues. Perhaps these two are fighting because they feel the other has stolen their identity, sort of like Jet Li’s “The One”.

The Kimbo backlash is in full effect, with even typically rational analysts giving Kimbo credit for little more in the way of skills than a Giant Silva or Japanese comedian. His reputation has fallen so far that many see Alexander, a very flawed fighter that is the butt of many a joke himself, as a virtual lock over the Bahamian brawler.

That is foolishness. Alexander is, at best, no better than Kimbo. He has a poor chin, a completely missing ground game, and he has worse hands than Kimbo. Furthermore, Kimbo will have a size advantage, with Houston not being a particularly big 205-pounder and Kimbo being a big 215-pounder (the catch-weight contracted for this bout).

More analysis is not really called for. This is a repeat of the James Irvin fight for Alexander. Whoever lands first will score the knockout, and the fighter with better hands is more likely to be that man. Kimbo Slice by KO round 1.

Kimbo at +235 is a great bet, although he’ll probably be even more of an underdog by fight night. Don’t go overboard, since Houston is very capable of knocking his spark out.

Frankie Edgar (-545) vs. Matt Veach (+450)

Unless Veach has improved massively since being battered by Matt Grice and then being gifted with a horrible stoppage victory, this is going to be a very painful fight for him. Edgar is technically better in literally every aspect of the fight game and far more experienced at this point. Veach is pretty tough and Edgar doesn’t have big finishing power, so Veach is in for a 15-minute beating here and has basically no recourse unless Edgar completely loses it and walks onto a fight-ending punch. Frankie Edgar by decision.

Marcus Jones (-305) vs. Matt Mitrione (+260)

The most astonishing thing about Jones is how slickly he passes guard despite being such an awkward, enormous, and ogre-like man. It’s very unusual to see a heavyweight with that particular skill on the ground. Mitrione is obviously extremely limited on the floor himself, so someone like Jones with natural grappling acumen and some chops on the floor will look like Demian Maia against him.

Mitrione doesn’t hold much promise as a fighter, with little going for him other than some natural athleticism and brawling ability. However, Jones is so awkward and stiff on the feet, and apparently incapable of sponging up damage, that Mitrione’s natural power could easily crack his chin and put him out.

This is a toss-up fight. If Jones can simply mummy-walk through some punches and tip Mitrione over, he should be able to run game on him and pick up a submission. If the standup is more protracted, Mitrione has a great chance of catching him with a punch and putting him down. Since Mitrione is much bigger and more physically gifted than the opposition Schaub beat on the show, he should be more resistant to being bullied over than they were. Matt Mitrione by TKO round 1.

Mitrione is good for a small bet. This fight could quickly devolve into an unskilled slopfest, so it’s best not to get too much money involved in a crapshoot like that.

James McSweeney (-113) vs. Darrill Schoonover (-105)

McSweeney is a jerk and a bully, but the strangest part of his antics on the show was his insistence that he had some kind of impressive stand-up technique. The fact is that, while he threw an impressive variety of strikes, whenever he exchanged with another fighter, even one that did little more than flail around (Wes Shivers) he was repeatedly tagged and hurt. He just has trouble keeping his head away from someone with legit hands. Schoonover isn’t a great fighter, but he does have some hands and that’s all he really needs to bust up McSweeney. This won’t be a pretty fight either way, as McSweeney does have a tendency to start running away once he gets hit and generally become very inactive and retiring. Darrill Schoonover by KO round 2.

Jon Madsen (+325) vs. Justin Wren (-345)

Maybe one of these two can pick up a win over some Neil Grove type on a UK card. Otherwise the loser will be right out of the UFC, with the victory soon to follow. Wren is slightly better at everything than Madsen, so he’ll probably take this one if he doesn’t get hit too hard to run out of steam first. This will probably be a terrible fight to watch. Justin Wren by decision.

Brian Stann (-110) vs. Rodney Wallace (+110)

This fight will come down to whether the 5’8” Wallace can get takedowns on the much taller and very strong Stann. On the feet Stann is just too damaging, even if he lacks refinement, but on the ground, Wallace will use Stann as a doormat, since “All American” apparently means “No BJJ”. Stann is very strong, but he’s also very robotic and awkward, which makes me think a fireplug of a man like Wallace can get in on his hips and knock him over. Look for Wallace to advance to a submission shortly after getting the takedown. Rodney Wallace by submission round 1.

Dennis Hallman (+200) vs. John Howard (-240)

Hallman returned to the UFC just as Baroni did, and he’ll be sent right back out just as Baroni was. Howard is a developing fighter, but this is a step down in competition for him, giving him another chance to work on his interesting and scramble-heavy game. The main danger for Howard is his tendency to slow down badly late in fights. If Hallman is ready to fight hard in the third, he may have a chance to turn it around, but Howard will be at too much of an advantage to let Hallman get that far without significant wear and tear. John Howard by decision.

Mark Bocek (-410) vs. Joe Brammer (+325)

Bocek has very poor gas for a lightweight, dramatically gassing out when he doesn’t get his way, but that’s basically all that Brammer has in his favor. Bocek may not have the most dominant wrestling in the sport, but he has one of the biggest arsenals of takedown techniques, and he has lights-out, extremely high-level jiu-jitsu. Brammer has been on a diet of very poor competition, so stepping up and fighting a legitimate gatekeeper like Bocek will be quite a rude awakening. Mark Bocek by submission round 1.

1u on Schaub at (+220) to win 2.2u
1u on Kimbo at (+235) to win 2.35u
.5u Matt Mitrione at (+260) to win 1.3u