By 
In the MMA universe, what is the role of Strikeforce? They have Fedor and a few other elite fighters, but none of their divisions is well developed. They have the best and most marketable female fighters on the planet, and the world’s biggest stage for Women’s MMA, but they have put on almost no female fights not involving Gina Carano or Cris Cyborg. Through CBS and showtime they have amazingly wide reach, but they use these channels to broadcast Herschel Walker and Bobby Lashley or Cung Le and Frank Shamrock. A decidedly mixed bag then.
The strangest thing about Strikeforce is how much it lacks its own identity. This is probably due to the fact that they more or less throw away their undercards for some cheap ticket sales by hiring local fighters with little to offer aside from the ability to sell tickets to other locals, who are not brought back for further fights because they don’t have much potential. This means that all main-card talent must be purchased on the auction block, typically from Japan, so you end up with champions defending against fighters that have never fought in the organization before and thus have no cachet aside from with hardcores who watched their fights overseas.
Thus there is no distinguishable brand identity or relationship between the various Strikeforce events, making each one functionally just a generic fight card frozen in amber, unaffected by previous cards and with no bearing on future ones.
On to the Strikeforce: Miami picks and predictions:
Nick Diaz (-260) vs. Marius Zaromskis (+217)
(for vacant welterweight title)
MMA’s king of heady bud faces off against the king of booting heads. Zaromskis emerged from relative obscurity with his shocking dark-horse win in the Dream grand prix last year, leaving a swatch of headkick knockouts behind him. This is the best test Diaz has had in a long time, which is pretty sad given how one-dimensional Zaromskis is. Despite his propensity for headkicks, the Lithuanian is a striker more in the vein of a Manhoef than a Mirko Crocop. He lacks on defense and wildly pursues a finish through sheer aggression, exposing himself to counters and takedowns. When he’s not moving forward throwing strikes, he’s very out of his element, being hittable when moving backwards and hopeless on the ground.
Diaz should be able to frustrate Zaromskis by tangling up incoming strikes with his long arms standing in his traditional mean-mug zombie stance, and keep swarming on him with punches to keep from giving Zaromskis the distance he needs to throw killer kicks. If the fight hits the ground, Diaz should have a cakewalk, but on the feet his incredible durability means that even if he swallows one of Zarmoskis’ legs whole, he probably won’t get knocked out and will recover. A five round fight here really favors Diaz, as Zaromskis fights at a frantic pace and wears himself out. Three headkick knockouts in a row is impressive, but one shouldn’t forget that Zaromskis only narrowly edged out Ikemoto last year.
Diaz will weather the storm, keep his hands in Zaromskis’ face, and eventually win this on the floor, probably with ground and pound. Diaz by TKO round 2.
Some see value in Zaromskis as the underdog, with Diaz being hittable and Zaromskis being such a KO machine, but it’s hard for me to see anything but the world’s most perfect on-the-button kick putting Diaz down for the count, with his beard being so manly. Even if Zaromskis connects, it’s more likely he just ends up getting stuck in Diaz’s guard and stalled for a recovery, so I don’t like a play here, especially since Diaz hasn’t overly impressed me recently.
Champ Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos (-550) vs. Marloes Coenen (+475)
(for women’s featherweight title)
Cris Cyborg is extremely strong and hits very hard for a female fighter, but even her one-sided drubbing of Gina Carano showed that she has a long way to go to be a well-rounded fighter, as is often the case with someone that is able to use sheer physicality to simply monster most of their opponents. She pulled mount on multiple occasions and otherwise just wilded out and flailed in the process of beating Carano’s ass. Coenen isn’t as big or strong as Carano, but she’s a much savvier submission fighter and won’t be nearly as forgiving if Cyborg gives up position like that.
On the other hand, since she’s not as big and strong, it’s very likely that any attempts to take Cyborg down will simply result in her getting thrown around like a ragdoll and beaten up. That’s what Cyborg does best, and this is a very boom or bust fight for both fighters. Coenen cannot take the heat Cyborg can dish out, and Cyborg doesn’t have the technical wherewithal to defend against Coenen if she gets going on the ground.
If Coenen is going to avoid getting pulverized, she’s going to have to put Cyborg on the defensive early, and either finish her quickly or force her to continually use her strength to escape and wear herself out. If Cyborg is ever in a position to really uncork her offense, she’s going to crush Coenen viciously. That viciousness is why people watch Cyborg, and it’s probably what fans will get to see. Cyborg by KO round 1.
I think +475 is underrating Coenen’s ground advantage, so, despite the fact that she’s likely going to get bashed up and look like she had no chance, I think she’s a smart play here because of Cyborg’s ground deficiencies and the long odds.
Robbie Lawler (+160) vs. Melvin Manhoef (-185)
Supposedly styles make fights, but in this case, psychology does. There’s no need to get too cerebral here, but the fact is that what’s in Lawler’s head before the fight determines whether or not we’ll get to see what’s in it splattered all over the ring. Manhoef is one of the biggest hitters in the game, but is incredibly prone to brain farts on the ground and not a great wrestler. Lawler is a big hitter that often struggles on the ground, but he has a decided advantage in the grappling in this fight, and a disadvantage standing. If he chose to use some of what he learned training all those years with a bunch of wrestler/grapplers, he could probably take Manhoef down and pound on him for the win.
However, Robbie Brawler doesn’t care about gameplanning or anything other than seeing who is the toughest. That’s why he just goes out there and trades, to see who hits harder and who can take more. Neither one of these guys has a great chin, but Manhoef hits much harder and much faster, so he’s going to take Lawler’s head right off with his absurd, cartoonish power. Then Lawler will be sad. Manhoef by KO round 1.
I really like a play on Manhoef at -185, but I was able to hop on an earlier line at -160. Manhoef’s aggression means there is the possibility he runs straight onto a punch and goes spark out, but Lawler has a giant head and not a lot of defense.
Bobby Lashley (-1200) vs. Wes Sims (+650)
Lashley is clearly not Lesnar, and needs time and practice to grow. Wes Sims is no good for anything, and is going to get his face hammered on. When this fight comes on would be a good time to go on a beer run, if you don’t have the sick sense of humor that makes watching complete gong shows high entertainment. Lashley by TKO round 1.
If you are tempted by huge underdog odds to bet on Sims, please remember that he did basically nothing but lose on TUF as a professional fighter in 2009 and took this fight on zero notice. He’s just here for a paycheck.
Greg Nagy (+250) vs. Herschel Walker (-325)
Herschel Walker is making his MMA debut, but I’m to understand he had a long-tenued career in the Footbrawl promotion, which is some kind of amateur organization that uses team rules (like ZST’s tag team bouts) and lots more protective padding alongside rules that limit the amount of contact. I don’t know much about that sort of thing, but supposedly he’s a fantastic athlete and has a big following. Greg Nagy is a total scrub brought in to lose to him. I think Nagy will do his job well, since watching his RITC fights made me want to kill him, so if Walker has been doing a serious study of tape, he’ll probably be so angry he decapitates Nagy Mortal Kombat style.
This fight is a joke, and I feel dirty for discussing it. Walker by KO round 1.
Some people are betting Nagy, since, while power and strength are often the last things to go as you age, chin is often the first. Furthermore it’s always a guess what will happen the first time someone gets jacked in the face. I think the smart money should be on someone in Strikeforce knowing what they’re doing when they go scrub-fishing, since Nagy doesn’t look to have any power or punching ability, so even +250 is unbettable.
PRELIMINARY CARD (broadcast on EASportsMMA.com)
Jay Hieron (-295) vs. Joe Riggs (+275)
Remember when Joe Riggs was promoted as a fighter that was going to be a serious force at 170 once he figured out his cut and worked on his mental game, because of his young age and physical potential? Well, now it’s obvious that he’s never going to get there, and moreover, is much deteriorated even from what he used to be. His fight with Baroni was abysmal, and Hieron is a much better fighter than Baroni.
Hieron has had terrible luck in his career lately, first being sucked into the vortex left by the collapse of Affliction and now, after thinking he’d be challenging Diaz for the title, being pushed out of that match and off the main card entirely in favor of squash matches with fighters who are known more for what they’ve done outside of fighting. Maybe he can console himself with the fact that he has a good shot at challenging Diaz and beating him after he takes off Rigg’s head.
At this point in his career, Riggs doesn’t offer much beyond some okay hands, some physical power, and some rough ground and pound that will smash up local-level fighters. Sprinkle on top the general seasoning that comes with being a veteran of the sport, and you still don’t have much to offer high level fighters. Hieron has legit hands with real power in them, combined with good takedown defense. He’s going to hit Riggs early, and if Riggs lasts long enough, Hieron will wear him out by defending his desperation takedowns. Riggs has never done a great job absorbing punishment, so he’s likely to get clipped and put out early in this fight. Hieron by KO round 1.
I like a bet on Hieron here because I give Riggs no credit. I’m limiting my risk though because I don’t want too much of a negative swing to be possible from any play.
My plays:
.5u on Marloes Coenen at (+475) to win 2.38u
3.2u on Melvin Manhoef at (-161) to win 2u
2.95u on Hieron to win 1u
