Picks and Predictions for UFC Live on Versus: Jones vs. Vera

Jones is the new Brandon Vera. He’s phenomenally gifted physically, seems to have a natural talent for the fight game, and has been turning in scintillating performances that assure all viewers that this kid will one day be fighting for the title. That’s where Vera was before he ran into Tim Sylvia, an awkward veteran with defensive skills that crippled Vera’s offense. Could Vera be Tim Sylvia for Jon Jones?

On paper, Vera is all you could want from a fighter. He has a high-level wrestling background, and took naturally to submission grappling and kickboxing. When he’s “on” in any of these fields, he’s a huge threat, but he’s very rarely “on” these days, whether it’s offering almost no significant offense against a creaky old man that couldn’t take him down or fighting defensively against an opponent he massively outclassed, Vera just hasn’t had his head in the game.

Jones is a huge question mark in the grappling department, since his wrestling is so phenomenally good that he just throws opponents to the mat and crushes them, or disengages after a toss and gets back to sporadic offense. However, while Vera’s credentials would suggest he could be a submission threat, he’s been weak off his back and has only pursued the submission when it’s staring him in the face.

On the feet, Jones has looked like a monster, throwing crazy spinning attacks and flying all over the ring, only to lateral-drop any opponent that tries to close the distance. Vera, with his very slick striking, should be able to cut right through that and attack Jones’ legs or work punches through what is still a porous guard. The question is will Vera actually capitalize on the opportunities that will be there?

Jones has never dealt with much adversity aside from some early cardio issues, as most fighters that have had a taste of his offense shut down and don’t offer much return fire after the first few minutes. Vera enters the fight already shut down, but Jones will not be able to get as much momentum going in his favor against Vera, who is by far the strongest fighter defensively he has ever fought. Fans could learn a lot about Jones by how he handles a fight where he isn’t in the driver’s seat and going 90 miles an hour.

Vera could win this fight, but he’s not going to fix his mental issues, ever, so he won’t. Jon Jones by decision.

Junior Dos Santos (-280) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+260)

Gonzaga is a monstrously powerful hitter with a crushing top game and limited ability to absorb punishment. Dos Santos is a double-tough freight train of move-forward slugging, with a big question mark on the ground. Nine times out of ten, he’s going to trade shots with Gonzaga, land more frequently and fold the big man up. If Gonzaga forgoes the slugging that he has been doing in every fight since he KO’d Crocop, and actually tries to get the fight on the ground, this becomes an interesting proposition, as fans will learn whether Dos Santos’ time with Nogueira has benefited him more than it did Edson Drago. With the firepower in the cage between these two, this fight will probably be the most spectacular of the night. That’s likely bad news for Gonzaga. Junior Dos Santos by KO round 1.

Paul Buentello (+300) vs. Cheick Kongo (-400)

What a mess. Buentello is a good striker with poor physical fitness and a weak mental game. Kongo is a great striker with terrible in-ring smarts and glaring liabilities that Buentello is not positioned to take advantage of. What Buentello can do well (hit people in the face) is the area where Kongo is least weak, since he has a bulletproof jaw. Kongo has reach on Buentello and kicks well, especially to the body where Buentello has been vulnerable in the past, robbing Buentello of his best weapon, the jab. If Paul tries to close the distance, he’s going to get clinched up and have his guts kneed in, just like he did against Overeem. Kongo will look very impressive here, which will quickly be forgotten next time someone takes him to the ground. Kongo by TKO round 2.


James Irvin (-135) vs. Alessio Sakara (+120)

You know the UFC is scraping the bottom of the barrel when they bring Irvin back, although it’s impressive he’s managed to make it this far without pulling out due to injury. Sakara is on a two-fight win streak, but he’s still failed to make any real waves in the UFC, and has fallen victim to big hitters in the past. If Irvin has anything going for him, it’s the fact that he hits very, very hard, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him clock Sakara and that be it. On the other hand, this is Irvin’s first fight at 185, and he wasn’t a small 205 in the first place, so a much diminished version of James Irvin (hard to imagine a diminished Irvin, I know) could show up and get schooled by a decent fighter in Sakara.

Irvin’s flakiness knows no bounds, while Sakara is just a mid-level fighter that can’t beat the big dogs. This is going to be ugly and uninspiring, regardless of what happens, but it’s just hard to see Irvin coming back strong. Alessio Sakara by decision.

Don’t bet this fight because you’ll just end up with a bad taste in your mouth.


PRELIMINARY CARD

Shannon Gugerty (+325) vs. Clay Guida (-400)

Gugerty has no way to win this. Guida can be hurt by strong strikers, but Gugerty is not that. If you’re really slick, you might convince him to fall into a submission, but Gugerty isn’t at that level. Instead, he’s just going to fill a spot and let one of the UFC’s most popular mid-level fighters work him to death in a high-elevation fight that favors Guida’s conditioning. Guida isn’t an offensive powerhouse, so unless Gugerty’s cardio really craps out in the thin atmosphere to the point he can’t defend himself, this will probably be a one-sided decision win for Guida. Clay Guida by decision.

Eliot Marshall (+160) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (-197)

This fight is the dream fight for someone that needs to go to sleep. Both of these guys are pretty good fighters, but both of them are poisonous to watch. Matyushenko is slowing down as he closes in on 40, but against unprepared fighters he can still clinch and grind to a decision. Marshall is a very strong guy in the clinch, as Jason Brilz was disappointed to find out. Neither one of these fighters is going to light the world on fire with their boxing, but both are competent enough to give most opponents trouble. The difference is that Vlad isn’t as tough as he used to be, and Marshall has very long arms that he uses well in straight punches. This fight is guaranteed to go to decision, but Marshall should be the more active and offensive fighter as he frustrates Matyushenko and scores occasional punches. Eliot Marshall by decision.

At this point Eliot’s boring style should excite bettors, as it has let his ability to actually pick up wins fly under the radar. I think at these decent underdog odds, Marshall is a pretty good play.

Darren Elkins (+145) vs. Duane “Bang” Ludwig (-160)

Ludwig is what he is at this point. A decent enough journeyman with technical kickboxing skills, exploitable weaknesses on the ground, and a mediocre chin. However, he’s well established in that middle tier, and Darren Elkins is another fighter with a big record of wins over very low-quality opponents. Elkins traditionally looks very awkward on the feet and just dives straight into the legs of the scrub opponents he fights, who cannot even begin to defend on the ground. Ludwig will probably dump muay thai all over his face and mess his world up. Duane Ludwig by KO round 1.

Ludwig is mediocre, but I still feel confident taking him at -160 over someone with a bunch of wins over fighters with no ground training.

John Howard (-205) vs. Daniel Roberts (+180)

Fact: Rogan and Goldberg will call both of these fighters athletic and explosive within the first round. Daniel Roberts is a good grappler, but has mostly fought shoddy opposition. Howard is not elite, but he has proven himself against the kind of UFC-caliber opposition that Roberts has never fought. This will likely be the first time Roberts has had to deal with someone that can escape his ground work and turn the tables on him with punishment. Howard’s one weakness has been that he has trouble establishing dominant position with limited wrestling skills, and, despite good defensive grappling, can get trapped on his back in a defensive posture. Roberts likely won’t be in a position to take advantage of that, instead being on the back foot because of Howard’s offensive prowess. John Howard by Decision.


Chase Gormley (+190) vs. Brendan Schaub (-200)

On paper, Schaub is being set up to get back on track after his humiliating KO at the grease-covered hands of Roy Nelson. Schaub displayed only marginal ground skills after being put on his back on the TUF reality show, and Gormley, with a strong wrestling background, could find himself in a position to finish what Demico Rogers couldn’t. Bodyshop is a very serious team of fit athletes, a far cry from much of the opposition Schaub found on the Spike Tv product, so don’t be surprised if Gormley can get the upset here. That said, Schaub is probably too much for Gormley to handle right now, so he will probably take control in the fight in the second after weathering a tough first round. Brendan Schaub by TKO round 2.

Julio Paulino (+300) vs. Mike Pierce (-400)

Paulino has a record inflated by beating up regional journeymen. Mike Pierce is simply not going to be bullied in this fight. He should crush Paulino by bashing him about the head and shoulders with his big, big power. Mike Pierce by KO round 1.

Jason Brilz (-135) vs. Eric Schafer (+130)

Jason Brilz is a very good wrestler. Schafer is a pretty good jiu-jitsu guy with okay standup. Brilz’s biggest weakness is that he’s a one-dimensional wrestler, and Schafer’s is that he can’t wrestle and doesn’t deal well with punishment. It’s not likely that Schafer has the submission savvy to tap Brilz off his back, and he certainly doesn’t have the takedown defense to win any other way. This will be a one-sided grinding affair. Jason Brilz by decision.

The style matchup is too favorable to Brilz here for him to be this small of a fighter. Schafer looked better than he is in his loss to Bader because Bader wears himself out even when he’s winning a fight. Brilz won’t have the explosive offense of a Bader, but he’ll be grinding until the final bell. I took Brilz early at -160, but the line has improved to -135 if you didn’t make the play.

My Plays:

1.6u on Jason Brilz at (-160) to win 1u
1.65u on Duane Ludwig at (-165) to win 1u
1u on Eliot Marshall at +160 to win 1.6u