Fight Picks and Predictions for UFN 21: TUF 11 Infomercial

By Nicholas Bailey

UFC Fight Night 21 has very little relevance other than serving as a block of programming that fight fans actually want to watch that will allow the UFC to advertise for a program most MMA fanatics are probably very, very tired of, but will nevertheless immediately follow the UFC Fight Night 21 broadcast. By now anyone that knows anything realizes that any fighter that really is a hot young talent will simply get a UFC contract directly, with only marginal talents signing themselves into ultra-long-term contracts just to get a chance to make it into the UFC through the TUF program.

It’s appropriate that Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz are the coaches for this season: two men that helped build the product into what it is today, but have very little relevance to the sport in the modern era. That’s TUF in a nutshell, and the reality television histrionics of this preserved-in-tar reanimated rivalry won’t convince anyone that Tito, Chuck, or anyone else on the program has anything major to contribute to the big show.

At least we get a surprisingly interesting style matchup in Gomi vs. Florian, and the laugh riot of Struve vs. Nelson.

Kenny Florian (-300) vs. Takanori Gomi (+275)

Kenny Florian is not going to knock out Takanori Gomi. There are many unknown quantities in this fight, but that’s one you can take to the bank. Gomi still has all the tools that made him an elite lightweight, but his focus has been complete crap recently. Much of this comes from Gomi eschewing preparing in a structured camp format and instead just training with his students, which is not the same level of preparation at all. For this fight Gomi has done that again, with the addition of about a week’s time spent at Extreme Couture and some other gyms in Japan, which translates to a mixed bag of preparation.

Gomi has several things working his favor in this fight. He has a brick for a head, rendering him all but impervious to Florian’s lukewarm power, and capable of recovering even if Florian lands a perfect counter combination right on the button like he dropped Guida with. Furthermore, Gomi has very heavy hands, and Florian did not deal well with BJ Penn’s power at all, backing off and becoming offensively inert once he got cracked. If Florian gets tagged up by Gomi, not only will it look great to the judges, but it will probably lead to Florian retreating into his shell again, which does not win rounds. Lastly, Florian relies on his movement and footwork very heavily, which works great against straight-ahead fighters like Guida or Huerta, but will not succeed against someone that actually knows how to move like a boxer and cut off the ring, which Gomi can do when he chooses to.

Gomi is also an excellent wrestler, and he should be able to work in Kenny’s guard with ground and pound, which is the style that won him the Shooto belt so long ago. The strange thing about Gomi’s grappling is that he’s very competent at working top position, but if he’s put on his back, he’s very, very bad. Florian has greatly increased his physical strength, so if he’s able to wrestle Gomi to the ground or counter him and stun him enough to take a dominant position, Kenflo could put Gomi in serious trouble.

This fight is going to come down to how disciplined Gomi was in preparing and how Florian deals with Gomi’s handspeed and power. Against BJ Penn, Florian looked completely lost after getting tagged initially, and never seemed to get back in the fight. If Gomi comes prepared to box properly instead of throwing wild punches and can fight hard for three rounds, he should be able to cruise to victory. If not, Florian can pick him apart. Takanori Gomi by decision.

Gomi is being undervalued because Kenflo has looked impressive against fighters he matched up favorably with and because Gomi hasn’t been impressive lately, although he should have been awarded the victory against Golyaev and handled a better striker than Kenny in Bang Ludwig. Florian’s submission game isn’t as lethal as Kitaoka’s either. At these long odds Gomi has to be worth a play.

Roy Nelson (-325) vs. Stefan Struve (+265)

Nelson might get in trouble for greasing, being as this event is held in the Bojangles Coliseum. This fight is a bit like Semmy Schilt vs. Akira Shoji, having seemingly been put together for the visual gag of a giant skinny guy fighting a short fat guy. Nelson isn’t really ready to step into the top ten of the heavyweight division, but if Struve struggled mightily with Paul Buentello, Nelson can really work the “Skyscraper” over, either on the feet punching through Struve’s under-utilized reach advantage or on the ground, putting his weight on the younger fighter and wearing him down. The two dangers for Nelson are wearing out in the third round while Struve is still game and the fact that Struve’s length lets him attack in unusual ways that are hard to prepare for, which has let him submit better grapplers before. If Nelson can really trap Struve, a finish becomes a question of how much energy he’s willing (or able) to expend to really do damage with ground and pound. Struve will probably be too awkward to put away. Roy Nelson by decision.

Nate Quarry (-275) vs. Jorge Rivera (+220)

Both of these guys hit hard, but Quarry has a good chin and Rivera is old and fragile. Quarry is also terrible defensively and just goes out there like a robot to trade blows, while Rivera at least has some technique and should be able to punch straight through Quarry’s nonexistant defenses. Quarry gets hit solidly in almost all of his fights, and Rivera hits hard enough and is experienced enough not to let Quarry recover. Quarry has a good chance at clipping Rivera if this turns into a slugfest, but with Rivera’s ability to snipe from range or pound from on top, he stands a very good chance of winning this. Jorge Rivera by KO round 1.

I like a bet here, with Rivera such an underdog, but I’m not going to go wild because of Rivera’s age and Quarry’s power. It wouldn’t be the first time Quarry simply waded through and knocked out someone that was better than him technically.

Ross Pearson (-210) vs. Dennis Siver (+170)

Ross Pearson really stepped out by running a train on Aaron Riley, and Siver, while he’s well-rounded and hits hard enough to cause problems if Pearson gets caught, will likely just be another stepping stone on the way to the the top for Pearson. Aside from Siver’s crushing spinning back-kick the other concern for Pearson fans should be that trick shoulder of his, with a powerful guy like Siver getting wild in the grappling and striking, it might come back out, which could cost Pearson the fight. Ross Pearson by decision.

PRELIMINARY CARD

Rafaello Oliveira (+135) vs. Andre Winner (-165)

Oliveira is hittable and Winner has shown improved boxing and good power, so Winner should definitely be favored to beat Oliveira up or just knock him spark out. If Oliveira can regularly get takedowns, he should be able to out grapple Winner, but he’s going to have to spend more time on the feet than he really wants. Andre Winner by decision.

Ronys Torres (-231) vs. Jacob Volkmann (+181)

Volkmann is wild and dangerous, but Torres has real submission skills. He should be able to put his weight on Volkman, who may be surprisingly weakened by the drop to 155. As long as Torres can avoid Volkman’s haymakers, it’s very unlikely that the Lloyd Christmas lookalike will be able to submit the Nova Uniao product. Torres by submission, round 1.

Rob Emerson (+112) vs. Nik Lentz (-142)

Lentz is not a particular strong wrestler, and his hands are very open and sloppy. He has hard leg kicks, which might cause Emerson to have flashbacks of his complete crippling from the kicks of Rafael dos Anjos. Emerson’s best skill is his takedown defense, but he’s also got much sharper hands than Lentz, so he can probably bust Lentz up on the feet in a slugfest. The kicks won’t be as much of a factor, even if Emerson adopts the same static boxing stance that leaves him so vulnerable to the leg kicks, because Lentz doesn’t have the movement to stay outside on Emerson, unless Emerson lets him.

Which is really the former “Lords of South County” standout’s biggest vulnerability: the mental weakness that has plagued him could cost him this fight, as well. Lentz isn’t outstanding, but he’s a gamer and if Emerson fails to pull the trigger, Lentz will be there to steal rounds from him. If Emerson loses focus, Lentz will come forward aggressively and score some points, and if Emerson spaces out and leaves his neck out, Lentz is willing to commit to guillotines, and Emerson may get finished.

All in all though, Emerson’s very solid takedown defense and sharp hands with some pop in them should give Lentz fits and let Rob Emerson continue his long, strange trip through life and the UFC. Emerson by KO, round 2.

Emerson is being undervalued as the underdog here, probably because he’s such a flake and generally unlikable character with his stupid tattoos and silly gang affiliations. He could lose this, but the style advantage is in his favor, with Lentz nearly having been KO’d by both Oliveira (who beat him up easily before gassing) and Thiago Tavares (who should have beaten Lentz if it were not for a bogus point deduction).

Gleison Tibau (-295) vs. Caol Uno (+240)

Tibau has yet to make the splash many expected of him when he first cut to lightweight, a 155lber that weighed 190. Caol Uno, on the other hand, has made his mark, but is very much a spent force at this point, with his most outstanding skills at this point being his submission defense and takedown defense, although the latter may be fading.

With Uno being so strong defensively and Tibau not having the power to take advantage of Uno’s fragile chin, this will probably be a close fight that goes to a decision that Tibau wins based on takedowns and position. All in all a yawnfest. Tibau by decision.

Lucio Linhares (+450) vs. Yushin Okami (-555)

Thought for the day: Yushin Okami should change his nickname to “Godzilla”. It much more closely reflects his fighting style and gifts, and “Thunder” is a crap nickname. Linhares is a good grappler, but that’s not worth much when your opponent can dominate you positionally and control the fight. Linhares didn’t seem to have much gas against Palhares, so Okami’s strength and smothering style will wear him out pretty quickly. The real question is whether Okami will demonstrate some kind of in-ring intelligence and gameplanning for this fight, or if he’s just going to go out there and wing it, as he’s done in the past. Okami by TKO round 3.

Gerald Harris (-159) vs. Mario Miranda (+129)

Gerald Harris hasn’t really stood out from the pack yet, in the UFC, and his second chance in the big show could be his last, as Miranda is a tough opponent, a well-rounded highly-skilled grappler that is a big threat to Harris. This is a fight that could easily go either way, and will simply come down to who shows up better prepared. Miranda is a better grappler than Harris, but he’s also not a lights-out finisher that can snatch up a finish with regularity. He’ll have to get position on Harris and beat him up, which could happen. This is a competitive fight, but the winner is going to have to struggle mightily to keep above water in this division. Miranda by decision.

Charlie Brenneman (+150) vs. Jason High (-190)

This is a favorable style matchup for High. Brenneman is a top-position wrestler that wants to ground and pound, and High is a much better wrestler than he is. Everyone that comes out of the Bodyshop Fitness team has serious wrestling chops and this is an opportunity for High to dominate an opponent that doesn’t have the power or striking chops to punish him if he drops that left hand. High maintains a good workrate, so expect him to just hustle Brenneman until he’s softened up enough for a finish. High by TKO round 2.

I think the -155 line earlier available on High was a good one, as I tweeted, but I’m less excited at -190. There’s probably still some marginal value, but things seem to change for fighters in their first UFC fight, so not much beyond that.

My plays:
1.55u on Jason High at (-155) to win 1u
1u on Rob Emerson at (+129) to win 1.29u
1u on Takanori Gomi at (+275) to win 2.75u
1u on Jorge Rivera at (+220) to win 2.2u