Fight Picks and Predictions for Strikeforce: Nashville

By Nicholas Bailey

For all their foibles with meaningless prelims, poor talent development, and inability to control their own fighters (Fedor, Overeem), Strikeforce can put together a fantastic product when they set their minds to it. With six of the greatest fighters in the world meeting each other under sensible rules (aside from the glaring lack of elbows on the ground) for five rounds, Strikeforce: Nashville has real import to alter the foundation of the worldwide rankings. Beyond even the divisional importance, two of the fights are as well-matched and interesting stylistically as you’ll be able to find this year.

Unfortunately for Strikeforce, unless they can complete another round of talent acquisition to snatch up another set of elite fighters, this is the best they can possibly do. Who will challenge the winner of Mousasi/Lawal? If Shields retains the title, does he rematch Robbie Lawler? Is Scott Smith the next challenger? Does anyone want to see Nick Diaz vs. Dan Henderson? Strikeforce’s talent pool is a mile wide and an inch deep. It’s going to be some risky diving after this event.


Champ Jake Shields (+325) vs. Dan Henderson (-413) (for middleweight title)

Jake Shields earned few fans by being unable to submit television “personality” Mayhem Miller, and Dan Henderson is entering in a perfect position to crush an unpopular heel and exude his blue-collar charms to agglomerate more fans. Just as Henderson found in his humiliating near-decapitation of Michael Bisping, fighting someone that can’t take him down and wants absolutely nothing to do with his power gives the seemingly ageless Hendo a chance to flex his standup and look like a monster.

Jake Shields is a pretty good wrestler with a nice array of chokes, but he has weak standup and is one of the few elite fighters that seems genuinely afraid to be hit by his opponent. Things were touch-and-go against Robbie Lawler, with Shields seemingly on the verge of crapping his pants every time Lawler took a shot at him, and Dan Henderson is a much stiffer test than Lawler.

Henderson, despite a great wrestling pedigree, falls over for no reason sometimes, which could be trouble against submission-savvy Shields, but if he can fight a disciplined fight like he did against Rousimar Palhares, he is going to absolutely destroy Jake Shields, bashing him up until Shields gets really desperate and gets knocked cold. Dan Henderson by KO round 2.

At -413 I feel Henderson still represents a value, since this style matchup is so abysmally poor for Shields, although I was happy to get Henderson at -350, as I tweeted.

Champ Gegard Mousasi (-220) vs. Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal (+197) (for light heavyweight title)

It’s too bad Lawal is being pushed into this fight at this early stage of his career, as it would be an even more competitive and intriguing fight if Lawal had more high-level experience (of course, he’s unlikely to get such experience in Strikeforce). Mousasi and Mo are perhaps the two most gifted fighters at 205 pounds this side of Jon Jones, and more so, are two of the greatest minds in the game.

Each man has a phenomenal degree of ring smarts and is a true student of the game. Both have the all-too-rare ability to adapt on the fly and exploit weaknesses they had not specifically prepared for, being creative and inventive in the ring.

Lawal is a world-class wrestler, with legitimate international competition credentials, not merely the NCAA championship (or worse yet, high school state champ) that passes for bona fides in this sport. He has unquestionable athleticism to back up a sharp mind, diligent tape study, and years upon years of exhaustive dedication to wrestling technique. His striking is coming along and should not be taken lightly, but still relies more on his sheer speed and explosion than pure kickboxing technique.

Mousasi is known as a good striker, but the fact is that he’s an A+ striker that has flown beneath the radar due to his predilection for ground and pound. He truly believes the ultimate display of dominance in a fight isn’t the standing KO that so many fighters pursue, but a good ground-and-pound thrashing, where he won’t have to risk any return fire. If he somehow manages to get a trip or sweep on Mo and lands on top, it won’t take him much time at all to do severe damage to his opponent or close out the fight entirely.

One of the most questionable aspects of Lawal’s game is his pace. He deliberately trains and fights in bursts, taking 20 seconds off then unleashing a furious combination before returning to a more inert phase. It’s very questionable how effective this kind of strategy will prove against a diligent worker like Mousasi, who will be in Lawal’s face every second that Lawal tries to take off.

The big questions for Lawal are not whether he can get takedowns (he can) but how he handles Mousasi’s striking before he gets the takedown, and how well he handles the submission threat after the takedown. Mike Whitehead scored several solid kicks on Lawal due to Mo’s low stance and relative inactivity during his “off” periods. Someone with the kicks and reach advantage of Mousasi will punish Lawal much more than Whitehead did. Similarly, while Mousasi certainly doesn’t have the kind of well-matured ground expertise that wins the Mundials, he has that MMA X-factor of always seeing opportunities to put himself in the right place at the right time. When Denis Kang threw himself into a triangle, Mousasi remained calm and finished flawlessly instead of freaking out and giving up the hold by trying to force it, the way many other fighters would.

It’s important not to forget that, for all Mo’s talent and study of the game, he’s only been in this sport for a very short term, and it’s likely that at least some of his skills are still reflective of his two years of training. That said, Lawal is no dummy, and he knows that this is far and away the most serious opponent he’s ever had and he cannot approach this fight the same way he did Whitehead.

In the end, Mousasi’s standup advantage and experience fighting high-level opponents should see him through to victory over a game, but inexperienced Lawal. Mousasi is a very good finisher when he has an opponent hurt, so don’t expect to see all five rounds. Gegard Mousasi by TKO round 3.

It’s important to remember that the three biggest names on Lawal’s resume are Mike Whitehead, Ryo Kawamura, and Fabio Silva. There’s very little evidence that the man is prepared to deal with the kind of offense Mousasi can dish out, and is likely being over-valued due to his winning personality and massive personal hype machine. I definitely recommend Mousasi at -220.

Champ Gilbert Melendez (-155) vs. Shinya Aoki (+140) (for Strikeforce lightweight title)

The biggest growth in Melendez’s game in the past two years has been the quantum leap in his boxing. This is a fighter that used to have to resort to slinging haymakers from the hip to try and out-brawl Nobuhiro Obiya but can now diligently work a jab or punish an opponent for improper footwork with a brutal one-punch KO.

Aoki, too, has improved his standup, but he still wants nothing to do with Melendez on the feet exchanging blows. Aoki is unpopular with MMA fans because of his petulant attitude and in-ring theatrics, but the man is a very serious grappler and intelligent fighter. He is not very durable and thus vulnerable to Melendez’s power, but he has dealt with powerful strikers in the past, namely JZ Calvancante and Joachim Hansen.

Melendez’s greatest weakness coming into this fight, given his iron chin and well-tested submission defense, is his tendency to give up position, especially letting fighters onto his back. Aoki will have a terrible time trying to submit Melendez, but he can stick to Gilbert’s back and win rounds by forcing Melendez to stay on the defensive in order to keep from giving up a submission, just as he did against those other dangerous strikers.

Aoki’s weakness is his staying power. He’s built like a schoolboy, and seems to be just about as tough. Melendez has 25 minutes to try to put power on him, with a quality connection resulting in Aoki being stacked next to Rodrigo Damm in Melendez’s pile of dead wood.

This is a very close fight that will come down to second-by-second decisions and intangibles, but with Melendez’s tendency to give up his back and Aoki’s ability to force that kind of scramble, the pick must be the world’s #2 lightweight. Shinya Aoki by decision.

This is a pick-em fight, but with Aoki as high as +140, I have to recommend a bet on the fragile and petulant grappling ace.

PRELIMINARY CARD

Jason “Mayhem” Miller (-1275) vs. Tim Stout (+775)

There’s no real point to breaking down this fight. It’s only included to avoid the risk of some 14 year old hopped up on speed scratching “Mayhem Rulez #1” into my car with a key. This is a gimme fight for Mayhem. If he loses he should quit fighting. A better question is where within what Strikeforce euphemistically refers to as its “management structure” this ridiculous bout was conceived of. Mayhem by sub round 1.

My Plays

3.5u on Dan Henderson at (-350) to win 1u.
1u on Shinya Aoki at (+130) to win 1.3u
2.2u on Gegard mousasi at (-220) to win 1u

More Strikeforce previews.