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Do fighters have some kind of mental defect? Are fight fans really supposed to believe that these men stay up nights completely enraged at someone they’ve barely ever met? Grudge matches in the UFC are always marketed in ways that emphasize how little each man cares for the other, but very little attention is called to why.
What is the cause of friction between Rampage and Rashad anyway? Why do they have this ridiculous and gaudy hatred for each other that requires smack talking and homoerotic threats at all times? They hate because they’re enemies, and they’re enemies because they hate. These men probably have far more in common than not, but that is somehow lost among all the ridiculous posturing. It may not really make any sense, but at least the main event of UFC 114 will have some heat.
Rashad Evans (-115) vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-105)
To cut to the chase, Jackson will show up in reasonable shape, if not the incredible, world-beater levels we saw when he faced off against Dan Henderson for five rounds and showed elite skill throughout. In fact, the tragedy of this fight is that, barring an early knockout, three rounds will probably be insufficient to bring the ridiculous and cartoonish grudge to a satisfactory conclusion.
When two elite fighters clash, it can sometimes result in fights that put five rounds to very poor use (Mousasi/Lawal and Henderson/Shields were forgone conclusions after the third round) but in other cases, such as the recent Mizugaki/Benavidez tilt, a fight has legs and is only just starting to get interesting by the third round, so fifteen minutes seems like woefully insufficient time to let two elite fighters do their business.
Rashad is a natural middleweight from the waist up, with a heavyweight’s lower body, which seems to be a natural fit for a fast-moving power-puncher, since so much power in a punch comes from the legs, but woefully ill-suited for his default gameplan of clinchwork against the fence, either in a double-leg takedown attempt or the traditional greco clinch, both of which require a lot of upper body power to contest and neither of which makes much use of the legs.
Rampage is phenomenally naturally gifted, with one of the best chins in the business, big natural punching power, and the kind of core strength and natural meanness that seems to be required for all elite fighters. Unfortunately, he’s a bit of a basket case, coming into fights woefully unprepared, fighting to his own detriment, and having serious mental breaks outside of fightsport as well. That said, his boxing is superior to Rashads and Rashad will have an extremely difficult time taking him down or doing significant damage on the ground. Rampage has become very one-dimensional in his recent fights, eschewing the brutal ground and pound he showed when he first rose to prominence, as well as some nice knees, in favor of little more than endless repetitions of the same shoulder-roll-1-2 combination he knocked out Wanderlei Silva with. Rashad knows this and even made fun of him for it on the reality show, but everyone knows Georges St, Pierre is going to shoot a power double or a knee-tap, but that doesn’t mean anyone can stop it. Even if Rampage is predictable, in a prolonged firefight, he has the chin to make more mistakes that lead to eating punches than Rashad does, and Rashad has never shown the kind of technical acumen and defensive mastery that would be required to capitalize on Rampage’s predictability.
Sad as it may be to say for a main event, this fight comes down to who screws up the least. If Rampage aimlessly flails in an over-anxious attempt to find a one-punch knockout, Rashad’s spastic movements will impress the judges more and he’ll be able to pick up a decision. If Rashad gets a taste of Rampage’s power and doesn’t like it, his attempts to grind out takedowns will only wear him out and lead to Rampage picking up rounds through more effective offense. While Rampage has the power to knock Rashad out, Rashad will have to land the most perfect punch of his career to finish Jackson, and unfortunately he already landed that against Chuck. The most likely outcome here is a closely fought three round decision without much sense of closure or a dominant, clear winner. These guys should be fighting for five rounds, where early tactical errors will manifest as large differences in gas in the “championship” rounds. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson by decision.
Michael Bisping (-170) vs. Dan Miller (+150)
Michael Bisping is a pretty good striker that’s vulnerable to guys with big power in their hands. Dan Miller got out-struck by Demian Maia. Miller has a pretty good top game, but his wrestling isn’t outstanding enough to just put Bisping on the floor at will, and Bisping is pretty good off his back. Miller is just in over his head stylistically here, but don’t expect too much in the way of fireworks here. Miller is tough enough not to get overwhelmed and finished by Bisping. Michael Bisping by decision.
Todd Duffee (-325) vs. Mike Russow (+275)
Todd Duffee describes himself as the most over-hyped fighter around. For what that’s worth he may be right. The guy has all the hallmarks of a massively over-rated fighter. He’s big and impressive-looking, he has very little experience, he’s undefeated, and in the fight with the most exposure, he scored a very quick stoppage. Duffee is definitely a better athlete than most heavyweights, but he’s not unique in having big punching power and some strength. It remains to be seen how he’ll do when really tested, but completely crushing a fighter like Assuerio Silva does mean something. Russow is a huge ogre of a man, although he certainly won’t have the explosion of Duffee, even if he has a similar amount of raw power. What he does have is a ground game most heavyweights are not used to. If Duffee is too accustomed to using his huge power to escape submissions, Russow’s weight and size could be an unpleasant suprise to him. It’s worth mentioning that Russow is also now the unofficial torchbearer for the Monson choke, with the demise of Jeff Monson as a relevant fighter. It could be very instructive to see Duffee on the ground having to defend some submissions, but this fight will probably go the way Dana White wants it to. When you have a big, athletic guy like Duffee in such a thin division, he’s just going to play Hulk Smash on most of his opponents. Thus while Russow has a very real chance of submitting Duffee, he’s probably just going to get punched in the face really hard in the first two minutes and fall apart. Todd Duffee by KO round 1.
If you are going to bet, smart money has to be on the big heavyweight with a proven record of landing submissions on other heavies, rather than the untried powerhouse with very little seasoning.
Jason Brilz (+475) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (-550)
Jason Brilz is a good wrestler. Nogueira is better off his back than Brilz is on top. Brilz is not good on his feet, Nogueira is a pretty dangerous boxer with the KO power his larger brother seems to lack. Things don’t look like they’re going to go in the favor of Mr. Brilz. Brilz had better hope that the Nogueira that spent three rounds playing tag with Moise Rimbon in a pathetic performance is the one that shows up, and not the terminator that absolutely mauled Luis Cane. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira by submission round 1.
This is a fight with real upset potential, despite the fact that Brilz is completely overmatched on paper. Modern MMA judging, woeful as it is, favors nothing so much as top position. If Nogueira doesn’t get a finish and turns in the kind of going-through-the motions performance that he put out just prior to joining the UFC, then Brilz could definitely out-wrestle him and pick up two rounds. At these long odds, a flier on Brilz is worthwhile.
John Hathaway (+175) vs. Diego Sanchez (-210)
Hathaway is a highly-regarded prospect with very little widespread recognition. Diego Sanchez is a very gifted and frighteningly determined fighter that has repeatedly bumped his head against the glass ceiling of truly elite status, most recently against BJ Penn in a one-sided squash. Either way, one of these men will be losing a lot in this fight. Either Hathaway will have to pay his dues as a borderline fighter before he can mix with the big boys, or Diego will be forever consigned to the role of also-ran for the true contenders.
Hathaway has looked impressive, mostly by out-wrestling opponents that are not good wrestlers. Against a serious wrestler like Rick Story, Hathaway had to survive in the scramble. With Diego Sanchez being an okay wrestler himself and a master of the scramble, this fight could turn into a real dustball of scrambling and position-switching. Diego is incredibly hard to hold down, with a very active guard and a sweep/escape game that is second to none. He spends very little time flat on his back, either reversing or escaping back to his feet very rapidly. Hathaway cannot threaten Diego with submissions, and he will be at a disadvantage on the feet. This fight won’t be a blowout, but Hathaway just doesn’t have the tools right now to threaten Diego and score points to win rounds. Diego Sanchez by decision.
PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)
Dong Hyun Kim (+115) vs. Amir Sadollah (-130)
Someone has made an error here. Either the UFC has erred in picking an opponent for their new Forrest Griffin to combat, or everyone else has underestimated the UFC’s desire to market and push their Korean fighters. Amir’s striking has come along, but Kim can match him there and, more dangerously, throw him to the ground and pound on him handily. If Kim isn’t physically handicapped from his long layoff (he’s been inactive since UFC 100) then he should pick this fight up handily by tripping and throwing Amir and staying on top and throwing damage down.
The one thing working in Amir’s favor is that Kim always tends to slow down late in his fights and Amir seems to be a master of the comeback, at least during his stint on TUF. If Kim just falls asleep in the third round, and can’t get desperation takedowns to keep Amir off him, a striking flurry could turn the tables late for some big drama, which would probably get both men the “fight of the night” bonus. Kim’s skills should be enough to get him through trouble though, as Amir isn’t the most cutthroat finisher. Dong Hyun Kim by decision.
Kim isn’t flashy or particularly charismatic, despite a rad nickname, so he seems to be overlooked here. He has a very clear route to victory, and represents a good bet.
Efrain Escudero (-450) vs. Dan Lauzon (+350)
In case you missed it, the story of this fight is that Dan Lauzon’s trainers and brother have abandoned him for this fight because he failed to live up to an ultimatum about properly training. Joe Lauzon wrote about it in his blog.
Escudero would have to be a massive favorite even if Lauzon didn’t have all this surrounding him, as he’s too strong to be physically overwhelmed by Lauzon’s reckless and aggressive style, and he’s far better technically in every regard. This will be a fight where Escudero recaptures some of the hype and momentum he lost when Evan Dunham upset him. Escudero will have much more effective offense, wherever the fight goes, and Lauzon will wear down until he is finished. Efrain Escudero by TKO round 2.
PRELIMINARY CARD (Not televised)
Melvin Guillard (-295) vs. Waylon Lowe (+250)
It’s unclear why this fight exists at this point, unless you remember Lowe is a replacement for the often-injured Thiago Tavares. Guillard is a bit of a flake, although he’s been far more disciplined at times, he still has moments like his complete brain fart against Nate Diaz. Waylon Lowe had better hope Guillard spaces out again, as he’s outmatched here. Melvin Guillard by KO round 1.
Luiz Cane (-355) vs. Cyrille Diabate (+325)
Luiz Cane built up a nice head of steam for himself, going undefeated (aside from a DQ) until he ran smack into a metaphorical brick wall and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira’s literal fist. Cane, who had based his career on being tougher, meaner, and more dangerous than his opponents suddenly found himself being hit harder than he was hitting back and looked like he’d never met a left handed person in his life.
In Cyrille Diabate, Cane is matched up against an even more dangerous left-handed striker, with an even greater reach advantage. In fact, in terms of pure striking Diabate might be the most accomplished fighter in the light heavyweight division. He’s certainly got the best pure Muay Thai, so if Cane tries to mix it up on the feet, it could be a real pleasure to watch. Diabate has the power and technique to really tear up someone like Cane, but Cane does have the grappling background (on paper) to easily handle the one-dimensional Diabate. It all depends on how Cane approaches the fight. If he has even a modicum of in-ring smarts and gameplanning, he’ll have been sparring constantly with lefties to shore up that weakness, and he’ll just immediately take the fight to the ground and run game on Diabate. Luiz Cane by submission, round 1.
Diabate is rightfully the underdog, but if Cane is overconfident and tries to bang with him, this fight could swing in his favor instantaneously, so he represents a really good flier.
Joe Brammer (+165) vs. Aaron Riley (-175)
Brammer sucks and has nothing for Riley. Riley is a worn down old veteran at this point, but that means he’s hard to surprise and a solid, if stolid, performer. Brammer doesn’t have the kind of upper-level offense that’s needed to get Riley out of the cage, so Riley will just out-work him and pick up rounds. Aaron Riley by decision.
Jesse Forbes (-125) vs. Ryan Jensen (+110)
Forbes has a terrible gas tank and doesn’t belong in the UFC, and Ryan Jensen isn’t much better. If Forbes can really connect in his initial surge in the first three or four minutes of the fight, Jensen isn’t durable enough to stick around to take advantage of the fact that Forbes’ wheels completely fall off by the second round. If it doesn’t end in the first, Jensen wins. Forbes is a fairly powerful and aggressive guy for a few minutes though, which will probably be enough to do in Jensen. Jesse Forbes by TKO round 1.
My plays:
.25u on Mike Russow at (+275) to win .69u
.25u on Jason Brilz at (+450) to win 1.19u
.5u on Cyrille Diabate at (+325) to win 1.63u
1u on Dong Hyun Kim at (+115) to win 1.15u
2.1u on Diego Sanchez at (-210) to win 1u
