By 
UFC 115 has “close decisions” written all over it. With the state of judging in MMA being what it is, that means that three relatively unaccountable judges hold the fate of this card in their hands. The matches are well-made, and the fighters will compete hard and skillfully, but if the decisions are contested, all that fans will remember is the poor judging, not the heights of drama or creativity achieved in the cage.
The actual fights are strange in that most of the fighters have more in common with their opponent than not, with a lot of mirror matchups between fighters with extremely similar styles. This card also has an unusually large number of worn-down warhorses being run out for one more go at it, which can be bittersweet when the doors to the glue factory open up after a fight.
Chuck Liddell (+120) vs. Rich Franklin (-140)
Most of the pre-fight chatter surrounding this fight seems to have centered around Chuck Liddell’s reduced belly and prominent abdominals. The Iceman’s six-pack is worth noting, because of what it probably says about him. Chuck is no fool. He knows that he’s slipping, that he can’t take the kind of punch he used to, and that his reflexes and reaction times are slowing down. These abs are probably a sign of him putting more effort than ever before into his conditioning and physical preparation, but the fact is that all those years and all those brutal beatings taken in victory as well as defeat cannot be taken off your body. Chuck’s entire style depended on the confluence of his ability to be defensively porous to invite his opponents to over-commit, with his reactions and power being enough to find the perfect opportunity to make them pay, and his chin enough to let him take what they threw while he countered. There is no more perfect example of this than his second fight with Babalu, and no more perfect example of how it fails Chuck now than his fight with Rashad, where he was beaten to the punch and knocked spark out.
Chuck can’t react in time to capitalize on those split-second opportunities anymore, and he can’t just sponge up enough punishment to wait for them to come around again either. There’s a reason the man that was once king of the hill has only notched one victory since UFC 66. It’s no coincidence that the formerly bulletproof Liddell has had to withdraw from fights due to injury for the first time in his career during this same timespan. His body is giving out after years of mistreatment. He still has the power, but he’s not what he used to be.
Rich Franklin is a different story with the same ending. He is no longer the kingpin of his best division, and he is bordering on irrelevance, but he is in a completely different position from Chuck. Rich is nearly irrelevant not because he’s not any good anymore, but because he’s too good to stay in his best division and he’s too good an employee. Rich will never beat Anderson Silva, but if he continued to fight at 185 he would be good enough to knock off many contenders, which has forced him into weird catch-weight fights with peripheral fighters. Furthermore, Rich’s status as a dutiful employee of the UFC has led to him being thrown in as a replacement or summarily placed atop cards that needed a replacement main event, mostly in fights that don’t have the direct divisional relevance that permeates so much of the UFC product. Rich is irrelevant because his fights exist in a separate universe, not because he isn’t a good fighter. Rich has been left behind by his division because the best fighters have gotten even better, not because he has gotten worse.
Rich is the kind of striker that Chuck would eat up in his prime. Rich has a smooth, but wide-open stance that relies on lots of movement but results in looping shots, he doesn’t have big power, he has an average chin, and he falls apart under sustained fire. However a slower Chuck is more likely to be flummoxed by even some basic movement, as Keith Jardine showed with his horrible but unpredictable footwork. Rich is not a huge one-punch knockout striker, but he throws with enough power to hurt opponents, and with Chuck being unable to weather any kind of fire at this point, that’s enough. Look for a more youthful Rich Franklin to make Chuck look old here. If he doesn’t put Chuck down early, he’s just going to frustrate and wear him down for a decision, although a long fight gives Chuck more opportunities to have moments of strong offense. Rich Franklin by KO round 1.
Patrick Barry (-170) vs. Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (+150)
Yet another old warhorse trots out to the battlefield for one more go-round as Mirko Crocop continues the struggle he’s been engaged in since UFC 67. To save die-hard Crocop fans the time: he’s never going to recapture his former glory. The man has been put through the ringer in every manner of full-contact combat you can think of, from boxing to kickboxing to MMA, and he has the lingering injuries and worn-down body parts to show it. He might still be dangerous but the raw physicality that he needed to complete his MMA game is long gone and won’t return. Across the cage from the aging but somewhat bulked-up Croatian is the midget of the heavyweight division (since the demise of Jeff Monson’s career). He might be short, but Pat Barry came in at his heaviest yet for this fight, at 248. With his natural gifts, it’s unlikely that the extra weight slows him down or noticeably affects his agility.
Both of these men prefer a similar style in MMA, sharpshooting with heavy single shots from a good distance, relying on the danger of their strikes to keep opponents away while remaining confident in their ability to change the course of fights with single blows. Both men are very tough (Crocop’s reputation for a poor chin or fragility is completely undeserved as he took some serious whippings from Gonzaga, Fedor, and Dos Santos without blinking) but Barry uses that toughness to throw strikes back when opponents close in on him, and Crocop just uses it to survive while he clears out more distance. As was clear yet again in his fight with dos Santos, Crocop does not fare well when his opponent can crowd him and is tough enough not to be backed off by his dangerous counter left straight. Barry fits that mold. He can beat Mirko to the punch, he can take Mirko’s punches, and he can keep Mirko moving backward and incapable of setting up that left leg killshot.
Barry should be able to stay on Mirko and keep him off-balance and slowly beat him up until he quits again. This will be a brutal fight for both men, as Barry will have to take some of Crocop’s piston-like punches in the exchanges, but Crocop will come out on the losing side of it. Barry is also utterly horrible on the ground, so Mirko could easily lateral drop him (he does have the wrestling for this) and work some heavy ground and pound, but that simply isn’t the way Mirko’s brain works at this point. You’re going to get a stand up fight and Barry is going to take it. Crocop won’t evacuate the premises quickly, but Barry will eventually wear him down and put him away. Pat Barry by TKO round 3.
If you’re a hardcore devotee of my twitter feed and the kind of person that is willing to plop money down months away from a fight, you were able to get Barry at +160. There’s not much value in him past -150, but if the line moves the other way before the fight, take it.
Martin Kampmann (+205) vs. Paulo Thiago (-215)
This fight has the potential to be very exciting, although full of poor technique. Kampmann is one of the most hittable fighters around, despite being a legitimately good kickboxer. Thiago is one of the most untechnical strikers out there, but finds a way to land goofy slapping haymakers that drop dudes. Since anyone in the same room as Kampmann lands power shots on him, you can expect him to get tuned up with a few of Thiago’s slaps. That said, Kampmann has a ridiculous beard and can recover from getting pasted quickly, so it’s going to be hard to score on the feet, with Kampmann moving well and landing point-scoring punches and kicks, but Thiago landing occasional hard shots that will have a more visible effect on Kampmann.
The limits of Thiago’s ground game have yet to be tested. He doesn’t have a monster jiu-jitsu pedigree, but he seems to be very lethal with his submissions when he finds an opportunity. Kampmann is better on the ground than standing, simply because he doesn’t have the glaring defensive weaknesses on the mat, although he will be very hard-pressed to find an arm-triangle on someone as solid as Thiago. A workable strategy for Kampmann would be to find trip takedowns from the clinch and then just ride out in top position, where he could pick up rounds without risking Thiago’s punches. Kampmann isn’t that kind of guy, though, and will probably strike until he’s forced to go for takedowns after getting clipped. It remains to be seen if that will be enough. Thiago has more offensive firepower, but you should expect a really close, competitive fight here that should be very informative. Paulo Thiago by decision.
Ben Rothwell (-150) vs. Gilbert Yvel (+135)
Yvel is an old beat up heap of a fighter. He still has the striking power and is wild and dangerous in the ring, but he is not the prime physical specimen he once was, and he can’t take the kind of shots he used to. Yvel has never had good cardio in MMA, and Rothwell is enormously bigger and very tough. Unless Yvel can land a truly phenomenal strike and put Rothwell out early in the fight, Rothwell’s size is just going to weigh on him and break him down. If Rothwell mashes Yvel against the cage and just beats him down, don’t be shocked, but he has the biggest advantage on the ground, where Yvel has always struggled. Rothwell isn’t typically a fighter that looks for submissions, but against Yvel they may be too available for him not to try, but he can definitely just lay a beating on the man from top position. Ben Rothwell by TKO round 2.
The odds on this fight are too even. Rothwell is a high-level fighter, despite what Cain Velasquez did to him. Yvel is not. Take Rothwell as a slight dog. I was able to get him at -110 and tweeted about it, but I’d still take him at -150.
Carlos Condit (+115) vs. Rory MacDonald (-135)
This is another matchup between two very similar fighters on a card full of mirror matchups. Both fighters are very good offensively on the feet and on the mat, and while neither is an ace wrestler, neither is Miguel Torres either. Both are somewhat hittable, although Condit has a thoroughly tested chin. Rory has crisper hands, which could spell trouble for Condit’s wide-open style, but Condit has very nasty kicks and knees to make up for it. MacDonald has been able to run game on opponents from on top, moving with little or no resistance to nasty armbars, but Condit’s guard work is very good, so it’s hard to see Rory just moving to side, spiderweb, and then an armbar as he’s done against lesser opposition.
Condit is working with Greg Jackson, who should theoretically be able to give him a good gameplan and have him fight more strategically than his traditional brawl-it-out, come-what-may style, but the question is whether Condit will be a Rashad/GSP type Jackson product or another Leonard Garcia type unwanted child. Jackson has shown that, while he has a brilliant tactical mind, he is not the kind of taskmaster that can force wayward fighters to actually carry out his strategies in the ring.
This fight should be up-and-down, with most of the work happening on the feet. Condit’s beard is well-tested, and Rory was rocked by a below-average striker in Michael Guymon, so he may be more vulnerable to Condit’s knees than Condit is to his punches. This should be a very close fight and could really test the abilities of the judges, which is not really what one wants to hear at this point in MMA. Condit is more battle-tested and experienced, whereas Rory is making a big step up and fighting the first opponent he isn’t a lot more talented than. In that kind of scenario, Condit has a razor-thin advantage. Carlos Condit by decision.
PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)
Mac Danzig (-120) vs. Matt Wiman (EVEN)
This bout matches up two well-rounded, talented fighters who nevertheless struggle to keep their heads above water in the world’s best division. Both men are very versatile, but have lots of difficulty putting away high-quality opposition and can be physically dominated by the largest and strongest men in the division. Both men wear down under pressure, but Wiman has seemed to have serious cardio problems, whereas Danzig just gets crushed and exhausted by dominant wrestlers.
In this fight, Danzig should have a slight advantage on the feet and in the grappling, while Wiman may be able to score takedowns early on. Danzig should be able to keep things competitive enough that Wiman has to exert a lot of energy and wears down, letting Danzig pick up the later rounds. Mac Danzig by decision.
Evan Dunham (+190) vs. Tyson Griffin (-220)
This is a fight that has been getting a lot of attention from bettors, as Dunham has been an underdog in every one of his UFC fights, but has won every one of them, and Griffin’s usually lukewarm offense has robbed him of a lot of the fan support and luster he had in his early UFC career. Griffin is coming off a one-sided win over Hermes Franca, and Griffin’s first stoppage win since his Octagon Debut at UFC 63 in 2006. Hermes Franca was known as a very tough fighter, so this stoppage signaled a sea change for Griffin to many observers, although this enthusiasm must be tempered by the fact that Hermes followed up the fight by losing via an even quicker knockout to unheralded Eric Wisely in a very small show. The fact remains that Griffin was finally sitting down behind his punches and putting his weight behind them, with proper form resulting in real power.
Dunham’s last fight was his breakout, where he came from behind to upset Efrain Escudero with a submission. While it’s easy to just glance at his record and see a win there, its important to see how the fight actually went down. Escudero was slipping Dunham’s punches throughout the first round, while landing strong counter rights straight down the pipe that Dunham seemed unable to avoid. Efrain won the first round so handily that he seemed to get lazy and loose, treating the fight as more of a sparring session than a serious bout. In short, Escudero wasn’t forced to give up the fight, he let it happen to himself. Dunham is still an impressive fighter, but Griffin is too disciplined and experienced, and Dunham cannot expect to have the fight handed to him like that this time.
Unless Dunham has radically improved his defense or accuracy, this fight should look like a replay of the first round of the Escudero fight, with Dunham struggling with Griffin’s defense, while Griffin can land good straight rights without too much difficulty. Tyson Griffin by decision.
PRELIMINARY CARD (Not televised)
David Loiseau (+170) vs. Mario Miranda (-185)
Loiseau shouldn’t be here. He’s a relic of a past time when this division was much weaker. At this point, while he’s a useful Canadian name for the UFC to toss onto cards, he looked abysmal against Ed Herman, and Mario Miranda will be able to similarly shut him down with takedowns. Absent Loiseau landing some miraculous big shot, this is going to be a prolonged beating with Miranda visibly eroding Loiseau’s soul in the ring. Miranda by decision.
Peter Sobotta (+280) vs. James Wilks (-345)
James Wilks surprised a lot of people when he upset a massively overrated DaMarques Johnson, but fell more or less flat against unimpressive opposition in Matt Brown. Sobotta has been even less impressive, losing to one-dimensional octagon mediocrity Paul Taylor. Wilks belongs here, even if he might never get off the undercard. Sobotta probably doesn’t. James Wilks by decision.
Ricardo Funch (+220) vs. Claude Patrick (-280)
Funch is a big, physically gifted wrestler, but he’s very one-dimensional. Also, he has utterly horrible hair. Claude Patrick can do it all, although he’ll probably be at a wrestling disadvantage to Funch. This is more than made up for by the fact that Patrick has a very nasty Guillotine. Just as Funch shot into the guillotine against Hendricks, he’s very likely to not like what Patrick brings on the feet with his traditional Muay Thai game, and unfortunately shoot directly into being finished by a guillotine. Patrick by submission, round 1.
Jesse Lennox (-125) vs. Mike Pyle (EVEN)
This fight is do or die for both men. Both men are slick grapplers that want to be on top and in control to set up their submissions, although Lennox may have a wrestling advantage. While many grappler vs. grappler fights end up in stalemates, a submission finish is pretty likely in this fight. Pyle is a very slick, cut-throat grappler, the kind of guy that can finish opponents with better jiu-jitsu credentials than he has through aggressiveness and proper timing, but when an opponent is on top of him and dominant, he tends to make mistakes and give up submissions, so if Lennox is really crushing him, he’s likely to get tapped. This should make for an exciting, if irrelevant fight. Pyle’s super-slickness should be enough to catch Lennox out and finish him off, but this fight could easily go either way. Mike Pyle by submission, round 1.
My plays:
2.2u on Ben Rothwell at (-110) to win 2u
2u on Pat Barry at (+160) to win 3.2u
