Fight Picks and Predictions for Strikeforce: Los Angeles

By Nicholas Bailey

Strikeforce needed a token card to represent their brand at E3 to help promote the EA MMA game, and that’s exactly how Strikeforce: Los Angeles fits in. It’s just a quick morsel for MMA fans to enjoy and then forget, since the only real story possible from the fights is whether or not Robbie Lawler will ever find a way to return to the UFC, and if he cares.

Robbie Lawler (-140) vs. Renato “Babalu” Sobral (+115) (195-pound catchweight fight)

These two fighters are an interesting yin and yang fit. Each man’s strength fits perfectly with his opponent’s weakness, to the point where they could fight a hundred times and it would never be clear who is really superior, with each continually falling victim to the other’s best weapons.

Sobral is a skilled grappler that has always struggled to avoid and survive heavy strikes, with a particular weakness to big punchers. Lawler is a big puncher that has traditionally fallen flat on his face when he lets a slick grappler get a hold of him.

Lawler has never been a fan of training beyond lifting weights and obliterating heavy bags, and Babalu has just never been able to clean up his technique on the feet and keep his hands up. The one thing working in Lawler’s favor is that he is very patient for a big slugger, and can take his time to search for the shot that eventually puts Babalu away, while Babalu does not have anything for Lawler on the feet and will constantly be in a state of desperation when he doesn’t have a good grip on Lawler. Fortunately for Babalu, if he does manage to take down Lawler, Robbie tends to drive head first when he’s wrestling and trying to get back to his feet. Just like Jake Shields, Babalu has a number of excellent submissions in his repertoire from the front headlock position. Expect a knockout or a choke finishing this fight, to be sure. Lawler is a bit more athletic and has enough wrestling to keep Babalu off him more often than not. Robbie Lawler by KO round 2.

Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos (+220) vs. Marius Zaromskis (-250)

This is a huge cut for Santos down to 170, which is certainly a risky move on his part, given that he’s had a lot of physical deficiencies in the ring, most notably his cardio. Zaromskis is no marathon fighter himself, wearing out quickly due to his wild and aggressive fighting style. This fight is going to come down to Santos’ ability to take punishment. Zaromskis is going to paste him early, but if Santos can out-last his cardio, he can win. It’s not very likely that Cyborg can conserve his energy while taking a beating, especially with how much he is cutting, so this fight might devolve into a real gong show if Zaromskis beats Santos down but not out and punches himself out. Zaromskis is also not the strongest defensively, but his aggression should be putting Cyborg on his back foot to the point that he can’t successfully brawl back. This should be a fun, action fight, although Cyborg won’t like the amount of punishment he has to take. Zaromskis by TKO round 2.

Tim Kennedy (-125) vs. Trevor Prangley (+120)

This fight is going to be abysmal. Both men are stronger defensively than offensively, which is a recipe for a slow-paced and generally boring fight. Prangley’s hope is always to just get a hold of his opponents and grind them down, and Kennedy isn’t a good enough wrestler to keep that from slowing the bout to a crawl, but he is also defensively sound enough to stick around without being overwhelmed and finished by Prangley.

One important meta-narrative to this fight is that Prangley is taking this fight on fairly short notice and will have a difficult cut because of that, which will hurt his already shaky cardio. Kennedy will probably lose the first round, but Prangley will start to slow drastically after that point. In a fight that has some legs and goes past the first round, the more offensively dynamic fighter has a big advantage, and Kennedy’s striking power and grappling should come to the forefront after Prangley starts slowing down. Prangley is difficult to finish, but without the cardio to put out offense in the second and third rounds, Kennedy will be in the driver’s seat and could very well put him away, although the most likely outcome will place his win in the untrustworthy hands of the judges. Tim Kennedy by decision.

Conor Heun (+400) vs. K.J. Noons (-450)

Does anyone care? K.J. Noons has come back to MMA after realizing he can’t even begin to cut the mustard as a pro boxer, and he’s never shown anything that would indicate a bright future as a top-flight fighter, but he’s a solid and capable fighter that has some legitimate standup skills. Conor Heun is just a below-mediocre all-rounder that will represent little more than a tough punching bag in this one-sided fight. K.J. Noons by KO round 1.