UFC Live on Versus 2: Jones vs. Matyushenko is another unusual Versus product from Zuffa with Jon Jones as the headliner. Last time out he delivered a complete crushing of the always-durable-if-flaky Brandon Vera, and really had a coming-out-party as a super-elite top-ten-ready fighter right out of the box.
This card has an interesting mix of relevant fights from established fighters, chances for up-and-comers to really move into the divisional elite, and fights between scrubs designed simply to get someone a loss and clear up some roster space. All in all it should produce a lot of highly compelling sportive violence as well as some good looks at some elite fighters.
Jon Jones (-600) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (+500) 
This is a great fight for Jones to look good in. Matyushenko is a solid veteran, but he matches up horribly with Jones. Matyushenko has never had much going on offensively, never been able to really threaten a solid fighter with much in the way of insult or injury. In his prime he was durable and had enough striking to hang with most fighters, but he’s become more brittle as his career winds down. He’s a savvy enough grappler to not end up being totally dominated by most opponents, and his wrestling is more than strong enough to shut down most fighters.
Unfortunately for Vladimir, Jones is a new kind of fighter, and several quantum leaps beyond him. Jones still needs to improve his striking, but it’s moving ahead in leaps and bounds technically, and should have enough surprises to tag Matyushenko and get the ball rolling for a finish. Many experts believe that this fight is much closer than the current odds reflect, thinking that Matyushenko will be able to slow down Jones’ wrestling. This is not the case. Jones’ athleticism and ability to make huge things happen in the blink of an eye was enough to slam-dunk Matt Hamill, who is much younger and stronger than Matyushenko, and the Janitor’s slowed reflexes will fail him if Jones finds a spot to get a trip or lateral drop.
If Matyushenko gets hit with something big, he’s going down. If he ends up underneath Jones, this fight could get gory and unpleasant. Jones has incredibly brutal ground and pound, and Matyushenko has an iron will, but not enough defense off his back to stop Jones. Matyushenko will not quit, and Jones will not stop hurting him, so really if he gets taken down, the best outcome for Matyushenko is a quick knockout, preventing him from taking an epic beating. Jon Jones by TKO round 1.
Mark Munoz (+175) vs. Yushin Okami (-200)
This fight should be a splatterfest. Okami showed off his striking in a one-sided mauling of manly beard-grower Lucio Linhares, but the fact is that he’s always had some very solid striking in his back pocket. He’s just traditionally been so insanely passive that it’s been easy to overlook. Fortunately for Okami, Munoz seems to have a magnet in his head that attracts an opponent’s strikes. This man catches a beating like no other. If Okami doesn’t completely shut down and simply stand around doing nothing, he should repeatedly bash Munoz, knock him over repeatedly, and finish him off in the first round. Munoz has the same kind of toughness Wanderlei Silva did in his prime, where he gets dropped when he’s tagged solidly but survives on willpower alone and recovers. Wanderlei had enough offense to cover for this and keep opponents from just mauling him, but Munoz does not. Kendall Grove was well on his way to mangling this man, before Grove’s glass jaw took over.
Okami should have enough reach and wrestling acumen to keep Munoz from putting him down, and he’s a good enough grappler to stay in control of the fight on the ground, even though Munoz does have huge natural punching power. Munoz will probably walk into repeated punches and just get nuked, which will more or less clear Okami’s name with casual fans as a boring fighter, perfectly positioning him to move up in status in the division. Yushin Okami by TKO round 1.
Jake Ellenberger (-170) vs. John Howard (+168)
John Howard is going to get mashed up. Ellenberger has some of the biggest natural punching power the UFC has ever seen, and he’s a very talented wrestler. Howard is surprisingly well-rounded, but his wrestling game relies exclusively on his ability to explode with big power very quickly in the right spot. He doesn’t really have much in the way of technical wrestling skill, just the ability to take an opening and lift a guy up for a slam. This means that when Ellenberger puts hands on the man, Howard is going to get flattened out on his back. From there, Howard will have to deal with 3 rounds of very big punches coming his way. Howard is a skilled grappler, but Ellenberger’s top control and power should be enough to neutralized that game and finish him off. Jake Ellenberger by TKO round 1.
I think Ellenberger’s advantages in this fight are being overlooked at the current odds.
Takanori Gomi (+265) vs. Tyson Griffin (-300)
The “Fireball Kid” is gone. Well actually, he’s still right here, same as always, and that’s the problem. Gomi isn’t nearly as much a student of the game as someone like a Mo Lawal or Kenny Florian. He doesn’t understand his own failings, and he doesn’t have anyone that can tell him what is going wrong for him and make him change his training. In his heyday, Gomi’s wrestling background allowed him to stay on his feet or in top position to control fights, and his ridiculous chin and natural punching power let him slug it out with lesser strikers and score big knockouts.
Every once in a while Gomi would get taken down and hustled on the ground (Hansen, Penn, Aurelio) but those were top-level fighters, and these things happen. He didn’t really change much in his game, and continued to win fights. However, the level of fighters around him kept improving, to the point where his striking advantage was diminished and more and more fighters had the level of wrestling needed to score takedowns. Gomi kept plugging away, spending a lot of time training with his own students at the Rascal gym, but he still just came out looking to win fights with big haymakers and no gameplan. This culminated in the complete technical whipping Kenny Florian handed this man, which should have made it clear to all that Gomi is what he is, flaws and all, and we cannot expect anything else from him.
Griffin is a better boxer at this point, even if he doesn’t have Gomi’s natural gifts of power and durability, and he’s a better wrestler. Gomi is going to get out-struck on the feet, and when he gets tired and starts winging haymakers, Griffin will shoot right under them and put the Japanese import on his back. This is a perfect fight for Griffin to get back on the winning track, and he should end up looking very good when the night is over, provided he doesn’t get sloppy and run into a huge punch. Tyson Griffin by decision.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Paul Kelly (+110) vs. Jacob Volkmann (-125)
This is an interesting style mismatch. Volkmann has some legitimate high-octane offense, but he’s incredibly porous and sloppy all over the place. Kelly is a much more solidly technical fighter, offensively and defensively, but he doesn’t really have any sort of big-boy offensive tools to actually threaten high-level opponents. Kelly thrived early in his career on the fact that most UK fighters have absolutely no wrestling, so he was able to use his own mediocre wrestling to get top position and control fights. Volkman is a better wrestler and won’t let Kelly slow the fight down and turn it into a control/point-fighting scenario. While Volkman tends to leave huge gaps in his defense while executing his sloppy but dangerous offense, Kelly doesn’t have the kind of game to weasel into those gaps and exploit them. Look for Volkmann to out-wrestle Kelly and pick up a clear-cut decision. Jacob Volkmann by decision.
DaMarques Johnson (+180) vs. Matthew Riddle (-210)
This is going to be an ugly fight. DaMarques is clearly not the all-star that many believed him to be coming off of TUF, but he does have some offensive firepower, since his deficiencies are primarily defensive. Riddle was perhaps the most inexperienced and raw fighter in the UFC when he made his big-show debut following his own stint on TUF, and his game is still in the embryonic stages.
Riddle is a physical hulk and will certainly be the larger, stronger man, and the better wrestler to boot. He will get takedowns against Johnson, but the question is where the fight develops from there. Riddle is still working on developing real offensive tools, and Johnson’s guard work is the best thing he has going for him at this point. Riddle can be swept by a slick grappler, and he usually has to rely on grit and physical power to escape from bad positions. Working in his favor is the fact that Johnson still leaves big gaps defensively at times and is pretty fragile. If Riddle can bring some of that physical power to bear early in the fight, Johnson will fold and the fight will become much easier for Riddle. Matt Riddle by Decision.
James Irvin (-160) vs. Igor Pokrajac (+150)
This is going to be an ugly fight. Irvin is hanging on to his UFC contract by his fingernails, because he simply isn’t that good, and Pokrajac has shown that he’s not ready for this level of competition and is too sloppy for fighters with serious games. Fortunately for both, this is an appropriately-matched fight, winnable for both men. If James Irvin gets knocked over, Pokrajac has enough of a game to polish him off. If Pokrajac can’t get the fight down, Irvin will probably be able to rely on his big power to crush him. Irvin isn’t great defensively on the feet, and doesn’t seem as rugged and durable as someone with a brawling style should be, so Pokrajac could conceivably knock him out too. Pokrajac’s big weakness in this fight is that he doesn’t have much in the way of wrestling, which gives Irvin a not inconsiderable edge. James Irvin by KO round 1.
Mike Massenzio (-165) vs. Brian Stann (+150)
Massenzio has been on the shelf for far too long. Stann was pushed farther than his talent merited due to his ultra-marketable peripherals, but he has done what so many fighters fail to do, and actually begun to catch up to his hype. For a while it certainly looked like Stann would simply be a physical powerhouse that fell prey to every submission-capable fighter that even thought about a takedown, the kind of fighter a healthy Mike Massenzio would eat alive, but he has diligently improved his game and is actually a UFC-level talent at this point in time. Massenzio has been plauged by various injuries that have kept him from fighting since getting bashed up by TUF castoff C.B. Dolloway in 2008, which never bodes well for someone coming in against a decent opponent that has been staying properly active and competing at a high level.
Stann still will be vulnerable off his back, if Massenzio can put him there, but his defense has greatly improved and he’s still such a physical specimen that opponents will need to bring a serious wrestling game to put him down. The holes in Stann’s game mean that he could fail here, but he has enough advantages that he should be able to keep the fight on the feet and beat Massenzio up. Brian Stann by TKO round 1.
I think Stann is being undervalued because he looked completely inert and useless against Phil Davis in his last outing. Being held down by Phil Davis is nothing to be ashamed of, although being crushed by Dolloway is a pretty poor credential for a grappler to own. Stann will just be too much as a comeback fight for Massenzio, so he represents a good bet, although Stann still has enough weaknesses to keep this play normal-sized.
Darren Elkins (+260) vs. Charles Oliveira (-305)
Charles Oliveira has a ton of hype behind him. He’s a super-talented grappler with a natural aptitude for fighting, and he has the potential to eventually become a serious force in the UFC. However, despite his shiny undefeated record, he’s never fought anyone anywhere near a UFC-level talent, and it’s possible he has never even sparred with anyone at that level. He trains out of his own gym, a very small team with no notable talents. Elkins doesn’t come from a huge super-camp like an American Top Team or Greg Jackson school, but he does train with other UFC-level fighters and he has fought at this level before. If Oliveira doesn’t come correct and still has the failings of an unchallenged fighter, Elkins will find a way to wear him out and beat him down. Oliveira will certainly be a better grappler, but Elkins will probably have a striking and wrestling advantage, and will not make anything easy on the upstart. When the gap in level of experience is this great, it will probably overwhelm a gap in sheer talent. Darren Elkins by TKO round 3.
Elkins has to be a play with this level of hype for his opponent and such a big disparity in training. This is the kind of opportunity that must be capitalized on.
Rob Kimmons (-185) vs. Steve Steinbeiss (+175)
This is a loser-leaves town match, and honestly, the winner is just going to be a sacrificial lamb sometime soon and be bounced from the UFC. Since neither of these guys is perfect, either one could easily win if the other screws up. That said, Kimmons is a good deal better than Steinbeiss, and should be able to work him over, probably finishing with a guillotine choke. Rob Kimmons by submission round 1.
My plays
1.7u on Jake Ellenberger at (-170) to win 1u
1u on Brian Stann at (+150) to win 1.5u
1u on Darren Elkins at (+260) to win 2.6u
1.05u on Jacob Volkmann at (-105) to win 1u
