There are a lot of big MMA fights coming up in the second half of 2010 that I am really pumped to see. There’s also some potential fights out there that have been discussed (like Sarah Kaufman vs. Marloes Coenen) that haven’t been officially inked yet, so there’s some vagueness in regards to how the rest of the calendar year will be filled out. Nonetheless, based on fights already booked for the rest of this year, let’s take a look at five fights that I see coming up that I think will deliver big time and have everyone talking in year-end reviews.
1. Ronaldo “Jacare” vs. Tim Kennedy (Strikeforce event in Houston on August 21st)
This fight is set for the company’s Middleweight title, which was vacated when Jake Shields left to go to the UFC. The reason this fight has not gotten the hype like it should be is because everyone is kind of depressed that the company did not deliver on a major tournament style format (as promised) to crown a new champion. So, the promotion booked rising star Tim Kennedy against the man who a lot of people see as the future of non-Zuffa-controlled Middleweights in Jacare.
Both men come into the fight with some challenges. Kennedy looked great against Trevor Prangley last June in Los Angeles and was able to dominate an opponent that, frankly, everyone was surprised to see get dominated. It doesn’t mean that Kennedy is a world-beater after the performance, but he gained a lot of respect. Now he gets a guy in Jacare who has the ability to twist him like a pretzel (ask Mayhem Miller). The big question, as we saw in his fight last May in St. Louis against Joey Villasenor, is whether or not Jacare has improved his training and picked up the cardio. It’s talent and skill vs. conditioning and strength. Given Tim Kennedy’s military background, we know he’s in shape.
I expect this to be a war and for Jacare to get a submission win. This is a quality, legitimate test by Strikeforce promoters to see how far Jacare has come along. He was a stud in DREAM and now let’s see if that success translates over into the Strikeforce cage. I think this will be a great tactical battle and a battle of wills.
2. Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn for the UFC Lightweight title on August 28th in Boston
Their first war was last April in Abu Dhabi in ridiculous heat and conditions. Considering the performance both men displayed under those circumstances, they delivered a great technical bout. Edgar won the title on points and Penn largely has stayed silent about losing his title. Edgar out-boxed Penn and really took to the former champion.
The most intriguing storyline going into this fight is that Edgar, as champion, will be the underdog once again. There is so much on the line for Frankie in terms of proving to everyone that the first performance wasn’t a fluke, so I expect him to go balls-to-the-wall in this fight. As for Penn, I expect the same type of performance as last April but with better strategy and more of a desire to impose his will on the champion. After Edgar won this fight, the term ‘wrestle-boxer’ was coined by a lot of pundits about the prototype of UFC champions. The question is whether or not Penn can get this fight on the ground and be able to get Edgar in a submission. As we’ve seen in Edgar’s past wars with guys like Tyson Griffin, it’s a lot harder than it looks to beat the champion and make him submit.
Two guys who will not quit, combined with the excellent technical skill they both have, will make this a main event that will have ramifications for the next year or two in the UFC Lightweight division. A lot on the line and both are money players.
3. Evan Dunham vs. Sean Sherk this September in Indianapolis at Conseco Fieldhouse
Evan Dunham is now the trendy pick for everyone who wants to know who the next stud at Lightweight is. After his great performance against Tyson Griffin last June in Vancouver, Evan really stepped up his game. He dominated Tyson Griffin in all facets of the game. (Unfortunately, one judge actually had a score in favor of Griffin, which was horrible.) What we didn’t know at the time of the fight was whether or not Griffin was a first-tier or a second-tier Lightweight in the UFC. As his performance against Takanori Gomi on August 1st in San Diego showed, Griffin is now a second-tier Lightweight.
Which is why this fight against another second-tier Lightweight in Sean Sherk will prove to be critical as far as showing where Dunham’s career stands. Sherk will not fight in California due to his many issues with the state over drug testing (he failed a test there), so he’ll fight in a state not known for having a stringent commission in Indiana. Sherk is the kind of guy who will always plow through opponents. You know what he’s going to do. This will be more of a physical test for Dunham than a mental one. The reason I think this fight will be exciting, despite likely going to the score cards, is because Dunham’s going to try to figure out how to submit the wrestler. It’s one thing to put submission attempts on Tyson Griffin and not submit him but it’s another thing when you’re trying to do it on someone like Sherk who has always had so much potential but hasn’t peaked in the sport.
For Sherk, this is a fight he must absolutely win to hang around in the UFC. He needs to prove that he can still hang with the top contenders in the Lightweight division. Now, most Sean Sherk fights are not fights that you would check mark off as ‘entertaining,’ but I think the difference here in this contest is that Dunham will make him work. He will use his speed and his submissions to force Sherk to respond. Plus, Sherk has ring rust and that’s a big factor in fights as we’ve seen this year in the UFC. Even though Dunham will be the favorite, I still think it’s a 50/50 fight and I am looking forward to seeing how this will play out.
4. Dan Hardy vs. Carlos Condit this October at the O2 Arena in London, England for UFC 120
For the record, I fully expect Carlos Condit to win. But not in easy fashion.
This will be insanely enjoyable to watch. Condit will apply submission after submission attempt and get frustrated when Hardy doesn’t tap out, just like the fight last March against Georges St. Pierre. Condit’s faced stronger competition and I think has a stronger skill set, but he’s facing the hometown favorite and someone who has been spending his time in the States training and improving.
I definitely see this fight going the distance, but I do not see it dragging along. Condit will make Hardy work and react here by taking him down to the ground (Dan can’t stop takedowns) and pounding away on him. My guess is that Dan will have been training more from fighting off his back and that it will show here in spades. He’ll have so much adrenalin flowing given that this fight is happening in London that he’ll outperform and exceed expectations. If Hardy is able to beat Condit, he suddenly puts himself in the lower portion of the Top 5 of Welterweights. The same can be said for Condit.
5. Roger Huerta vs. Eddie Alvarez. (estimated for Bellator 33)
With Pat Curran (Bellator’s Lightweight tournament season two champion) injured, Roger Huerta is now getting a booking against Bellator Lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez. This was the fight that the promoters expected to happen all along, but Huerta stunning lost to Curran in Boston and was on the outside-looking-in.
Even stranger, TMZ pushed the story that Huerta beat up a man who was beating up a woman outside of a bar in Austin, Texas. Whether it was Huerta or wasn’t him, TMZ gave him enormous publicity and his name recognition shot through the roof.
Alvarez, to me, is a Top 5 Lightweight in the world, bar none. I think he’s the one guy outside of the UFC that can hang with the top UFC Lightweights. I always feel like it’s a privilege to watch him fight because he’s so good at what he does and you always expect him to finish off his opponent. In many ways, he is the antithesis of Roger Huerta. Huerta was supposed to be just like Eddie Alvarez in terms of being a major success in the UFC, but in the end he flaked out. He wanted to become a movie star. He wasn’t happy in the UFC. Then he signed a deal with Bellator and got a second chance, only to lose to Pat Curran. You got the sense after the Curran loss that mentally his head isn’t into MMA.
Now, however, he’s been given a third chance in this business. Getting a match against Eddie Alvarez is a big deal. If you beat Alvarez, suddenly your credibility shoots up very high. I don’t expect Huerta to win the fight, but I do expect the performance of a lifetime out of him. Why? Mentally, I think his head will be in this fight. I also expect him to be better prepared and not display as many flaws in his game for Alvarez to expose. A lot of fighters in MMA are lucky to get second chances and rarely do fighters who never made it get third chances, but Huerta has and this is why I expect this fight to be so much better than it has any right to be. The problem with Huerta has never been about his raw potential or physical tools. Against someone as physical and durable as Eddie Alvarez, it will be a great challenge. I expect to see a war between these two men and anything less will be a great disappointment.
