This is yet another farcical showing for Strikeforce. Aside from the headliner, featuring a hot prospect against one of the sport’s best personalities, they have a decent fight marred by the fact that it is for a belt abandoned by a champion that didn’t care enough to defend it, one of the most maligned of all UFC castoffs fighting a man who would rather be boxing but can’t hack it there, and a former pro wrestler trying to make a cash grab in a sport he doesn’t care about. All this card lacks is Scott Smith facing off with an NFL player. Well, that and any fight with odds worth betting on.
While that’s all very sad, Showtime and CBS have shown that they want MMA content, and there seems to be no shortage of fools with too much money that will sell such content to them at a loss. Put those two together and it seems that Strikeforce’s product will be around for a long time to come, more than many Japanese MMA promotions can claim at this point in time.
Champ Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal vs. Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante (for light heavyweight title) 
If you don’t remember who Feijao is, that’s because Strikeforce has given him virtually no airtime, favoring broadcasts of has-been fighters and former pro wrestlers or NFL players. Hardly the best method for building up one of your best talents for a title challenge. King Mo, on the other hand, is a self-promotion machine (as one would expect from a man whose goal in life is to stay thirsty and get that paper) and even without a significant push from Strikeforce, has pushed himself into pretty wide exposure throughout all levels of MMA media.
While this is a title fight, both of these men should still be in ‘developing prospect’ territory. Mo is a preternatural talent, but he is massively inexperienced, still developing virtually every facet of his game. Mo is so new at this that he is still making basic rookie mistakes. Much has been made of his limited gas tank after he slowed down drastically early in the Mousasi fight, and Mo himself admits that, despite coming in in great shape, he was holding his breath in tense moments of the fight, like a neophyte, which completely zapped his cardio. Many feel that exploiting this weakness would be Cavalcante’s best path to victory, which is pretty farcical.
Cavalcante is most dangerous on his feet, throwing strikes, although he’s fairly well-rounded. However, historically his biggest downfall is his discipline. The man likes to eat, and usually balloons up in weight in between fights, and often comes into the ring in less-than-stellar shape because of questionable dedication and the fact that he has to cut down from couch potato status to fight shape. This is why he lost the Mike Kyle fight.
Cavalcante will clearly be at a massive wrestling disadvantage to Lawal, which will do him no favors in the cardio department. He’ll probably be a superior striker, but Lawal has proven to be durable and agile on his feet, so it will be difficult to simply blow him away without getting taken down at the first sign of any trouble. On the ground Cavalcante is reasonably adept, but it will be extremely unlikely that he manages any sort of submission offense against Lawal’s base and instinctual control. If Lawal has his pacing under control, he should be able to wear Cavalcante down and then finish him in a burst of offense late in the fight. If he wears down again (which would indicate a more prolonged problem than just inexperience) then he should still be able to maintain control throughout for a decision. Muhammed Lawal by TKO round 4.
Tim Kennedy vs. Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (for vacant middleweight title) 
Jacare is one of the best pure grapplers on the planet. He’s also a gifted natural athlete with serious takedowns and a developing striking game. Tim Kennedy is a mid-level journeyman with well-rounded skills, but his only real chance of winning is hoping that Jacare really does have a terrible chin and falls over from an errant strike. If Kennedy can somehow avoid takedowns in the first round and wear Jacare out, then he should be able to piece together three rounds in his favor over the course of the fight, but really, this fight shouldn’t be very competitive. Just a good, if risky, workout for Souza, who is really becoming a great all-around fighter. Jacare Souza by submission round 1.
Jorge Gurgel vs. K.J. Noons 
The tiger can’t change his stripes. Gurgel will stand up and get bashed around by Noons. Even if Gurgel tries to go to the ground, Noons can probably shrug him off, which will just cause Gurgel to give up and bang it out. Just hope Noons brings some killer instinct instead of wandering around with a jab and wearing himself out. IF Noons goes for the kill, he should be able to knock Gurgel down and flurry for a finish. Either way you can expect the commentators to be filling in “Gurgel should fight on the ground” madlibs and Gurgel’s face to be swollen and bleeding, yet again. Yawn. K.J. Noons by TKO round 2.
Chad Griggs vs. Bobby Lashley 
Bobby Lashley is not Brock Lesnar. Nor is he serious about fighting. This man is a dabbler, picking up money for a sport he isn’t particularly committed to, because he has a famous name. He’s a talented athlete, but he’s also a steroid freak blown up from his college wrestling weight of 177 pounds to cartoon-like proportions at heavyweight. He’s got what it takes to get past Chad Griggs, which is why this fight was set up in the first place. Lashley will never be relevant as anything aside of a piece of trivia. If Lashley actually tries for a power submission on Griggs early in the fight, he can probably get it. Otherwise this will probably be a fifteen minute snoozefest. Bobby Lashley by decision.
PRELIMINARY CARD (Streamed live on Sherdog.com)
Daniel Cormier vs. Jason Riley 
Cormier, like cardmate Bobby Lashley, is blown up from his college wrestling weight, although in this case the unnatural chemicals likely came from a McDonald’s laboratory instead of a shady pharmaceutical company. The man would ideally be competing as a lightheavyweight, but he’s getting valuable experience by competing regularly against decent but beatable opposition, letting him grow into a superior fighter. There are two striking facts about Cormier’s recent career. First, unlike many wrestling converts, he’s already shown a strong ability to finish a fight by strikes or submission, which speaks volumes about his natural talent for the fight game. Secondly, he’s been on a massively compressed fight schedule recently, with this being his third fight in a month’s time.
This kind of schedule can help a prospect grow as they gain much-needed fight experience, but nothing wears a man down like fighting, so his team has to strike a delicate balance to manage Cormier’s physical health. It would perhaps have been wiser to schedule the fights in smaller promotions to follow the Strikeforce fight rather than the other way around, leaving him a window to pull out if he wasn’t at 100%.
Jason Riley shouldn’t pose a serious threat to Cormier, and you can expect another first round stoppage. Daniel Cormier by TKO, round 1.
Andre Galvao vs. Jorge Patino 
Jorge Patino is a legend of the sport, headlining the kind of old-school Vale Tudo cards that fighters like Wanderlei Silva came up on. He’s far, far past his physical and competitive prime, but he’s still tough enough for a fighter like Galvao to get some worthwhile experience on. Galvao will probably be able to have his way with the aging Patino, so the biggest challenge for him in this fight will be to keep up his work rate and look impressive against a tough but overmatched opponent without gassing out. The easiest path to victory for Galvao will probably be to use his incredible grappling acumen to ride dominant positions while throwing down punishment on Patino. Eventually Patino will be unable to defend himself, but fans should really take this as a reminder to go watch the classic Brazil Vale Tudo 6 event, for a real taste for the wild, wild roots of mixed rules fighting in Brazil. Andre Galvao by TKO round 2.
PRELIMINARY CARD (un-aired)
Rocky Long vs. Vinicius “Draculino” Magalhaes
Long is a complete jobber that has no business being on the undercard of a promotion that claims to be in competition with the UFC. If he manages to win this fight, there is almost no use for the man. Daculino is another super-elite grappler, but his transition to MMA has been rocky at best. It’s well known now that elite level BJJ does not necessarily translate into elite MMA capabilities. Furthermore, Draculino’s investment in the sport is basically nonexistent. He’s thirty-nine years old, and has taken two fights in the last seven years. This has all the hallmarks of an elite BJJ competitor simply trying to sell more copies of his instructional, get more students for his school, and get the opportunity to do more lucrative seminars, all while picking up a check for the opportunity. His participation in this meaningless fight is only worth commentary because his involvement in jiu-jitsu is so notable. Vinicius Magalhaes by submission, round 1.
