Fight Picks and Predictions for UFC 118: Odds and Ends

UFC 118 is a strange odds-and-ends type card. You have an utterly unpromoted champion rematching the former champion he never should have beaten, a Zuffa-style freak show fight, and a number one contender fight made between the most deserving challengers, neither of whom is much of a draw. This card is a junkyard dragster, pieced together from castoffs that don’t seem to have much merit on their own, but can be carefully arranged to act in concert and burn some serious rubber.

Champ Frankie Edgar (+250) vs. B.J. Penn (-310) (for lightweight title)

Edgar shouldn’t be the champion coming into this fight. BJ beat him in their first meeting, despite a poor overall level of performance from the Hawaiian, and with any gameplanning, physical improvements, or luck, BJ will beat him more clearly this time. Penn has physical size, better wrestling, sharper hands, more punching power, better submissions, and a better chin than Edgar. Last time out was the best Edgar could have hoped for, as a lethargic Penn was happy to engage in counterstriking and let Edgar move freely around the ring. Although Penn landed strikes in roughly equivalent number to Edgar and Edgar remained more active with his movement, Penn’s punches were far harder and more effective than Edgar’s.

All that Penn really needs to do to correct the error in judgement is force the issue more. More engagements in the standup will favor Penn, and more wrestling and more groundwork will similarly work in his benefit. Edgar has to fight for a decision, whereas Penn is a versatile and dynamic finishing threat. Proper judging is tough to find, but it’s not a foregone conclusion that Penn will need it. However, if Edgar continues to try to play keep-away, then Penn should still be able to crack him with hard counter shots and win on the scorecards. BJ Penn by submission round 3.

Randy Couture (-575) vs. James Toney (+450)

Have you seen UFC 1? If so, then you know everything you really need to know. Couture is old and a bit rickety, but Toney is old and quite fat. All Couture needs is one good trick to get a hold of Toney and dump him over, as there’s zero chance Toney worked hard enough to know any escapes from the bottom or any defense against the most tepid ground and pound or submission offense. Make no mistake-Toney is here for a paycheck, and it’s not like his sense of professional pride will keep him from giving up as soon as he starts getting hit without being able to make it stop. Randy Couture by submission round 1.

Demian Maia (-205) vs. Mario Miranda (+205)

This is your typical strong style clash (which is basically the description for every one of Maia’s fights). Maia is a serviceable striker, but he doesn’t have the power to worry anyone, and he’s only going to out-point below-average strikers like Dan Miller. Miranda isn’t much better than average as a striker, but he does have some pop and could worry Maia if this turns into a dogfight.

Despite his apparent impotence against Anderson Silva, Maia can actually get takedowns, although they need to come from the clinch or from pulling guard into a sweep. The man has ways of getting fights to the floor, and that’s where he can take Miranda out easily. Maia has super-dangerous finishing ability on the floor, and will get Miranda there unless Miranda manages to perfectly recreate the Marquardt fight. Demian Maia by submission round 1.

Kenny Florian (-155) vs. Gray Maynard (+130)

Gray Maynard is a really good wrestler that is quite large for the division. He also has acceptable standup and tends to slow down late in fights. Kenny Florian is one of the more surprising talents to step into the game, showing a natural talent for the game and an obsessive mindset that has carefully honed his natural talents to maximum efficacy. He hasn’t shown the level of talent of a champion yet, and seems forever destined to bump his head against the glass ceiling of his own limited abilities, but only when he is facing pantheon-level fighters in his division.

Florian will not be bullied by Maynard, who has feasted on smaller and weaker fighters. If Florian ends up on his back, he may get stuck there, as his guard work seems to be his greatest weakness. However, Florian has developed his striking to the point where he can slice up a plodding and defensively open Maynard, and keep enough distance to set up proper defense of Maynard’s takedown attempts. Maynard’s best chance of victory in this fight is to spend a lot of time in top position and hope poor judging overlooks his lack of effective offense. Maynard is tough, so Florian will have trouble finishing him, but the result should be a one-sided decision for Kenny, setting up yet another tilt at the title he’s infinitely more likely to be able to take from Frankie Edgar than BJ Penn. Kenny Florian by decision.

The Public continues to buy into the “Kenny Florian is an overachiever” story, but the fact is that the man is very talented, even if he isn’t as good as BJ Penn. He’s a much more complete fighter than Gray Maynard, and the odds do not reflect that. I like a bet on Florian here.

Marcus Davis (+175) vs. Nate Diaz (-200)

Marcus Davis is a fighter that should be coming to terms with his own diminishing physical ability and recognize his reduced stature in the sport. However, Davis is either too stupid or too stubborn to accept this, and continues to fight as if his title shot and perpetual glory are just right around the corner. He will go to war with Diaz and Diaz will oblige him, having never been shy about taking risks or damage in order to throw a punch or two back.

If Davis has not physically deteriorated too badly, his superior power and crisper boxing should let him tag up a wide-open and weak-hitting Diaz. However, if Diaz can clip Davis early and drop him, things could get really ugly. Most of the time Davis will be able to use his wrestling advantage to take down the hapless Diaz, even if rocked, and he is a savvy enough grappler that he should be safe in Diaz’s guard. If Davis is really completely shot now, Diaz will knock him around the cage and take a decision. If not, Davis will do enough damage and maintain enough control to win on points. Marcus Davis by decision.

The Diaz brothers, especially Nate Diaz, are extremely overrated. They are both excellent fighters, but Nate Diaz has about a .500 record against decent opposition. There’s every chance Davis is physically shot, but if he’s not +165 will be a great value to get on him against a fighter without much punching power and no wrestling.

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)
Joe Lauzon (-345) vs. Gabe Ruediger (+325)

How to beat Joe Lauzon: avoid his initial hustle offense, stay out of bad positions, defend his takedowns, and crack him with punches. The man has some of the worst staying power in the lightweight division, probably because much of his offense depends on frantic energy-dumps and aggression, which leaves little in the tank for later rounds. His submission game is predicated almost entirely on aggression, without the kind of guard-playing finesse that can protect a fighter and preserve energy for later in the fight, which means that solid fighters like a Sam Stout can have a field day with him if they don’t get tapped out immediately.

Unfortunately for Reudiger, he also lacks that sort of staying power and doesn’t have the kind of power or submission offense to get Lauzon out of the cage early. This fight could get really ugly if neither man can find a finish, with a worn-down Lauzon grappling with a desperate Reudiger for the 10-9 rounds each man will need to win a decision. Lauzon should have the chops to throw down some ground and pound on Reudiger and soften him up for a finish, however. Joe Lauzon by submission round 1.

Nik Lentz (EVEN) vs. Andre Winner (-115)

Winner has sharpened up his boxing to the point where he has some of the sharpest combinations in the division, but he’s still not a standout fighter. Similarly, Lentz can work pretty well on the feet, but lacks the supporting skills to ensure he can do the job on the mat. The style matchup favors Winner, who has already crowned a dangerous but physically wimpy grappler in Roli Delgado. Winner is by no means bulletproof on the floor, so if he slips up and gets taken down, his time there will be fraught with peril, but his punching accuracy means that he should be able to land some shots early in the fight and make Lentz get desperate, which will let Winner defend the takedowns more easily and stay in the driver’s seat. Andrew Winner by decision.

PRELIMINARY CARD
Dan Miller (-285) vs. John Salter (+235)

Bad luck for Salter. He’s a pretty decent prospect and probably would have beat up an aged Phil Baroni. Unfortunately he now has to fight a much different threat that is far more well-rounded. Miller isn’t as good a striker as Salter, but he’s tough enough to last on the feet, and his wrestling and submission game should be enough to dominate Salter. If Salter has made leaps-and-bounds type improvements in his takedown defense, Miller could really be in trouble, as he struggles with everyone he can’t outwrestle. Miller isn’t about to set the world on fire, but he is so much more experienced that he will be too much for Salter to handle. Dan Miller by decision.

Nick Osipczak (-155) vs. Greg Soto (+135)

With only two losses between them, this pair looks like a matchup of high-quality prospects ready to make a mark in the big leagues, but the reality is that the guy that loses this fight is probably getting the boot, and the winner will struggle to hang on to a roster spot. Both are solid fighters, but neither has shown any kind of standout talent that would merit serious consideration as belonging in the top of the division. This is the kind of fight that boils down to who comes in better prepared more than an overall style matchup. Osipczak has been more consistent and should be favored, but it’s really either man’s fight. Nick Osipczak by decision.

Amilcar Alves (+215) vs. Mike Pierce (-250)

Amilcar is a grappling specialist coming out of the Vaunted Nova Uniao camp. As the joke goes, that means you can expect him to bring some crushing standup. While the camp formerly known for champion-level grappling now seems to have a magic formula for turning BJJ black belts into killers like Jose Aldo and Marlon Sandro, Alves will probably be forced to grapple. Pierce is a massive physical powerhouse of a wrestler with huge natural punching power. That’s a bad combination for a jiu-jitsu player, as it means that any submission Alves hopes to work will need to come off his back and come quickly, or else he’ll be too bashed up to work with any finesse. Mike Pierce by TKO round 2.

My plays:
2.6u on Kenny Florian at (-130) to win 2u
1u on Marcus Davis at (+165) to win 1.65u