It’s been a while since there was a free MMA show on Spike. UFC Fight Night 22: Marquardt vs. Palhares is a great way to break that streak, as it features lots of high-caliber fighters that are poor draws, making it a feast for hardcore fans that costs the UFC little in passed-over PPV buys.
Nate Marquardt (-220) vs. Rousimar Palhares (+190)
On Paper, this fight should be a walkover for Marquardt as long as he can stay on the feet. In reality, it’s much more interesting. Marquardt gets hit. Marquardt gets wild and out of control. Marquardt gets taken down when he shouldn’t. Palhares is a very known quantity, a super-dangerous leglocker with massive physical tools and a drag-racer gas tank, but that has a better shot of working out for him than many are giving him credit for. Marquardt was put on his ass by Thales Leites. Surely then, Palhares has a chance of landing one of those flailing haymakers and putting Marquardt down long enough to get his grapple on, even if Marquardt is a better wrestler. Marquardt sometimes makes poor decisions in the ring, which could again give Palhares a chance to dive onto an ankle or take the back.
Marquardt has an enormous advantage on the feet, but Palhares has an excellent chin, giving him some of the staying power despite his terrible gas tank. Like Mazakazu Imanari, Palhares flashy specialty in leg-locks has provided a smoke screen for the fact that he is a very nasty all-around grappler, but Marquardt is as good a defensive grappler as you’re going to find in this division.
In short, Palhares, despite having a chance to submit any man alive, is a very clearable hurdle for someone with as many advantages as Marquardt, but in order to assure success Marquardt will need to control the brute wildness that serves him so well at times. If Marquardt just gets buckwild trying to bash Palhares up, he could very well gas himself out and get slam-dunked, or just give up an easy takedown and get strangled. Palhares is just too limited to win very often otherwise, and having to sneak your victory in at the cracks is not a winning strategy in the long run. Nate Marquardt by TKO round 2.
At first blush Marquardt is undervalued, given how many advantages he has over Palhares, and the fight could very well end up looking like he should have been at -500, but with Marquardt’s wildness in the ring leaving very exploitable gaps in his defense, the line is properly set.
Efrain Escudero (-165) vs. Charles Oliveira (+160)
Charles Oliveira isn’t ready for this. The level of opposition he’s completely stormed through has nothing whatsoever in common with Efrain Escudero, a complete and well-rounded high-level fighter. The only weakness Efrain has demonstrated are occasional mental lapses, like what cost him the fight against Evan Dunham or let an out-of-shape Dan Lauzon survive to the final bell. Oliveira, on the other hand, has serious holes in his wrestling and boxing, the kind that need years of work to patch up.
In short, although there’s a slim chance Efrain screws up badly and lets Oliveira tap him, this fight will probably be utterly one-sided, with Efrain stopping takedowns and counter-punching Oliveira all day. Oliveira’s hype ends now, although he will probably develop into a decent mid-level fighter eventually. Efrain Escudero by KO round 1.
Oliveira is being overrated because of his glossy record, and betting on Efrain is some good value.
Jim Miller (-150) vs. Gleison Tibau (+125)
Gleison is a huge physical hulk with no real magic in his game two thirds of the time, who looks like an absolute world-beater the other third of the time. The common thread in his dominant performances is that he is able to dictate the fight with his striking. Miller is not about to enter K-1 MAX, but he should have enough of the fundamentals and a strong enough chin to keep Tibau from building up a head of steam and flattening him.
Both men are much stronger defensively than offensively, so this fight has a strong likelihood of slowing the show down to a crawl and being decided in the gaps, rather than being a revelatory performance from either man. Tibau’s game in such fights consists of little more than hulking out and trying to slam his opponent, which will be ineffective against a decent wrestler like Miller. Expect lots of frustrated clinching, some positional exchanges, and Miller doing enough on the feet to win rounds. A close fight like this with limited offense is also the kind most often screwed up by the judges, so you can probably put money on a split decision. Jim Miller by decision.
Cole Miller (+215) vs. Ross Pearson (-270)
Ross Pearson is a terrible style matchup for Miller. Miller is not very physical or durable, and those are the operative words for Pearson. Pearson doesn’t have crackling lights-out offense at this point, but he’s as solid as they come in terms of physicality and grit. Miller will have a reach advantage and probably an edge in terms of submission offense, but he won’t be able to get this fight to the floor. Pearson will be in the driver’s seat in terms of dictating the location and pace of the fight, and he will keep his foot on the gas just enough to roll over Miller. Miller can be stopped, but Pearson doesn’t have the natural boxing of Efrain Escudero or the enormous power of Jeremy Stevens, so, provided he doesn’t get caught in a submission, the final result will be Ross Pearson by decision.
PRELIMINARY CARD
John Gunderson (-115) vs. Yves Edwards (-110)
Yves Edwards does not know how to win fights. He’s very talented, so sometimes this happens incidentally to his actions in the ring, but he continually carries out actions that do not serve his best interests in the ring. He should be able to beat John Gunderson, who doesn’t have the kind of skills or electric offense Yves can produce in his finer moments, but at this point, it is clear that Yves has some sort of mental block in his game and will not be able to get past even the bottom of the UFC talent pool. Expect lots of frustrating inactivity from Yves interspersed with just enough flashes of offense to make it clear he has the skills to win this fight but won’t use them. John Gunderson by decision.
Jared Hamman (-170) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (+155)
Hamman lacks fight intelligence, and has never met a punch he didn’t want to take to the face. This is not a lesson he’s about to learn, as he bounced back from a losing brawl against Alexander Gustafsson by initiating brawl after brawl with Rodney Wallace and getting hit repeatedly by a man a head shorter than himself. Kingsbury is not a very good fighter, but he is a good athlete and could pop Hamman if Jared continues to fight in such a sloppy and ridiculous fashion. All told, Kingsbury hasn’t shown much staying power in the cage and Hamman has, so unless Hamman really gets in an ugly brawl and gets put down hard, he’ll wear Kingsbury down and take control of the fight. Jared Hamman by decision.
Dave Branch (+140) vs. Tomasz Drwal (-155)
It must be mentioned that Tomasz “Gorilla” Drwal has one of the better nicknames to come down the MMA pipeline, although I’m sure he’d trade that for some more reach and a bigger gas tank. Branch isn’t about to light the world on fire, but he’s sturdy enough to make it out of the first round, and that’s all he’ll really need. With his reach advantage he should be able to use his crisper striking to tag up Drwal, leading to “Gorilla” getting badly worn down and stopped, with a TKO or submission being equally likely. Dave Branch by TKO, round 2.
Rich Attonito (+165) vs. Rafael Natal (-175)
Want to see a TUF Alum get KO’d? Who doesn’t? Beating Travis Lutter doesn’t mean much at this point, but Natal really can crack, and Attonito’s only claim to fame is being sturdy and well-rounded enough to outlast Jamie Yager. Unless Natal gasses himself out massively beating on Attonito, he should be able to bust him up and finish him off. Rafael Natal by TKO round 1.
David Mitchell (-215) vs. Anthony Waldburger (+190)
If someone could explain how Anthony Waldburger is in the UFC at any level, please use the email link at the top of this article. With the UFC so relentlessly attempting to keep their roster size down, it seems kind of silly to bring in someone like this to serve as nothing more than a warm body. Don’t they have someone on their roster already that can give Mitchell a workout?
Mitchell is just being handed some ringtime here. He’s a Dave Terrell product, and will have a significant grappling advantage on Waldburger, and with Waldburger being more or less completely one-dimensional and having little to offer beyond his own submission game, Mitchell should cruise to victory without too much fuss. Mitchell probably isn’t really UFC-ready at this point, but he should look impressive here and overwhelm Waldburger with his aggressive submission attack. David Mitchell by submission round 2.
Brian Foster (-271) vs. Forrest Petz (+230)
Brian Foster is coming off the double whammy of a broken leg and a dislocated ankle, gained on a basketball court. The Midwest is serious about its roundball. The immediate return from that kind of injury can really hamper someone, or it can be a complete non-issue. Petz’s only real hope is that Foster is not nearly at 100%, as Foster will really grind him up if he’s ready to return to the ring.
For a bit of trivia, Foster’s maintained a perfect 100% finishing rate in his fights. That’s because he hits really, really hard. Petz has never been stopped by strikes, but when Foster puts power on guys, they feel it. Look for Foster to rough Petz up early and get the stoppage within the time limit. Brian Foster by TKO round 1.
My Plays:
1.65u on Efrain Escudero at (-165) to win 1u
