WEC 52: Faber vs. Mizugaki serves a couple needs for Zuffa. Primary among those is the necessity of eliminating fighters from the roster, as there will be even less space when the UFC has seven weight classes. Secondarily, elite fighters need to be groomed and set up for maximum marketability in their UFC debuts, which results in things like a maincard that’s almost entirely populated with the elite of the always-popular Team Alpha Male. This card should be a real treat, as virtually every fight is set up to produce an action-packed or tightly contested bout.
Urijah Faber (-345) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (+300)
It’s been an interesting couple of years for Urijah Faber. The Zuffa-owned WEC was essentially built on his back, and the increased public awareness of “The California Kid” has been lucrative. However, the WEC’s shining light also concentrated featherweight talent in the promotion. Faber’s star power has increased, but his in-ring success has been limited, as he dropped a pair of fights to Mike Brown and was completely dominated by Jose Aldo. In a move familiar to fans of Randy Couture or Diego Sanchez, Faber has opted to reclaim relevance by switching divisions, moving down to bantamweight and taking on the mystery that is Takeya Mizugaki.
Mizugaki was not really on the radar for most fight fans prior to his replacing Brian Bowles in challenging Miguel Torres at WEC 40. However he put on an extremely competitive fight with the then-champ and gained a lot of accolades in a losing performance. The thing that makes Mizugaki difficult to evaluate is that his best performances have been losing efforts where he kept things close with elite fighters. He’s followed up each of these performances with underwhelming victories, struggling quite a bit with Jeff Curran and Rani Yahya, both talented fighters who aren’t ranked in the same realm as Torres or Jorgensen. Is Mizugaki truly an elite fighter, or is he just tough enough to keep things competitive against elite fighters with defensively open styles that tend to produce competitive fights?
Mizugaki will certainly be an excellent test for Faber at the new weight. He is long enough to challenge the stubby former champ, he has good defensive wrestling, and he’s hard to submit. Faber, for all his success, does not have one skill that can reliably blow out opponents, so he will struggle with someone as defensively sound and well-rounded as Mizugaki. However, Faber does have a surplus of hustle, as well as that extra indefinable spark that lets him seize opportunities that fighters that are better technicians might miss. Rani Yahya is undeniably a superior grappler to Faber, but Faber is probably more likely to find a way to submit Mizugaki, due to his ability to be a ‘playmaker’ in scrambles and turn nothing into something. For Faber, as with many of his Team Alpha Male brethren, this usually comes in the form of a guillotine choke.
Mizugaki will prove to be a tough fight, and the three round format won’t give Faber long enough to really wear him down, but Faber should maintain control of the fight and put Mizugaki in enough bad positions in scrambles to pick up at least two rounds and take the decision if not finish him outright. Urijah Faber by decision.
Chad Mendes (-285) vs. Javier Vazquez (+250)
This is as well-made a test fight as can be found. Not only will both the fighters be thoroughly evaluated, but it could very well provide a referendum on the judges as well. Mendes is a very talented athlete, but his toolbox is pretty limited right now. He’s transitioned his wrestling to MMA quite well, and he’s developed that nasty guillotine choke that everyone at Team Alpha Male seems to have, but he really doesn’t have a lot of offensive firepower. Javier Vazquez has always been greased lightning on the mat, and he’s greatly improved his standup, but his weakness has always been getting taken down and stuck on his back. Vazquez has an excellent guard, but it’s extremely difficult to find an opportunity to finish a modern fighter off one’s back, and trying to do that has cost Vazquez victories in winnable fights.
Vazquez has come to realize that he needs to stay offensive, trying to sweep and improve position instead of giving up rounds in hopes of cooking an opponent to a finish like Royce Gracie in UFC 1. He was far more aggressive in his last two fights, securing finishes, albeit against lesser opponents. It remains to be seen if Vazquez can translate his intellectual awareness of what he needs to do to win into in-ring performance. All too often a fighter’s gameplan goes right out the window when leather starts flying, and Vazquez has a tall order ahead of him even if he fights to his best interests.
It goes without saying that Mendes will take this fight to the ground. Vazquez is a far more dangerous striker, and Mendes will resort to what he does best. From there, the winner will be determined by the level of offense Mendes is able to produce, how effectively he can control Vazquez, and how competent the judges are. Vazquez can be as active and effective as he likes off his back, but if the judges aren’t paying attention and simply score rounds for whoever is on top, it will all be for naught. Unfortunately, Vazquez has a history of being overlooked by judges, having lost questionable decisions in his first two WEC tilts.
Chad Mendes is a very talented athlete from a great camp that produces excellent grapplers, so it will be very hard for Vazquez to finish him, and he stands a good chance of using his wrestling base to nullify everything Vazquez can throw at him, so he must be favored to win this fight, even if it will likely be quite close. Chad Mendes by decision.
The odds are not well-set. Mendes low offensive output could really become glaringly obvious against someone with as active a guard as a motivated Vazquez, so Javi has a good chance of pulling the upset here, and the long odds must be taken. Enthusiasm for the line must be tempered by the unreliability of the judges, however.
Erik Koch (-360) vs. Francisco Rivera (+300)
There is a huge gap in experience in this fight. Rivera has run roughshod over very poor opposition while Koch has been working his way through a schedule of progressively more talented fighters. Rivera is undefeated and most of his matches have been first-minute squashes. He is not ready for a fighter that won’t instananeously collapse under his offense. Koch will dominate this fight. Erik Koch by submission, round 1.
Joseph Benavidez (-245) vs. Wagnney Fabiano (+220)
The most miniscule member of Team Alpha male looks to rebound off his close decision loss in a title challenge of unlikely divisional kingpin Dominick Cruz against a Wagnney Fabiano still looking to regain direction in a career derailed in his loss in a tune-up fight to Mackens Semerzeir. Fabiano will have a huge size advantage in this fight, having competed at lightweight, and that could cause problems for Benavidez, who is undersized even at bantamweight. The great equalizer will be Benavidez’s wrestling advantage, which will keep Fabiano from being able to put his weight on him and use his crushing top game.
Fabiano is a Nova Uniao product, with the killer submission game that team produces, but he hasn’t really shown the kind of devestating striking teammates like Jose Aldo or Marlon Sandro have demonstrated. Benavidez is no Mike Tyson on the feet, but he should be able to beat Fabiano to the punch and stay active enough to keep out of too much danger.
Fabiano does his best work from top position, and he simply will not get it against a wrestler and scrambler like Benavidez. The Team Alpha Male product should be able to get takedowns and hustle Fabiano until he slows down and the decision becomes lopsided. Joseph Benavidez by decision.
Demetrious Johnson (+300) vs. Damacio Page (-320)
Demetrious Johnson is a tiny, tiny fighter that is hurt by the WEC/UFC merger delaying the introduction of a 125-pound division. His physical wrestling style is badly handicapped by the size and strength advantage he gives up to every opponent, and not being able to take this fight to the floor will hurt him badly.
Damacio Page is a destroyer. He has the kind of uncoachable preternatural punching power that can end a fight at any moment, and he knows it. He will pursue the knockout early in this fight, and unless Johnson can find a way to contain him quickly with wrestling, this will be very ugly. Damacio Page by knockout round 1.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Raphael Assuncao (+135) vs. L.C. Davis (-160)
This bout matches up two fighters that have progressed from prospects into tough gatekeepers to the stars. A fighter who can beat either of these guys is someone that’s ready to take on anyone in the world. The winner here will likely recapture relevance in the top of the division and deserve to be set up in title eliminators for yet another march towards glory.
This will be an up and down fight as neither man has a great advantage in any respect. Assuncao is plodding on the feet, but he hits hard and is very durable. Davis isn’t a great technician with his hands, but he’s fast and powerful. Assuncao is a better submission artist, but he will have trouble getting threatening positions on someone with Davis’ base.
Assuncao is extremely difficult to finish, so he has an advantage, in that he could catch Davis with his nasty guillotine or beat him up with his power punching. However, Assuncao’s more potent offense requires that he use it intelligently. In a three-round sprint of a fight, pulling guillotines that fail and giving up rounds is all too likely, especially with a control artist like Davis. This fight could easily swing either way and will probably come down to a few decisive moments: whether Davis fails or succeeds in a takedown in a contentious round could seal the fight. Assuncao’s more potent offense carries the day more often than not, however. Raphael Assuncao by decision.
Edward Faaloloto (+300) vs. Anthony Njokuani (-400)
Anthony Njokuani needs an attitude adjustment. No fighter has ever achieved long-term success at a high level by deriding the ground game and those who practice it. Unless Njokuani realizes that his loss to Roller reflects a competitive deficit he needs to work hard at overcoming, rather than a lesser man taking a cheap victory, he’ll never live up to his full potential. There is quite a lot of potential to live up to, as well. Njokuani has some of the cleanest striking technique around, and has the build to make great use of it.
Because he’s an exciting, marketable fighter, Njokuani is being given a very soft touch here. Faaloloto is putatively a submission fighter, Njokuani’s Achilles heel, but he’s also massively inexperienced, barely out of the amateur league. His two victories are against opponents with a combined 0-3 professional record. Njokuani is just going to take him apart and get back to his winning ways. Anthony Njokuani by knockout round 1.
Njokuani is fallible as a fighter, but this is a complete mismatch. I usually don’t lay down on huge favorites like this, but it’s hard not to in this case.
Zack Micklewright (-115) vs. Dustin Poirier (-105)
This is a loser-leaves-town matchup in the last days of the WEC, since Zuffa doesn’t have the card space to let even a talented fighter float around with a string of losses. Realistically, either man could take it. Neither has a significant advantage in any area and both are young enough to improve drastically between fights. Whoever comes in with the better plan after having the better camp will take this. Poirier has demonstrated more in his recent fights, and has the power to take advantage of Micklewright’s porous defense, just as Palaszewski did. Dustin Poirier by decision.
Clint Godfrey (+115) vs. Michael McDonald (-115)
Michael McDonald hits really, really hard. He’s a freak. He’s going to hit Godfrey, and Godfrey is going to fall over. Michael McDonald by KO round 1.
Yves Jabouin (+190) vs. Brandon Visher (-200)
This should be a very exciting fight. Both men are skilled, if a bit one-dimensional, strikers, and Jabouin brings some really flashy moves into the cage. Either man can finish with high-octane offense, but Jabouin is too hittable to deal with Visher’s power. Eventually Visher will land a punch that changes the momentum of the fight and lets him seal the deal. Visher by TKO round 2.
Mackens Semerzier (+200) vs. Cub Swanson (-212)
Semerzier is still coasting on the momentum he got by upsetting Wagnney Fabiano as a late replacement in what was supposed to be a gimmie fight to keep Fabiano busy while an elite opponent could be lined up for him. He’s since shown he isn’t ready to compete at the highest level, although he does have the tools to grow into an elite fighter. Cub Swanson, for all his tendency to get blown out incredibly quickly, belongs here, and will put on a clinic against Semerzier. Mackens will not embarrass himself, but he won’t win. Cub Swanson by decision.
My Plays:
1u on Javier Vazquez at (+250) to win 2.5u
2u on Anthony Njokuani at (-400) to win .5u
