Strikeforce: Henderson vs. Babalu is going to be exciting, but it could feature a lot of awkward moments as the Strikeforce production team struggles to fill the gaps left by lots of first-round finishes. They’ve had time woes in the past with events running massively over their budgeted time, but it will be interesting to see if they can approximate the UFC’s slickness with filling large gaps between fights.
Dan Henderson (-245) vs. Renato “Babalu” Sobral (+200)
Dan Henderson is old. He’s still tough, and he still punches really hard, but last time out of the gate he was outwrestled and dominated by a blown up welterweight with no striking. If Henderson cannot intimidate Jake Shields with his power enough to stop his shots, Babalu is going to be too much for him. Babalu could lose this fight, since he has a bad habit of walking straight into huge strikes and getting starched, but with Henderson’s gas tank, he really only has to avoid being knocked out in the first round. Beyond the five-minute mark, Henderson seems to lose most of his steam. He shut down in a big way against Shields, and he’ll probably do the same against Babalu.
Henderson has always been far easier to take down than his pedigree would suggest, because he tends to get too wild when he’s allowed to throw punches and the general vagaries of MMA that make it different from wrestling. Babalu isn’t a Cain Velasquez, but he has enough of a wrestling game to get on top of Henderson, and from there he has a very underrated submission game. Henderson’s grappling has always been non-traditional. He is terrible from a traditional jiu-jitsu perspective, with a very weak guard and a tendency to give up all kinds of dominant positions and submission attempts. However, Henderson is also a very natural scrambler and usually finds a way to squirm out of even very deep submission attempts. Babalu will need to catch something picture-perfect to actually elicit a tap from Henderson, but even a failed attempt will score points with the judges and wear Henderson down. Unless Babalu walks right into a killer overhand right, he should assert himself in the second and third rounds of this fight to take home the victory. Renato “Babalu” Sobral by decision.
Babalu is still widely available at +200 or higher. Those are great odds.
Paul Daley (-400) vs. Scott Smith (+300)
This is a rough fight for Scott Smith. It’s nice that he’s able to get on tv because of his reputation for being exciting to watch, but it’s unfortunate that excitement comes because you know he’s going to take a brutal beating every time he goes out because he lacks any sort of intelligent defense. Paul Daley is one of the hardest punchers in the division, so hopefully he’ll make it quick for Smith. Paul Daley by KO round 1.
Robbie Lawler (-155) vs. Matt Lindland (+155)
Robbie Lawler is a flawed fighter. He has always been a dangerous striker and has only improved in that respect, but he continues to show great vulnerabilities in terms of defensive wrestling and a propensity to get tapped out really quickly. Lindland was the prototype for the lanky grinding style of wrestlers like Jon Fitch, but he has not developed his other skills to the same level as more modern fighters. Lindland’s big weakness now is that he’s old. He seems creaky in the ring and quite fragile. Lawler has big power, although he frequently seems to be looking to slowly batter opponents into submission, rather than fishing one the one-shot knockout like so many other sluggers. It won’t take too many punches from Lawler to end the night very badly for Lindland. Lindland’s best chance is to lock up his nasty guillotine on Lawler, who will have serious trouble extricating his giant melon from Lindland’s octopus-like grasp.
This fight will almost certainly have a finish in it. Lindland cannot simply control Lawler for three rounds without getting knocked out, and if Lawler is in control of the fight, Lindland can’t take three rounds of beatings. Lindland’s only chance is to grab a hold of Lawler’s neck and finish him off before the knockout comes. At this stage of his career, that’s a longshot. Robbie Lawler by TKO round 1.
Lawler was available at -140 or better, which represented a good play given his high liklihood of crushing Lindland here. -155 is less enticing, but still playable.
Mike Kyle (+300) vs. Antonio Silva (-400)
Antonio Silva is being given a good warm-up fight here. He’s a far superior fighter to Kyle and has big stylistic advantages. Kyle is severely lacking on the ground, and will likely get hustled and beat up if Silva takes him down. On the feet, Kyle is threatening, and anyone can get knocked out in heavyweight MMA, but Silva has proven far more durable than his flash KO to Pele would have one believe. Unless Kyle can really pile on the damage and get a stoppage early on, Silva is going to run riot all over him in a very painful fashion. Silva, despite being a skilled grappler, does not often go for submissions, preferring to achieve dominant position and throw down a beating. As he’s being scraped off the mat, Kyle will probably wish Silva was more of a Demian Maia. Antonio Silva by TKO round 2.
Benji Radach (+120) vs. Ovince St. Preux (-130)
Benji Radach is the quintessential action fighter, perfect for a curtain-jerker on the television broadcast. He is an aggressive brawler with big punching power and limited durability. Radach is always coming out to kill or be killed, and that makes for exciting fights. St. Preux has enough power to put Radach down, but Radach is never far from a killshot. This is anybody’s fight, but the book on Radach has been out for a long time, so St. Preux should come prepared to defend against the bombs and find a counter. St. Preux by KO round 1.
My Plays:
1u on Renato “Babalu” Sobral at (+210) to win 2.1u
1.4u on Robbie Lawler at (-140) to win 1u
