Fight Picks and Predictions for UFC 124: The Champ Is Here

By Nicholas Bailey

Whenever Georges St. Pierre fights, it is a major event in MMA. He’s the sport’s preeminent champion and athlete, with a list of victories that could be cut into thirds and handed out to three highly-regarded champions. His is a performance that stands on its own. He’s the champion not just of the UFC’s welterweight division, but of MMA. There is no co-main event to UFC 124: St-Pierre vs. Koscheck. The McCorkle-Struve fight is not so labeled, nor should it be. It exists. It is a fight. It should be entertaining, but it is not a load-bearing structure in this particular architecture. Georges is fighting in Canada, and that’s all there needs to be on this night.


Champ Georges St-Pierre (-400) vs. Josh Koscheck (+340) (for welterweight title)

Josh Koscheck is a very unpleasant human being who is a very good wrestler and hits really, really hard when he connects with one of his fastball overhand rights. He’s dangerous, and it’s very unpleasant on a number of levels to lose to him. Georges St. Pierre does not draw the same kind of visceral reaction Koscheck does. You like GSP if you like winners, and if you dislike winners, you don’t. Winning is all GSP does. It’s what drives him and what his character is based around. He doesn’t strive to play a role like Koscheck does, he simply avoids anything that would distract him from becoming better and winning more. It doesn’t matter to GSP who he is fighting or what they have said, all that matters to him is testing himself against them and emerging the winner.

This maniacal focus has brought GSP to the peak of MMA. He has, without question, the strongest record of any MMA fighter, ever. He has the most functional wrestling in the sport, and he has the greatest synthesis of all the various skills that go into MMA. Yet he could still easily lose this fight.

Josh Koscheck is no dummy. He knows that to win this fight, he’s going to have to hit GSP and hurt him with that first shot. He has the power to do it, and it will only require one moment of bad luck or lapsed focus for it to happen. GSP knows this too, and his accute sense of his own mortality has led him to exerting Machiavellian levels of control over his opponents in the ring to deny them any opportunity to make a play. He strikes to frustrate their footwork and timing, then explodes into takedowns to frustrate their striking. On the ground he pounds to frustrate an opponent’s guardwork, and the passes when they become defensive. He completely controls his opponent at all times, even when he is not touching them, because he doesn’t want to give them a chance to become a chaotic variable like Matt Serra did that fateful night.

Thus, Josh Koscheck will look like he’s in the fight. He’ll be throwing punches. He might defend some takedowns or land some of his own, but Georges will be one step ahead of him. Koscheck’s punches will simply be opportunities for GSP to kick, his kicks invitations for takedowns. GSP will probably show off more of his massively under-rated standup game because the takedowns won’t come as easily as usual, but Koscheck’s predictable punching style will give the champion an excellent canvas to work on.

Koscheck doesn’t have the toughness or submission defense of a Jon Fitch, so he’s going to get finished in this fight. If Georges can really get cruising on the ground, he shouldn’t have too much trouble isolating an arm or getting under Koscheck’s neck, and on the feet Koscheck is too open not to get clipped and go down at some point. Koscheck and his backers can talk on and on about his wrestling, but Josh, like so many before him, is going to be relying on catching lightning in a bottle with that proverbial one punch that changes the world. GSP will see it coming and let it pass on by for another night. Georges St. Pierre by submission, round 3.

Sean McCorkle (+135) vs. Stefan Struve (-150)

It’s funny how public perception works. When McCorkle first showed up in the UFC, it was clear that he was a raw lump of clay. He’d never been tested and had never really shown anything that would make an observer think he belonged in the UFC. Shortly after picking up a perfunctory win over a one-dimensional kickboxer who doesn’t have a win to his name in the last five years, McCorkle was no longer a newcomer, and as such his presence was not questioned. In many people’s minds he has been assigned the baseline skills and abilities that all UFC fighters seem to posses, and that is a mistake. The man still has a record full of the kind of people who drop fights to Ken Shamrock, and he still can’t strike or wrestle.

Struve is no world-beater himself. He has huge physical tools, but he can’t seem to avoid letting anyone with some striking acumen crush him in the face and fold him up like a (very tall) umbrella. McCorkle is big enough that a couple shots would probably be enough to seriously hurt Struve, but that would mean McCorkle would probably take the first serious counter-fire of his career from Struve, which could very well be the end of McCorkle in the fight.

McCorkle has always gotten the job done on the ground when he needed to, but he’s going up against someone with a superior ground game for the first time in his career. Struve wants to play kickboxer, but his grappling game is very sneaky good. The sheer length of his limbs surprises even veteran grapplers, letting him create threats that most are not capable of dealing with simple because of their novelty. McCorkle will probably bully him to the ground, but Struve will reverse and catch him in something. Stefan Struve by submission, round 1.

McCorkle is funny, and he is big, yes, but as a fighter he is still far more sizzle than steak. Struve is sloppy and looks bad when he gets knocked out, so his ground game is really being overlooked. He’s a good play at -150.

Jim Miller (+110) vs. Charles Oliveira (-130)

This is stylistically a very bad match for Miller. Miller is a lukewarm wrestler and pretty darn good grappler who has always relied on hard-nosed grit to carry the day in fights. The kind of striking Oliveira showed against Efrain Escudero will absolutely tear apart the hobbity-looking Miller brother, and Oliveira’s slickness on the floor will keep Miller from gaining an advantage there. In fact, it’s questionable whether Miller will even be able to get the takedowns he’ll need to stay competitive in this fight, as Oliveira’s traditionally poor wrestling has greatly improved, and will surely be even better going into this fight.

Miller is a very tough opponent, but he is being set up to lose to Oliveira here and put over the Brazilian in a big way. Charles Oliveira by decision.

Mac Danzig (+250) vs. Joe Stevenson (-295)

These men have some interesting similarities. They’re both TUF champions. They’re both MMA generalists who are strongest in the grappling department but unexceptional everywhere. They’re both fighting to feed their family (although the prolific Stevenson has far more mouths to feed). They both suffer from extremely poor reach, with Stevenson being so short and squat that he can barely extend a punch farther than his barrel chest, and Danzig having a serious case of T-rex arm. Both entered TUF as well-established fighters in the middle of their careers, and failed to develop much in the way of new facets to their game since the show. Both tend to slow down in the third round. Both know that the loser here is probably going to get his walking papers.

Danzig is a gamer, but he just doesn’t have the kind of weapon Stevenson does in his guillotine, or the ability to control a fight like Stevenson can when his wrestling game is on-point. If Stevenson comes out like he did against his last three opponents, he should be able to hustle Danzig on the ground. Danzig is a good grappler, but he has a tendency to get stuck in bad positions, frustrated, and then submitted. The man is no George Sotiropoulous. Joe Stevenson by submission, round 2.

Thiago Alves (-280) vs. John Howard (+245)

Thiago Alves bumped against two titans of the welterweight division in Georges St. Pierre and Jon Fitch, both easily top ten pound-for-pound fighters in the world, and he was found lacking. Now it is time for him to remind everyone why he deserved to fight the very top of the division. John Howard is a big hitter, but Alves has shown a rock-solid chin and is far superior technically. This fight will probably be quite violent, with Alves eventually stopping Howard after a prolonged mauling. Thiago Alves by TKO round 2.

PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC.com)

Mark Bocek (-125) vs. Dustin Hazelett (+105)

Dustin Hazelett returns to the ring against an opponent that is not likely to interrupt his creative grappling stylings with distracting concussions. Bocek is one of the most accomplished grapplers in the division, but really doesn’t bring much else to the table in terms of the assets a high-level fighter needs – striking, conditioning and an overall synthesis of these disparate parts into a complete MMA game. Hazelett is not ready for K-1 Max quite yet, but he does have better standup than his various knockout losses would seem to indicate at first blush. He has natural power in his strikes of a kind that Bocek has never demonstrated. If he can make this into a standup fight, he should have a significant advantage.

Bocek has some of the most persistent takedowns in MMA when he’s at his best, chain-wrestling well until he runs out of gas. If he can take Hazelett down early and often, this could be Hazelett’s ticket out of the UFC. Hazelett doesn’t have the grappling laurels Bocek does, so he won’t be able to catch anything while Bocek is in a dominant position, but Hazelett does have the kind of dynamic, aggressive ground game that can threaten anyone on the planet when he’s given a little room to work. If Bocek wears himself out against Hazelett, Dustin will probably find a way to choke him late in the fight. Dustin Hazelett by submission, round 3.

Joe Doerksen (+215) vs. Dan Miller (-250)

This fight could be really ugly. Dan Miller has been struggling with the kind of personal problems that could destroy anyone’s career, between the death of his first child and the severe illness of his second, and his performances have reflected those struggles, although he did flash a little of the old magic in his guillotine choke of John Salter. Miller is at this point a man that fights not because of an internal drive to be champion, but because that is his profession and he has a lot of bills.

Doerksen has similar motivations, and has been fighting for a paycheck for a long time. His body has been giving out for a long time, and he will collapse under the first serious offense of any kind Miller puts together. The only question is whether Miller can do that before his tank runs completely empty. Dan Miller by submission, round 1.

PRELIMINARY CARD (Untelevised)
Sean Pierson (+240) vs. Matthew Riddle (-285)

Matthew Riddle is developing as a fighter. His progress may have been exaggerated by the extreme fallibility of Demarques Johnson, but his stoppage win in that fight is definitely a sign that Riddle is becoming more comfortable in fights and not just holding on to positions for dear life. Pierson is going to end up on the floor getting hit, and he’s not going to like it. Matthew Riddle by decision.

Jesse Bongfeldt (+145) vs. Rafael Natal (-175)

Jesse Bongfeldt has simply been out of the game for too long to jump right back in against a contender like Natal. I does not bode well that Natal fell flat against Rich Attonito in his UFC debut, meaning that Natal will probably never really have much of a UFC career. Bondfeldt hasn’t shown himself to be significantly better than Natal’s well-rounded game, and the fact that he hasn’t been in action in over a year is serious cause for concern. Someone is probably getting finished here, as both men are strong finishers and tend to get finished in losses. It wouldn’t be shocking if Bongfeldt was able to hurt Natal and polish him off, but Natal will probably be able to take control of the fight in the second round and eventually find a submission. Rafael Natal by submission, round 2.

Ricardo Almeida (-170) vs. T.J. Grant (+155)

These two fighters are grapplers first and foremost, with each man having a little wrestling thrown in as a kicker. T.J. Grant isn’t a bad striker, something that should concern Almeida, who is getting on in years and was rocked badly by a geriatric Matt Hughes.

This could be a real feast for hardcore grappling aficionados, as Almeida’s go-to gameplan is takedowns and technical top control, while Grant has some of the nastier guardwork in the division, with a very active sweep game from butterfly guard. Almeida lives and breathes jiu-jitsu, so he could really turn Grant’s dynamic game into a slow-paced game of inches.

Grant is never going to be a great fighter, but he’s a very solid mid-tier guy. Almeida may be on his way (back) out as a relevant fighter after being submitted for the first time in his career. If Grant can just keep from getting stuck on his back, he should be able to use his youthful dynamism and workable striking to control this fight. It’s all too likely that this ends up being a close, controversial decision. T.J. Grant by decision.

Grant has never really thrilled UFC fans, so he’s very frequently under-valued in the betting lines. Betting Grant here is a play on an early decline for Ricardo Almeida.

Pat Audinwood (-135) vs. John Makdessi (+115)

Pat Audinwood, in very traditional fashion, got a ticket to the UFC by rampaging up and down his regional scene on the East Coast, beating no one of note and losing his UFC debut to Thiago Tavares without putting up much resistance. John Makdessi comes undefeated out of Canada’s regional system, and is more or less exactly where Audinwood was one fight ago, only he’s not being matched up against a proven UFC veteran after his diet of sub-par opposition. This is fight is almost certainly a loser-leaves-town proposition, so the pressure is on.

The win is up for grabs for each man, as is often the case with prospects like this. Audinwood comes from a wrestling background and uses that to try to force submissions onto opponents, with success against the weakest opposition he faced. John Makdessi will not be controlled so easily. Makdessi should be able to control this fight with superior standup and enough wrestling to get by. John Makdessi by decision.

My Plays:
1.5u on Stefan Struve at (-150) to win 1u
1u on TJ Grant at (+155) to win 1.55u