Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Cyborg is the typical Strikeforce card. Elite-level relevant fighters in spots, meaningless celebrities in other spots, a mostly forgettable undercard, and few matches that will have a real impact in the landscape of the sport. Yet somehow, when all this comes together, there are still entertaining fights worth watching. That’s what is really needed at the heart of a promotion, so Strikeforce will soldier on.
Champ Nick Diaz (-350) vs. Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos (+305) (for welterweight title) 
This is a chance for the male Cyborg to fill out his portion of the “his and hers” title belt set. Unfortunately for him, he’s going to have to content himself with polishing his wife’s 145-pound strap while she’s doing press. Diaz is simply a bridge too far, even for the slimmed-down welterweight Cyborg.
Cyborg wins fights in the old school Vale Tudo style. He will take a licking but keep coming (most of the time) and just try to get rough and maul opponents. He’s very mentally strong and hits pretty hard, so he is able to overcome a lot of fighters just by getting in their face and mashing. Of course, sometimes he takes more punishment than he dishes out, resulting in Cyborg owning almost as many TKO losses as he does TKO victories.
Cyborg is a rough and ready fighter, but stylistically he is a horrible matchup against Diaz. Diaz has one of the most tested chins in the business and has a swarming boxing style that brutalizes fighters that rely on toughness more than technical defense. His boxercise antics can lead casual observers to think he has no power, but the fact that Diaz has a finishing rate above 80% tells the truth of the story. Diaz accumulates damage through volume, but when he wants to hurt someone, he can do it. He will out-work Cyborg from the opening bell, coming on stronger as Cyborg’s offense slows down due to accumulated damage. Late in the first round or early in the second, Cyborg will have had enough and will give up the ghost.
Diaz can lose this fight. He has a great chin, but he can be knocked down. Cyborg is a vicious, vicious man, so he can get the kind of swarming stoppage that Jeremy Jackson was able to put together on Diaz early in the Stockton native’s career, especially since Diaz comes out of the gates so slowly at times. Similarly, Diaz does get hit and marked up very frequently, and Cyborg hits hard enough to bust open some of that scar tissue for a potential cut stoppage, although that’s unlikely.
Should the fight hit the floor, Diaz will be able to control Cyborg, punishing him from dominant positions or defending will from his back. Diaz is simply too well-rounded for a brawler like Santos, but this should be a really fun, vicious fight. Nick Diaz by TKO round 2.
Champ Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (-220) vs. Robbie Lawler (+200) (for middleweight title) 
Jacare’s entrée into professional fightsport was a rocky one. He was knocked out by a relatively limp punch from Macacao, who isn’t really known for being a big slugger. That, combined with the way Gegard Mousasi knocked him completely dead, has led to incessant questions about the grappler’s chin. In his last performance, he silenced some of those doubts by holding up quite robustly under non-inconsiderable fire from Tim Kennedy. However, Robbie Lawler can still knock him out easily. Lawler has refined his striking technique, cagily accumulating damage in a brutal fashion rather than falling into predictable and ineffective single-shot headhunting as many natural sluggers do, but he is still someone that can end a fight with one punch. Just ask Melvin Manhoef how long it takes Lawler to change a fight’s momentum.
Lawler is also quite susceptible to falling prey to Jacare’s offensive abilities. He has been submitted in virtually all of his losses, and Jacare is the most pedigreed submission fighter he has ever faced. While Lawler has been tapped by lesser lights, Jacare also hasn’t shown himself to be the kind of finishing threat his grappling laurels would indicate. He is a natural fit for MMA in many levels, with his physical tools and takedown prowess, but he has yet to really show the kind of otherworldly ability to tap anyone at anytime that a Demian Maia owns. He might not need to to catch Lawler out, though. It is risky, but Jacare has shown enough standup acumen that he has a shot of beating Lawler on the feet, especially with Lawler being so extremely vulnerable to leg kicks throughout his career.
This bout will be an excellent measure of how much Jacare has matured as a fighter. His standup skills have improved in leaps and bounds, and that will make it even easier to find takedowns against the imperfect wrestling of Lawler. If he falls into the same trap as King Mo and falls in love with his developing striking, he may have a rude awakening after Lawler shuts the lights off. On the other hand, he has every ability in the world to mix it up with Lawler for brief periods of time, find a way to dump him on his head, and throttle him senseless. As with any fight against a hitter of Lawler’s caliber, it’s a dicey proposition, but Jacare has the skills to pay the bills, and will more than likely emerge victorious. Ronaldo Jacare Souza by submission, round 1.
Lawler will probably lose this fight, but Jacare’s demonstrated willingness to slug it out, the tendency of fighters with recently developed standup skills to become overconfident in them, and Lawler’s one-punch power and vicious finishing ability all point to Lawler having a great chance at the upset. At +200, Lawler is the play.
Herschel Walker (-345) vs. Scott Carson (+300)
Herschel Walker is fighting yet another opponent hand-picked from the dustbin. He will win based on little more than his athletic advantages. Fans should hope this is over quickly so they can see some real MMA. Herschel Walker by TKO round 1.
Roger Gracie (-145) vs. Trevor Prangley (+125)
In MMA discussions there’s “world class” and then there’s World Class. When it comes to Roger Gracie, there’s another category: World’s Best. There is no active grappler with the acumen Gracie does, in or out of the Gi, and his achievements and stature in that field stand alone. Unfortunately his commitment to MMA is questionable at best. Like many BJJ aces before him, he can make an excellent living from pure grappling competition and running a school, so his involvement in MMA seems like little more than a cynical cash grab.
Trevor Prangley is a very solid fighter with a wealth of experience. He’s an elite-level gatekeeper to the stars who will crush any opponent that isn’t ready to go head-to-head with the best in the sport. He’s a wrestling-based all-rounder with no glaring weaknesses, so his best bet in this fight is to try to use his wrestling to stay on the feet and strike with the one-dimensional Gracie.
Unfortunately for Prangley, that isn’t going to be an easy cruise to victory. Gracie may not be much in terms of pure wrestling, but he’s an enormous, if lanky, man with shocking physical strength. He will have a significant reach advantage on Prangley and has show the ability to work a rudimentary jab against shorter opponents. If Prangley is not careful in his attempts to close the distance, Gracie will easily tie him up in a clinch and hunt for trips. Eventually one of these trips will be successful and Gracie will get a chance to go to work on Prangley, which will almost certainly lead to a choke. Roger Gracie by submission, round 1.
At -145 the size advantage of Gracie is being under-valued. This man rips apart gis with his bare hands. He’ll never be an elite MMA competitor, but he’s savvy enough that he’s not going to take fights he’s going to lose.
My Plays:
1.45u on Roger Gracie at (-145) to win 1u
1u on Robbie Lawler at (+200) to win 2u
