UFC 127: Penn vs. Fitch isn’t a fantastic top to bottom card, but it has what all great cards need: some good stories. Fitch and Penn are writing chapters in careers that will one day be regarded as all-time greats. Bisping is searching for validation and acceptance against a journeyman looking for late-career redemption. These are the human sides of the sport that appeal to many fans who want more than just blood and violence, although there will probably be plenty of that on this card.
Jon Fitch (-200) vs. B.J. Penn (+170) 
Hilos favored son takes on the UFC “Break Glass in Case of Fire” back-up welterweight champion. The perpetually-relevant if frequently-defeated BJ Penn is being placed into a do-or-die situation here. He’s not really wanted at lightweight, since he could stomp most contenders but was thoroughly trounced by the champ, and losing this fight would cast doubt on his top-tier status at Wetlerweight too, further solidifying the narrative of a gifted fighter that didn’t beat as many relevant opponents as he could have with the maniacal championship dedication of a GSP.
Fitch is in the middle of another extremely impressive win streak, going 5-0 since his loss as a title challenger, but he’s not particularly close to a title shot. Losing to BJ would set him back several years on the path back to the title, but it would make little difference in the kind of matchups he would get. Fitch is currently destined to continually grind up extremely tough, if under-rated opponents and unless he absolutely decapitates Penn, no outcome here is likely to change that.
This fight is probably going to hinge on wrestling. Fitch’s clear path to victory is the same as always: get takedowns, pound his opponent and assert dominance. Fitch doesn’t have the explosive speed of a GSP, but he has yet to fail to get his man where he wants them. Penn is an amazing grappler, very difficult to take down and harder still to hold down, but he also doesn’t threaten off of his back. His biggest weapons when floord are the ability to get back up and perhaps sweep into back control. Fitch is a consummate grappler in addition to his wrestling chops, so it will be very difficult to get good positions on him unless you can outwrestle him.
Which Penn could conceivably do. Penn is frequently lauded for his amazing ability to stuff takedown attempts, but he is also able to hit takedowns against opponents that are usually difficult to put down. He has the striking to keep opponents off-balance and the split-second timing and natural fighting sense to see and exploit opportunities. If Penn gets on top of Fitch, the former boilermaker isn’t going to be getting up without taking some big risks and escaping from some dangerous positions.
Grappling-wise, it’s almost inconceivable that Fitch tap out Penn, so a ground fight will have to go the full fifteen minutes for Fitch to win, but Fitch is fine with that. Penn is an incredible submission threat once he gets back control, but Fitch has earned a reputation in his gym for being completely impossible to choke. With Fitch’s tight positional game, it’s unlikely Penn will get enough opportunities to hang around on his back to crack his defenses.
On the feet Penn is clearly the more dangerous fighter. He has always been able to crack, and he’s an absolute killer when he sees an opportunity to finish. Penn also has one of the most durable chins in the business, which makes things doubly tough for Fitch who is, again, not known as a finisher or a big hitter. That said, Fitch is not Shinya Aoki. He has very servicable standup, and has bruised up some opponents, even if he didn’t completely starch many. Furthermore, Fitch has a very good chin, and the ability to tie up opponents and shut down their offense when he does get cracked. It wouldn’t be too shocking for Fitch to use his length to keep Penn at bay and win the standing portions as well, but primarily be using that to find takedown opportunities.
When it comes down to it, Fitch is a grinder and Penn is a front-runner. Fitch excels at taking opponents and making them turn their attention from winning and working successful offense to simply surviving and defending. Penn simply excels at blowing out fighters that aren’t as good as he is, which is almost everyone. He doesn’t prepare well for adversity and fighting back from a deficit. The first round is almost always the best round you can get out of Penn, as he’s far more likely to become listless and inactive than come out with renewed fire in later rounds to storm back to victory. Fitch is frequently the opposite, starting slow but snowballing his momentum until he appears to be a juggernaut in the final round.
That kind of slow start could spell disaster against Penn, who, as demonstrated most recently against Hughes, can come out of the gate and hurt opponents very quickly. However, Penn is in for a complete disaster if he lets Fitch get rolling. Penn is very much a quitter in terms of the amount of effort he puts out in fights where he is behind. Desperately needing a knockout to win against Edgar in their second fight, the fifth round was his most passive and unimpressive in the whole fight. The terms for this fight will be dictated in the first round. If Fitch can come out strong quickly, as he did against Thiago Alves, another opponent who is very dangerous from jump street, then he will just cruise against Penn and really put another feather in his cap. Jon Fitch by decision.
Michael Bisping (-325) vs. Jorge Rivera (+275)
Bisping is the better fighter here. Rivera doesn’t have the cardio of today’s elite fighters, he doesn’t have a great chin, and he has a glaring weakness on the ground. Bisping isn’t a perfect fighter, but he doesn’t have those kind of weaknesses. Bisping’s weaknesses are that he doesn’t show much power in his strikes, due to always being on his bicycle instead of planting and his feet and throwing real heat. This wasn’t a problem when Bipsing was fighting complete jobbers and was able to stand right in front of them and throw real power, but against fighters that can hit back, Bisping reverts to a point fighter. Bisping also has a bad habit of moving into opponent’s power, a bad habit for someone that has to rely on his movement, and he reacts badly when that kind of power makes contact with him.
Rivera’s trolljob may have gotten inside Bisping’s head, as Bisping has shown time and again that he has incredibly thin skin towards even good-natured and fair criticism. If Bisping gets hit by Rivera’s power early he could really have issues asserting his will in this fight, just as he did against Wanderlei Silva. Rivera isn’t a superstar caliber fighter, but he can really deliver a workmanlike beating when given the opportunity. On the other hand, it makes Bipsing that much more likely to seriously pursue a finish if he can wobble Rivera. This fight will certainly be emotional. Michael Bisping by TKO round 3.
Dennis Siver (+300) vs. George Sotiropoulos (-345)
Sotiropoulos is a far superior fighter than Siver, with a grappling game that is light-years ahead of the German, but Siver does have a decent shot. He’s not a huge slugger, but Siver has shown some power, especially in his spinning kick, and Sotiropoulos, despite some impressive striking, was completely folded up on the feet by Tom Speer, indicating some fragility that could be exploited by Siver. Virtually the minute Siver’s back hits the floor though, this fight is over. Sotiropoulos by submission, round 1.
Chris Lytle (-275) vs. Brian Ebersole (+215)
Lytle is MMA’s Madonna. Just when you think he’s going to fade into obscurity with the same old thing, he re-invents himself. He went from a boring safe fighter to a balls-out brawler to a dangerous but intelligent boxer with hyper-aggressive submission skills. This should be a really entertaining fight, but Lytle is going to bash him up. Fans should hope that Ebersole’s congenial personality doesn’t bring out Lytle’s mile-wide nice-guy streak and result in a Pat Barry-endorsed bro-hug fest in the ring instead of a real scrap. Ebersole is talented enough to keep it interesting, but Lytle will take another step in his curious career and perhaps actually fight a title contender-level opponent in his next bout. Chris Lytle by decision.
Chris Camozzi (+185) vs. Kyle Noke (-205)
Noke should handily win this. Camozzi has virtually nothing for him, just because Noke is well-rounded enough that he’s superior to Camozzi in every aspect of the game. That’s the fate of being an all-rounder instead of a one-trick pony. Sometimes you just have no answer for someone else’s game. Kyle Noke by submission round 2.
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