This fight is perhaps one of the most anticipated title fights of the year. The outcome of Shogun vs. Jones is going to set the narrative for the UFC’s 205 pound division for the next year. Jones has a huge reach, and he’s managed to cast a shadow big enough to completely obscure Urijah Faber’s continued efforts at 135 even as Faber rapidly moves towards a title shot.
Champ Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (+160) vs. Jon Jones (-185) (for light-heavyweight title) 
A legendary fighter from a legendary gym, still trailing the larger-than-life imagery of Japan’s fabled Pride promotion is set to defend his belt (as an underdog, according to the bookies) against a fighter that has been tabbed for greatness since he awkwardly stepped into the Octagon and began spinning out of control.
Jon Jones’ career ascent has been compared to Shogun’s mythical performance in the 2005 Pride Middleweight Grand Prix, which is giving Jones far too much credit. In 2005, Shogun beat four top-ten fighters in four months, three of them with dominant knockouts. Jones has risen through the ranks as his fame increased, but he had not faced a single top-ten fighter before facing off against Bader, who was himself pretty untested.
This is an extremely competitive matchup. Each man has the skills to threaten or overcome the other, so it will really be educative to see how the fight turns out.
On the feet, Shogun has to have the advantage. Jones has confused opponents with his unorthodox striking, but Shogun is a far more dangerous striker than anyone Jones has beaten. Jones dealt with power punchers in Bader and Hamill, but neither of those men is much more than a slugger with rudimentary technique. Shogun has an extremely versatile attack, and he will be able to go downstairs with leg kicks to keep Jones off balance to set up his power punches and knees. Jones can surprise, but he hasn’t shown much in the way of power on the feet. The only way he seems to be able to really shake an opponent up while standing is to land that spinning elbow spike, which probably will not work on Rua. As he showed against Machida, Rua is very rugged and can come storming through punches in order to land his own return fire. If Jones doesn’t have a lot of pop on his punches, Shogun will be in his face and beating him up.
Of course, Jones has an answer for that. If Shogun is getting in his face, Jones shouldn’t have much trouble dumping him to the mat. Far lesser lights have done so repeatedly, and Jones has shown little difficult taking down some of the sturdiest wrestlers in his division. Shogun is very good in the clinch, but if Jones gets that close to him, Shogun is going to get tripped to the mat or lateral dropped before he can get busy with knees.
What happens on the ground is perhaps the most interesting part of the fight. Shogun has one of the most active and dangerous guards of any fighter at 205, and Jones has perhaps the most destructive ground-and-pound. If Jones can keep Shogun down, it won’t take long for him to lay a serious beating and blow up the champion’s face with his spider-crab arms. On the other hand, Machida is a far superior technical grappler and jiu-jitsu player to Jones, and he couldn’t keep shogun on the ground for more than a few seconds. If Shogun continues to escape that easily from the bottom, he’s going to be a real handful for Jones, who won’t want anything to do with him on the feet. Even if Jones can keep him down, Shogun is going to be a big threat. Jones has preternatural talent, but it still takes experience to become a master grappler. If he leaves his arm hanging around across Shogun’s chest like he did against Brandon Vera, the champ is going to be threatening him with an armbar, and then those long limbs are going to be a disadvantage as they get caught and levered against themselves. Shogun really seemed to profit from his Chute Boxe training with Nino Schembri, so don’t be shocked to see him hit an omoplata sweep to a dominant position against Jones.
It has to be remembered that Jones is a neophyte in this game, and he’s ridden a wave of uninterrupted dominant success. It’s not clear if he’s going to be able to adapt to being out of control in one area of the fight or maintain his composure in a bad situation where he’s getting beat up. Those are things that Shogun has proven he can do, and that Jones has all the skills to force him to do. It wouldn’t be the first time an elite-caliber fighter suffered a meltdown when dominated in one aspect of a fight for the first time.
Much has been made about Shogun’s knee injury and layoff. His joints are certainly not what they used to be, having been shredded and repaired so many times, and the layoff could result in an out-of-shape champion being easy prey for Jones. However, little attention has been paid to the fact that Jones was basically given no rest period after his last fight. It’s not uncommon, even in dominant victories, for a fighter to get dinged up and injured, something a fighter would assuredly try to fight through if given the opportunity of a title shot. There’s also the tricky half-science half-witchcraft art of making sure an athlete is “peaking” at the right time to perform at his best, which could be greatly thrown off by this rapid turnaround. It could be that Jones is the more physically unprepared fighter when these two square off.
This is going to be a very thrilling fight, and it is one that is very likely to have a violent end. Both men are going to be walking along a razor’s edge throughout, but Shogun has proven that he can walk along that razor, whereas Jones has not, so he has a slight edge here. Mauricio Shogun Rua by Knockout, round 3.
Shogun is being undervalued here. Jones is truly a great prospect, but Shogun has proven himself to be elite for a long time now. He is a greater finishing threat, with more paths to victory, so getting him as an underdog is a good price.
Urijah Faber (-430) vs. Eddie Wineland (+330)
Faber is giving a showcase here. Wineland is a good fighter, and will be dangerous for Faber on the feet if Urijah gets out of control and starts throwing no-look leaping elbows, but otherwise he’s simply going to get throttled. Faber is a fantastic example of the concept of a “playmaker” in MMA. He doesn’t have the technical grappling skill of someone like a Rani Yahya, but he’s a much bigger submission threat because he has the awareness of opportunities to throw himself into with lightning speed. Yahya struggled with Mizugaki, incrementally grappling and plying technique against defense.
Faber simply created an opening in a scramble and then throttled Mizugaki until he looked like a day-old corpse.
Wineland doesn’t have the technical skill or composure to avoid that for three rounds. Unless he can really brain Faber with something early, he’s going to end up on the defensive as Faber swarms on him. Urijah Faber by submission, round 1.
Jim Miller (-270) vs. Kamal Shalorus (+215)
Shalorus is a fantastic wrestler with great physical tools that he has leaned on as a crutch in lieu of developing his technical skills. Instead of Shalorus learning to avoid big punches or block them, he relies on his rugged chin. Instead of figuring out how to set up his punches and throw them in combinations, he just throws as hard as he can and hopes his natural power will overcome his opponent’s defenses. On the ground, he uses his strength to try to muscle out of submissions he wasn’t savvy enough to avoid in the first place. These tendencies get Shalorus in big trouble against fighters with solid technical games, like Varner’s boxing or Palaszewski’s kickboxing and guard.
Unfortunately for the “Prince of Persia,” Jim Miller is as solid as they come. As Charles Oliveira learned, Miller isn’t going to be blinded by flashy talents, and will make you pay with his own technical skills. Miller is a better boxer, but he doesn’t have a whole lot of power, so Shalorus could beat him up there if he can get rolling with his haymakers.
Miller is nominally a wrestler, but he seems to end up on his back against other wrestlers, and against someone with the sheer power of Shalorus, he will definitely be working his guard. Shalorus hits hard on the floor, but Miller is quite tough and has the skills to sweep or submit from his back.
This is a fight likely to go to a contentious decision, with Shalorus slowing down in the third round but scoring lots of top position throughout. If Miller still has enough left in the tank in the third, he has a good shot of landing a guillotine or other submission there, but if the fight goes to the judges, he might very well get robbed, despite being more active off his back and achieving more meaningful offense. Everyone knows judges love top position and meaningless haymakers, so long as they come with aggression. Jim Miller by decision.
Betting on Shalorus might pay off, given the poor standards of judging and his likely dominant positions and visible offense.
Nate Marquardt (-300) vs. Dan Miller (+240)
Dan Miller has not looked impressive for a while. He’s coming into this fight on super-short notice, to collect a paycheck, and he’s probably going to get beat up. Marquardt isn’t a fantastic defensive wrestler, but he is good enough to stop Miller’s takedowns. On the feet, Marquardt is a far superior striker and that’s really going to tell the tale against a fighter that was preparing to fight a wrestler and has been out-struck by Demian Maia. Nate Marquardt by TKO round 2.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (+215) vs. Brendan Schaub (-260)
This fight has a decent up-and-comer against a badly shopworn legend. Cro Cop is showing the wear and tear of a lifetime of high-impact combat sports. One cannot expect to smash your foot into targets with the power Crocop has at his command without it falling apart eventually. His reflexes and knees are not what they used to be when he was a stone wall against all takedown attempts, and he can’t fight with the same aggression and killer instinct with a body that cannot be relied upon to fire the finishing shots he came to rely upon.
If Schaub comes in and puts Crocop on his back, this fight will be nasty, brutish, and short. If Schaub keeps it standing, then he’ll probably put a beating on the former Pride fighter, but it will keep Filipovic in the fight. Schaub was nuked by Roy Nelson, and Crocop still has much better boxing than the tubby terror. If Schaub gets careless and lets Crocop put one across his jaw, he’ll be waking up wondering what went wrong.
Crocop is still a tough opponent, busting up Junior dos Santos and Pat Barry even as they were kicking his ass. Schaub’s chin and pain tolerance will be tested if he lets Crocop land this counterfire on him. Brendan Schaub by decision.
My plays:
1u on Kamal Shalorus at (+215) to win 2.15u
1u on Mauricio Rua at (+160) to win 1.6u
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