“I want my shot at the title.” This is a phrase that we hear often in the realm of mixed martial arts. Fighters proclaim that they have the ability to defeat the current champion and should be next in line for the challenge. But in reality, how does an organization decide who the next challenger is? Though no set system has ever been in place, there must be some basis for how matchmakers decide who will be the next fighter to stand across from the champion.
Look at the lightweight division within the Ultimate Fighting Championship. Out of this group of men who fight at 155 pounds it’s easy to pick out more than a few who could be considered contenders for the title once UFC 136 is over. Yet what goes into selecting who is next?
Win streaks are always important in deciding who is next to get a shot at the belt. At one time it would seem that a fighter with a three fight streak would be “next in line” for a shot. However, recent years has seen that number increase to five wins even though that isn’t a hard and fast rule. The ability to continue winning against the competition that is placed in front of you is important to gain the steam needed to be considered a viable contender.
Take Melvin Guillard for example. Guillard is 7-1 during his recent run in the UFC which includes a five fight win streak. On top of that he’s racked up those wins in impressive fashion. This Saturday he’s set to fight against Joe Lauzon and many people are picking him to win the contest. Does a victory at UFC 136 make Guillard the next number-one contender? In my opinion the answer to that question is no. While he does have wins over some strong names in the division including Evan Dunham, Dennis Siver, Gleison Tibau and Jeremy Stephens, I feel that he is one staple win away from getting a shot at the lightweight title.
That brings the conversation to staple wins. In my opinion, a staple win is a victory that every contender needs before being able to make a justified claim as a number one contender. I’ve always defined it as a win over a former division champion or the most recent number one contender. For example, with his win over Anthony Pettis, Clay Guida had a strong shot at being the next man to receive a shot at the title. Pettis was guaranteed a shot due to being the last man to hold the World Extreme Cagefighting lightweight title. Guida is now set to face off against Benson Henderson in the coming months and I see the next number one contender coming from this matchup.
Agree with it or not, marketability does play a role into who receives the big name fights in combat sports. Again, I’ll present an example. Jim Miller was dominating fighters for the better part of 3 years. He has a 9-2 record in the UFC with a seven fight win streak that was recently brought to an end by Henderson at UFC Live 5. Another interesting thing to look at was that Miller was competing on an average of every three months, which is very impressive in today’s MMA community. Even with that resume Miller was still far off from a shot at the belt and I believe marketability or lack thereof was a factor in that. While a great fighter, he wasn’t the most “exciting” in mainstream terms and he didn’t say brazen one-liners such as a Chael Sonnen. Call it what you want, but maybe it does pay off to say the most ridiculous things that come to mind.
Henderson, Guillard, Donald Cerrone, Rafael Dos Anjos, Siver; all of these are viable names to eventually contend for a lightweight title shot. We didn’t even discuss Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez who may leapfrog all of them in the coming months. It’s a confusing situation but a situation that must be handled all the same. I for one am looking forward to see how the UFC handles the contendership question for not just the lightweight division but all their weight classes.
