Set your alarm clock now, because UFC 141 is going to throw many mixed martial arts for a loop. Not only is this event set to occur on a Friday, but it also will feature two of the biggest fighters in MMA, in Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem. With more than 500 pounds of muscle battling in the Octagon, this may be one of the biggest fights, size wise, to go down in history.
In Lesnar and Overeem we have two former champions who look like they can be the main characters from a video game. The name power behind this bout has caused the UFC to declare it a number one contender’s matchup, which will determine the next fighter to challenge UFC heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos. This matchup also features the staple style matchup that we have seen plenty of times in MMA, as a great wrestler in Lesnar faces off against a powerful striker in Overeem.
The critical question in this fight is: Will Lesnar be able to take down Overeem before he can land any shots? Lesnar’s fights against Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez have demonstrated how much being hit in the face bothers Lesnar. Overeem is considered a better striker than both of them, so the longer this bout is contested on the feet, the more you would have to favor Overeem.
At the same time, there isn’t a fighter in the heavyweight division that Lesnar cannot take down. Everyone that has stood across from him in the cage has eventually felt the power of his double leg. Fabricio Werdum was able to take Overeem down when they fought, but Werdum was unable to keep the fight there and attack. Lesnar is much better at smothering an opponent and using that wrestling to take him down.
But what happens when Lesnar is able to take Overeem down? If he can’t finish the bout, his gas tank is going to be in dire straits. While both guys are massive and possibly don’t have the ability to go five rounds, I see Overeem being the more effective fighter the longer the fight goes. Overeem doesn’t have much experience outside of the second round, but the fact that he has had triple the amount of fights as Lesnar will help him be better prepared for the fight. Look for Overeem to win the bout by third round stoppage.
Beyond the main event, UFC 141 has a number of additional fights that look to be exciting.
Nate Diaz and Donald Cerrone looked great in their last bouts. Cerrone has proved that coming over from the WEC would not impede his career, as he has gone 4-0 from February through October. Diaz punished Takanori Gomi in his return to the lightweight division, and showed everyone that 155 is where he should have stayed from the beginning.
I’m expecting this fight to stay on the feet for the duration of three rounds. Both are effective strikers, as Diaz has the better boxing, but Cerrone is more of a well-rounded striker. Cerrone will look to keep the fight on the feet because if the fight hits the floor, Diaz will have a great advantage. A brown belt under Cesar Gracie, the Stockton, California native has shown in previous Octagon outings just how good he is at grabbing ahold of a body part and forcing someone to submit. However, looking at this fight, I think Cerrone will walk away with a 29-28 decision victory.
Jon Fitch will face off against Johny Hendricks in a fight that will help develop the welterweight division for 2012. Fitch is the constant grind out artist in the Octagon, as his style may not win him many fans, but it does win him many fights. Hendricks, a great wrestler, has improved his striking game over the years, but still looks for the takedown first, in order to control where the fight takes place.
A win for Hendricks would be a great career boost right now. This is especially true with Georges St. Pierre on the shelf, and an open title shot expected sometime before he is able to return. Fitch is widely considered the second best welterweight in the division, and a win over him would give Hendricks an accomplishment that only one other fighter in the UFC currently can claim. Despite what is at stake, I believe that Fitch will be able to impose his will, and win another fight in pursuit of that elusive title shot.
Manny Gamburyan, Dong Hyun Kim, Ross Pearson, and Nam Phan will also be featured during this event. Set for December 30th from the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas, UFC 141 is shaping up to be a great card to close out the year.
Alistair may be a better technical striker than Cain or especially Carwin but he's never faced a wrestler as good as Brock, he's also known to not react well to being hit hard, and Brock took punches from Mir just fine while taking him down and neutralizing his BJJ so he probably won't get subbed by the Reem. Both Cain and Carwin were able to land shots on Brock AFTER they stuffed the TD/got up from the TD. I don't think Alistair can do either so barring the quick KO I see Brock pounding him out after a quick TD midway to late in the 1st.
I agree. I'm also taking Lesnar.