Be honest, the UFC’s heavyweight division hasn’t offered up the best fights recently. While they may be the largest guys in the Octagon, the show is normally stolen by the fighters who weigh half as much as the biggest guys in combat sports. However, UFC 143 presents a fight in the heavyweight division that should create some interesting dialogue about that weight class going forward.
Fabricio Werdum versus Roy Nelson features a returning fighter and a former contender looking to get closer to a shot at the heavyweight belt. The fight may not garner the attention that it should from media and fans, but it’s still an important fight for the future of the division.
Werdum at 14-5-1 is known to many people as the man who defeated Fedor Emelianenko back in 2010, but he should be considered much more in the world of MMA. During his career he’s competed against many tough fighters in the heavyweight division, scoring a win over Alistair Overeem, and two wins over former UFC title contender Gabriel Gonzaga. Along the way he has also been defeated by Overeem once, as well as by current UFC title holder Junior dos Santos. There is no questioning that he has fought against the best available fighters within the weight class, and that experience will be very important when he steps into the Octagon once again.
At 16-6, Nelson is a fan favorite among many mainstream and hardcore fight fans. With his mullet and truck driver gut well in view, he goes out and puts on quite the show each time he competes. He’s either dropping his opponent in stunning fashion like he did Brendan Schaub, or putting on a grappling clinic that you wouldn’t expect from a guy his size and shape. We all remember the beating that he took at the hands of Junior dos Santos in 2010, and while he was dominated from start to finish, his ability to keep coming forward was something to admire.
This fight is going to be a close contest in both the standing and grappling areas. On the mat, Werdum holds a distinct advantage. He’s a multiple time grappling champion who has been able to transition those abilities into the world of MMA. An even more interesting fact is that of his 8 submission victories, 5 of these have come using a maneuver that starts while he is on his back, in a defensive position. This plays well against Nelson, who has potent grappling as well, but enjoys competing from the top position. Finding himself in this position against Werdum is dangerous, and can cost him the fight.
On the feet, Nelson has demonstrated the knockout power to quickly end a fight. The overhand punches that he used to drop Schaub and Stefan Struve were on the mark and very powerful. However, dos Santos demonstrated that if you have crisp striking you can disrupt Nelson’s attacks and pressure him around the cage. Werdum isn’t a high level kickboxer, but one shocking revelation during his recent defeat to Overeem during the Strikeforce Grand Prix is that he has the ability to score while on the feet. Werdum’s blows were not enough to rattle the new number one contender to the UFC title, but he did enough to delay Overeem’s attacks, even if he was unable to capitalize. While I do not think he has the power or technique to seriously disrupt Nelson’s attack on the feet, I do think Werdum can score when needed and work to set up a takedown. On the other hand, we’ve seen him get caught and dropped by punches before, and if he is caught with his hands low, Nelson has the power to put him away.
I expect Nelson to push forward throughout the fight, looking for a haymaker finish. Werdum will be able to capitalize and score points on the feet before taking his opponent down to the ground and controlling the fight there. While many others are predicting a submission finish, I do not believe that Nelson will be stopped in this fight, as he has only been finished once in his career. Werdum will secure the unanimous decision victory.
