The injury bug that has run amok on much of the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s roster throughout 2012 may have done the organization a huge favor. While it is never good to see a competitor hurt, the injury to Erik Koch has led to the creation of a bout that many have wanted to see for a long time. The UFC’s current featherweight kingpin, Jose Aldo, will now defend his title at UFC 153 against former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar. This is a battle that has been talked about for the last few years, and finally, fans and experts alike have been given something to get them excited about the sport.
Edgar and Aldo are two individuals that have had exciting fights during their respective runs towards the top. Edgar has played the underdog role, either defeating larger opponents, or giving them hell for 25 action-packed minutes. Aldo, however, has emerged as one of the more dramatic finishers in the sport, as he has knocked out 13 opponents across 21 total victories. Even when he isn’t stopping them in highlight reel fashion, he spends bouts peppering his opponents with shots that make the crowd wince in agnony. This bout has all the makings of the clichés of “fast paced” and “action packed,” but when we look at the numbers on these two fighters, what does that reveal?
First impressions about this matchup suggest that Aldo is the better striker of the two individuals and will have a pronounced advantage on the feet. However, according to Fight Metric – the official stats provider for the UFC – the numbers are closer than one may think. Throughout his bouts under the Zuffa banner, Aldo has landed 3.55 significant strikes per minute in comparison to Edgar’s 3.32. While their landing rate is close, Aldo has shown to be more accurate when landing those blows; his rate is 49 percent, in comparison to Edgar’s 40. These numbers show that Aldo’s ability to land effectively will come into play, especially when considered alongside their striking defense statistics.
Edgar absorbs 2.13 significant strikes per minute, while Aldo is hit only an average of 1.81 times during the same length of time. Edgar’s defense number against strikes is slightly higher than Aldo’s: 72 percent versus 71 percent. We’ve seen Edgar face volume strikers such as BJ Penn and Benson Henderson who use multiple combinations, so that may contribute to the fact that he takes so many shots during fights but that is not a situation he will want to find himself in when he faces a striker of Aldo’s caliber.
What stands out most in this bout is when you compare these individuals’ abilities to land and defend takedowns. Aldo has not tended to use many takedowns in his fights, as he has only landed 0.76 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Edgar, on the other hand, uses his wrestling very well, as he scores 2.73 takedowns in the same clip. He has also been able to take down much bigger fighters at a consistent rate, but his issue has always been holding them down. Aldo is a big featherweight, but he isn’t the size of fighters like Gray Maynard, Sean Sherk, or Matt Veach. If Edgar can get him to the ground, the question will be whether the former lightweight champion can hold Aldo there long enough to do damage or win the round. But getting Aldo down is a difficult task in and of itself. He has a 90 percent takedown defense, and this includes what he has been able to do against prominent wrestlers in Chad Mendes and Urijah Faber, along with a Judo standout in Manny Gamburyan. Aldo’s shown that he can time wrestlers very well, slowing them down with leg kicks, or even setting up the finish with knees. Edgar’s transition game will have to come into play, as he will need to move from striking to wrestling in such a way that Aldo will not be able to time him effectively.
Looking at these stats, it’s easy to see why so many observers are picking Aldo to win this fight. However, there is one factor that must be included in the analysis that Fight Metric doesn’t measure: cardiovascular endurance. We’ve seen multiple times that when Aldo is pushed to the later rounds of a fight he slows down tremendously. He can not succeed if he goes through the same situation when fighting Edgar, whose gas tank allows him to get stronger as the bout progresses. He consistently gives his best performances in the later rounds of fights, and if Aldo allows him to build momentum into the championship rounds, his title reign will be at risk.
The main event of UFC 153 has the potential to be the fight of the year. Regardless of what these numbers say, this isn’t going to be an easy bout for either competitor. Statistics will never be able to tell the whole story, but they do provide an interesting way to look at the fight before it occurs.
