The main event of UFC 165 was a treat that many were not expecting going into the fight. Oddsmakers, fans, and experts alike had Jon Jones as the favorite heading into the contest. But despite being a dominant champion who deserved to be in that position, Jones had to fight harder for this victory than any other in his UFC career. The end result was a very close decision that left some feeling cheated. Looking at the numbers that were collected from the bout, there’s even more to the idea of how close this fight really was.
Jon Jones walked out of the Octagon with his title after a unanimous decision against Alexander Gustafsson was rendered by the judges on hand. The two 48-47 cards were right on with how this fight could have been judged, no matter who was the victor. However, 49-46 was the score that caused outrage amongst viewers ,and is very hard to justify.
Using Fight Metric, who keeps stats for the UFC, here is what can be found that makes this bout so interesting for both competitors:
Going into this bout Jones was accurate on 54 percent of his total strikes, but he went well above that average due to Alexander forcing much of the action on the feet. He was able to land 62 percent of his blows, most of which were to the head and the body of the challenger. Gustafsson wasn’t as effective with attacks to the legs, as he only landed 15, but he landed 99 shots to the champion’s head or body. Even though he was only able to land 38 percent of his total strikes on the night, he left Jones so battered that he ended up being taken to the hospital on a stretcher after the fight.
What was the most captivating number is how well “The Mauler” held off Jones’s wrestling attack, an attack every other opponent had succumbed to in the past. Gustafsson held off 91 percent of the takedowns that came his way. His 87 percent takedown defense wasn’t as highly touted as some of his other attributes going into this fight, but he proved that working with Phil Davis, who defeated him at UFC 112, has paid off dividends.
When breaking down the round-by-round figures, there is a clear picture that is painted in this bout. Even though Gustafsson was more active in the first round, Jones was more accurate with his strikes. What turned that round for the Swedish challenger is the fact that he scored a takedown, to become the first man to ever take the champion off of his feet.
In the second round, Jones was more active and accurate as he landed the cleaner strikes. While he still couldn’t land a takedown of his own, he was able to stuff Gustafsson’s attempts, and was able to stay aggressive for the whole round.
The third round was completely different, as Jones was kept off balance for the entire five minutes. Gustafsson kept him on his heels by mixing up attacks to both his head and body. If this would have been a three round fight, Jones would have lost his title, because the challenger poured it on for the entirety of the third.
However, rounds four and five would prove that the champion’s advantage in fighting five-round battles is still important to consider. Gustafsson had shown signs of slowing down, which gave Jones the opportunity to pick up the pace when it came to being effective with his strikes. The fourth round would be the only frame where Jones would land more strikes to his opponent’s head, closing the round out with a series of knees and elbows that almost finished the fight. He also stayed more aggressive in the takedown department, finally dragging his opponent down in the fifth. What could have sealed the final round for “Bones” were the multiple head kicks that Gustafsson ate, but were unable to answer due to exhaustion. The numbers to support the final outcome are there in this very close championship affair.
If UFC matchmakers jump on the opportunity to create a big rematch, it will be interesting to see where Jones makes adjustments. Right now, Gustafsson has the advantage because his strategy was effective in stopping two parts of the champion’s attack. His boxing was much better as well, as he landed more and cleaner strikes to Jones’s face. The champion is going to have to do a better job of getting the fight to the floor or working his range the next time these two get in the cage. If not, there’s a strong chance he will lose that coveted belt.
Numbers are a big factor in professional sports. Some athletes’ whole jobs are won or lost based on the figures behind their careers. As mixed martial arts continues to grow, the statistical database of fights such as the UFC 165 main event will continue to populate, and tell a deeper story of what occurs in the cage.
• Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson – UFC Light Heavyweight Championship: Jon Jones def. Alexander Gustafsson via unanimous decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46).
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UFC 165: Jones vs. Gustafsson took place on September 21, 2013 at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
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