On Saturday night, The Ultimate Fighter 18 Finale is going to come to fight fans from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. At the top of the card is an important bout for two top-ten-ranked lightweights who both need wins to close out what has been a disappointing 2013 on a somewhat high note. Gray Maynard vs. Nate Diaz isn’t an official trilogy, but it’s the third time these two will meet in combat, and the most important of them all.
They originally met during the fifth season of The Ultimate Fighter, where Nate Diaz submitted Gray Maynard in the semifinals en route to winning that season. They would face off less than three years later at UFC Fight Night 20, where Maynard would edge out a split decision victory over the Stockton native. As they set up to battle this weekend, it’s quite interesting to see that these two individuals haven’t changed much since their days on the show. This fact makes this a hard fight to call.
At first glance, this shapes up to be a fight that pits a wrestler against a Jiu Jitsu player. On the highest levels of competition, where Maynard and Diaz are both positioned, these bouts usually come down to whether the wrestler is able to score takedowns and play the position game well enough to earn a decision victory. However, that narrative doesn’t play into how these two competitors fight once in the Octagon. Their 2010 fight is a likely precursor to how this fight may shape up.
While Maynard does have high-level wrestling and the size and strength to take down most of his fellow 155-pounders, he’s fallen in love with striking and landing power shots. That plays right into Diaz’s game plan of volume striking. According to Fight Metric Diaz landed 77 of 259 total strikes compared to Maynard’s 53 of 154. If Maynard doesn’t come out of the gate with the intention to use his wrestling, then the numbers from this main event will look a lot like their past one. Maynard fell to Diaz’s grappling abilities while they were on the show, so that may keep him from using his best weapons in this bout, tactics that would play to Diaz’s strengths through and through.
With a six-inch reach advantage, Diaz can be expected to pump his jab and use volume boxing against Maynard. Both Frankie Edgar and T.J. Grant proved that Gray can be caught by a fighter that has technical striking skills, and Diaz has some of the best in the division. To win this fight, Maynard will have to employ his wrestling against a fighter whose takedown defense is a meager 45 percent.
The major factor is Maynard’s cardio. He’s shown that he struggles in the later stages of fights. Diaz brothers never tend to slow down, so if this were a five-round affair instead of a three-round one, that would’ve played into Nate’s favor. Now, Diaz has to avoid Maynard’s power early in the fight, and expect to wear his opponent down as the contest continues in search of a decision victory or late stoppage, which favors Maynard.
Nate Diaz and Gray Maynard sit at the top of the finale for the 18th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Once TUF housemates themselves, they are squaring off for the third time in hopes of closing out 2013 on a much more positive note than the rest of the year has been.
• Nate Diaz vs. Gray Maynard
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The Ultimate Fighter 18 Finale is due to take place on November 30, 2013 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Click the stars to rate how good you think the TUF 18 Finale will be.
