Anatomy of An Upset: How TJ Dillashaw Did The Impossible Against Renan Barão

By Raphael Garcia

Even in a month where the upset has become commonplace in mixed martial arts, the world couldn’t help but be shocked at the display from TJ Dillashaw at UFC 173. The Team Alpha Male fighter battered Renan Barão in every aspect of their fight, eventually stopping the former bantamweight champion halfway through the final frame of the main event. Few could have predicted that Dillashaw would dominate Barão so thoroughly. Going into the fight, Barão was riding an undefeated streak that was nearly 10 years long, and in seven fights in the Octagon, he had run through his opposition like one of the pound-for-pound best in the sport. So how was Dillashaw able to consistently beat the longstanding champion to the punch, time and time again? The answer can be found when you look at a number of factors.

First, Dillashaw demonstrated a style of footwork and striking that we had rarely seen from him before this fight. Joe Rogan and a number of other MMA experts watching the fight immediately pointed out that Dillashaw looked more like one of his Team Alpha Male teammate Urijah Faber’s biggest rivals, Dominick Cruz, rather than other fighters within the camp. Dillashaw’s use of lateral movement and frequent directional changes were displayed in flashes in previous fights, but in this contest, that game plan was implemented to the utmost levels to keep Barao guessing.

Those changes played into the second reason that Dillashaw was able to beat Barão to the punch in nearly every exchange — he stayed aggressive in a way that no other opponent had before him. Heading into this fight, none of Barão’s opponents had landed more blows than he. But not only did Dillashaw outstrike the former champion; according to Fight Metric, he more than doubled up the Nova Uniao fighter. Dillashaw landed 140 total strikes during the near 23 minutes of action, compared to just 64 for Barão. Dillashaw’s changes of direction and speed, in addition to his hand misdirection, were enough to catch Barão off guard and open up space for continued barrages. Before this fight, most opponents stood in front of Barão and waited for him to pounce. Dillashaw subverted those tendencies, creating a game plan that worked flawlessly.

Former Team Alpha Male head trainer Duane “Bang” Ludwig had gone on record long before this bout and said that Dillashaw had the tools to unseat Barao as the bantamweight champion. In an interesting development, this fight was to be Ludwig’s last official fight cornering anyone from Team Alpha Male. However, the new champion has stated that he intends to split his time between Team Alpha Male and Bang Muay Thai; obviously there is value in the way “Bang” helped Dillashaw prepare for this bout. However, it’s a value that may come at a cost to the unity of one of the most popular teams in the sport.

T.J. Dillashaw’s performance at UFC 173 proved that there is as much of a need for effective game planning and preparation when it comes to stepping into the cage as there is in any other professional sport. His domination of Renan Barão was the result of tape study and endless drilling of technique as much as it was the result of athleticism and physicality. Those who criticize MMA often point out the ways that it can be more spectacle than sport, but at UFC 173, Dillashaw demonstrated the extent to which achieving greatness isn’t about merely putting on a show in the Octagon, but putting in the work at the gym.