Tonight UFC Fight Night 45 will showcase a very important matchup in the lightweight division. Donald Cerrone and Jim Miller are due to square off in a main event that may not determine a number one contender, but will open a variety of doors for the man who can get his hand raised. This edition of By The Numbers breaks down the two fighters, as well as how the contest between Miller and Cerrone might go down.
There are a number of telling statistics when looking at the Fight Metric breakdown of this pending contest.
Cerrone’s height and length advantage (6’1 and 73 inches as compared to Miller’s 5’8 and 71 inches) will give him a key advantage that should play directly into his striking game. His statistical history shows that he is the more aggressive and accurate striker, as he’s landed 3.81 significant strikes per minute, making contact on 41 percent of his attempts. Miller struggles on the feet, which is exactly where he doesn’t want to be when facing an opponent such as “The Cowboy.” His figures see him landing only 2.54 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of just 36 percent of his attempted strikes. He’s already facing a height disadvantage against Cerrone, and when coupled with his inability to land shots effectively, standing will be a very dangerous position for him in this fight.
The question then turns to what will happen when this fight hits the floor, if it hits the floor at all. One might initially expect Miller to be the more effective wrestler, but the numbers do not tell that story. Cerrone and Miller have a very similar success rate when it comes to landing takedowns: 1.59 per 15 minutes for Cerrone, and 1.98 per 15 minutes for Miller. The key factor is that Cerrone is much better at defending takedowns than Miller has been throughout his UFC career.
Both competitors are well-versed with submission abilities. Cerrone has tapped 15 competitors, while Miller has submitted 14 of his opponents. If Cerrone is taken down and becomes content with staying on his back, that may allow Miller to build up points by maintaining position. While Cerrone has shown the ability to use his grappling to get back to his feet, and while the numbers point to that being his best strategy, there are also times when he’s failed to do so when it mattered most. The question in this fight is whether he will use the smart strategy, rather than let his emotions get the best of him.
These figures all point to a recurring story when looking at the fight between Donald Cerrone and Jim Miller. Cerrone’s length, coupled with his penchant for throwing multiple strikes, should keep Miller on the outside. If frustration sets in and Miller pushes forward, he may not have the ability to take Cerrone, who’s competed against some formidable wrestlers at lightweight, down to the mat, let alone keep him there. Furthermore, isn’t safe to assume that Miller would have the advantage in the grappling aspect of this contest. That all adds up to a difficult contest for one Jim Miller.
No matter the sport, statistics tell an interesting story for the major players at work. Donald Cerrone vs. Jim Miller is an interesting fight that has key issues to speculate on based on their past performances. When breaking down this contest by considering their past numbers, Donald Cerrone looks like the favorite going into the fight. However, the reason that the fighters step into the cage is that anything can happen – regardless of what the numbers tell us.
• Donald Cerrone vs. Jim Miller
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UFC Fight Night 45: Cerrone vs. Miller is due to take place on July 16, 2014 at the Revel Casino Hotel in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
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