MMA By The Numbers: Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Brown

By Raphael Garcia

There are times in which the UFC puts together a fight that gets fans excited the minute it is announced. Such a moment occurred when Matt Brown and Robbie Lawler were booked to face each other in the main event of UFC on Fox 12 in San Jose, California. They’re both guys who stand and throw punches until either their opponents go down, or they do; Brown vs. Lawler is a striker’s affair that brings two comparable athletes together in the cage.

This fight has been branded the number one contender’s match, designed to decide the next man to challenge Johny Hendricks. Lawler was the last man to face “Big Rigg,” and they put up one of the best fights of the year at UFC 171. Brown, on the other hand, is riding a seven-fight win streak during which he has blasted his way to stoppages in six. Fight fans both hardcore and mainstream couldn’t ask for a better pairing to determine the next title challenger in one of the sport’s toughest divisions.

Lawler is a major favorite (-340) heading into his fight against Brown (+180), but while many experts are leaning towards the Ruthless one, this should be a very interesting contest to see how a fighter’s will plays a part in how well they compete. The statistical breakdown of Matt Brown vs. Robbie Lawler shows some interesting trends. Fight Metric’s matchup preview indicates that these two individuals are very similar in their fight statistics. Brown is the higher volume striker, as he has landed 4.13 significant strikes per minute and lands at a 59 percent accuracy rating. Lawler has a lower striker rating (3.41 significant strikes per minute and 43 percent total accuracy), but he makes up for that with a better defensive rating. Lawler absorbs 3.21 strikes per minute, but his defense is rated at 63 percent, higher than Brown’s 57 percent.

Neither one of these athletes are known for attempting and landing takedowns, so this contest should be more of a striking affair. However, what is interesting to note is that Brown hasn’t played the takedown game because he has been able to out-strike most of his opponents during this run. The one opponent that was able to be more effective than Brown on the feet was Stephen Thompson at UFC 145. This caused Brown to change his tactics, scoring five takedowns and battering Thompson on the mat. Erick Silva was another dangerous striker who hurt Brown early in their matchup. “The Immortal” also used a different strategy there and took the Brazilian down five times in that fight as well. This shows that Brown will not be afraid to test Lawler’s 63 percent takedown defense if need be on Saturday night.

Lawler is a much less active fighter, but this is due to him being much more calculated with his strikes. In his second run within the UFC, he has seemed much more patient in his striking. Other than his contest against Hendricks, which was a five-round contest, Lawler has only landed more than 50 significant strikes one time. This occurred against Jake Ellenberger, in a fight which ended in a TKO stoppage in the third round. It will be interesting to see if Lawler will be able to keep up with the pace that Brown has been known to put together during his recent run.

UFC on Fox 12 became one of the more anticipated contests of the year when Brown and Lawler were paired to headline the event. A statistical breakdown shows that this contest is poised to be a striking affair that will be violent from the onset.