Booking Conor McGregor vs. Dennis Siver Instead of Aldo-McGregor Was a Mistake

By Raphael Garcia

For the first time ever, the featherweight division may be the most interesting weight class in MMA. Jose Aldo just passed a staunch test in Chad Mendes at UFC 179, and the division is filled with other interesting challengers. One of those individuals, Conor McGregor, was on hand for the main event this past Saturday. In a few short weeks he went from a probable number-one contender, as stated by UFC President Dana White, to a main event contest against Dennis Siver. While this is a calculated move by the matchmakers within the UFC, it is a serious risk that can come back to harm this moment for the weight class.

Spoiler (noun): a person or team that spoils a predetermined moment in sports.

This is not a new concept in mixed martial arts. Many competitors who seemed to be on the fast track for success in the sport hit serious hurdles when they faced opponents which derailed them. Roger Huerta had his Kenny Florian. Todd Duffie had his Mark Russow. Josh Grispi had his Dustin Poirier. The list of examples will continue to grow because upsets happen in professional sports. At UFC Fight Night 59, Dennis Siver has the opportunity to become a major spoiler on the mixed martial arts scene. He is due to face McGregor on January 18 in Boston. At 22-9, Siver has been considered a fringe contender for most of his time in the UFC. However, his move to 145 pounds has not brought him the same type of success that he saw while at 155 pounds.

That said, he’s still a dangerous opponent that should not be overlooked in any fashion. Although his current popularity will ensure that McGregor goes into this fight as the favorite, Siver can still play the role of spoiler.

And it is because upsets do happen that the UFC should not have taken this chance with McGregor. The decision-makers in the promotion know he has one of the biggest followings in the sport at this time. Fans either love him or hate him, but his presence has proven to draw attention. At a time when the promotion is struggling to find fighters that fans will consistently watch, this was a point for them to flex their promotional strength behind the Irish star.

But if Siver pulls off the upset win, the UFC will lose out on the immediate payday that is Aldo vs. McGregor. Not only will McGregor’s star power take a hit, but because this is a moment for the UFC to turn Aldo into the star champion that the promotion has long desired him to become, there is a substantial risk. The ramifications of losing this fight are dire, especially when the UFC has the chance to gain some much needed momentum going into 2015.

The conversation has to turn to McGregor as well. What does he stand to lose or gain by taking a fight against Siver?

The opportunity for long-term loss clearly outweighs the short-term benefit of this fight. McGregor does gain the opportunity to earn the revenue from taking this bout. Of course he will get his show money, and there is the potential for additional win and bonus funds. He also stands to make a profit from the money he earns from sponsors leading into the fight in Boston. But this isn’t enough money to outweigh the money he could be losing if the fight with Aldo falls through.

An Aldo vs. McGregor title bout is the type of headlining fight that the UFC dreams to offer. Both competitors stand to be well compensated for such placement. If McGregor continues his promotional push the way he has to this point, he can expect the UFC to fairly reward him for his efforts. They have long touted the practice of paying fighters discretionary bonuses for such behavior, and flexing his muscles even more during the leadup to this fight will pay off, not only for that night, but for his long-term career as well. Just ask Chael Sonnen how well his strategy played out for him. The “Gangster from West Linn” stands to be a prominent figure in MMA for an long time to come. “The Notorious” Conor McGregor has the opportunity to build his name up in the same way.

There will be a point when Conor McGregor suffers a loss in the Octagon. Before that time comes, the UFC needs to squeeze him for all the money he can generate. If he takes a loss at UFC Fight Night 59, that will cut into the immediate profits that the organization can gain. That doesn’t mean that McGregor could not build himself back up to the same position, but why take the chance when the money is already for the taking?