Make no bones about it, WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez 2 is going to be a great card. Many observers have speculated as to what makes every WEC event such a special occasion. Is it that lighter weight classes are simply naturally more entertaining? Is it some sort of magic from the Versus Network?
No, the answer is far more prosaic. The simple fact is that the WEC has a large percentage of the best fighters in the world at these weight classes and limited card space with which to use them. This means that virtually every fight on every card is a hot new prospects debut, a title eliminator, or a title fight. With every fight being closely matched, many of them displaying exciting new talent, and every one being highly relevant in an exciting and dynamic division, it’s no shock that this Zuffa product is always a complete joy to watch.
Champ Dominick Cruz (-220) vs. Joseph Benavidez (+200) (for bantamweight title) 
Cruz is a champion in a precarious position. He’s a very talented fighter, but he doesn’t have much experience for a divisional kingpin, and he really has yet to fully grow into his powers as a fighter. Learning on the job is a dangerous way to proceed in MMA.
The most outstanding attribute Cruz brings into the cage is his striking. He stands out because of his awkward movement, moving around in spasms that make him difficult to hit and open up opportunities for him to use his long reach to reach out and hit the short fighters in this division. There are two downsides to this technique, neither of which has become a major issue for Cruz yet. The first is that because he’s constantly in motion, he is almost never in a position to really plant his feet, sit down in his strikes, and put some power into them. He can pepper an opponent and out-land them easily, winning on volume, but except for the rare occasions when he fully commits to a strike, he doesn’t do serious damage. Secondly, although his movement makes him very hard to hit, he is not slipping punches in reaction to an opponent’s offense, so much as offensively moving in random patterns to keep them guessing. Because he doesn’t keep his hands up in a tight guard, this means that when his opponent correctly guesses Cruz’s movement, he will walk right into a strike.
Against Benavidez, who is not a big power puncher, Cruz is unlikely to pay too dearly for getting clipped on occasion, and Cruz’s enormous height and reach advantage will let him successfully pepper Benavidez without too much worry for racking up big damage, while giving him the opportunity to really plant and land hard when he wants it, without much danger of Benavidez closing the distance.
Cruz’s other major weapon is his ability to get takedowns and disrupt an opponent’s timing. Like Georges St. Pierre, Cruz does an excellent job of blending his striking, footwork, and takedowns, to keep opponents constantly off-balance, attempting to defend strikes when he is looking for takedowns and trying to wrestle when he is throwing strikes. This advantage cannot be overestimated, as it opens up a huge gulf on the feet, the kind of thing that drove former champ Brian Bowles into basically giving up out of frustration.
This fight will be a hard one for Benavidez to win. Not much has changed since the last time these two fought, which Cruz won handily. Both have improved, but the style matchup remains the same, with Cruz still having the reach and wrestling to nullify the bulk of Benavidez’s game, and Benavidez still giving up a large amount of size to Cruz. The one thing working in Benavidez’s favor is that Cruz isn’t likely to get him out of the cage quickly, or to pile up enough damage early in the fight to make the last rounds easy, whereas Benavidez has a serious finishing weapon in his guillotine choke. If Benavidez manages to get a takedown on the scramble-happy Cruz, it will be hard to throw down the kind of damage he did to Miguel Torres, but Benavidez latching on to that guillotine is the best chance either man has of finishing the fight. In five round fights, the more dynamic finisher gets a slight advantage, but Cruz has too many other advantages working for him in this fight. Dominick Cruz by decision.
Anthony Pettis (+165) vs. Shane Roller (-170)
Anthony Pettis is a very dangerous fighter. He has a pretty slick ground game and very dangerous striking. He also can’t wrestle. Roller is vulnerable on the feet, having been lamped by Ben Henderson, who is no elite striker. However, Roller is a monster wrestler and has adapted very well to the grappling game. He should have no trouble knocking Pettis over and strangling him.
This is a dangerous fight for both men, as Pettis could knock Roller spark out and Roller could slam-dunk Pettis and completely throttle him. It wouldn’t be a shock for it to go either way because both guys are such big finishing threats, but with Roller’s wrestling, 99% of the fight will be on the floor. Shane Roller by submission round 2.
At -170 Roller represents a solid value. My twitter followers got a slightly worse deal, as the line opened up slightly higher and I took it at -175. No huge loss. Roller’s wrestling advantage should be huge.
Chad Mendes (-300) vs. Cub Swanson (+300)
Chad Mendes is simply going to have his way with Swanson. Swanson has been totally trashed when he’s gone up against top-level fighters, and he has struggled with lower-level fighters, winning some fights he could just as easily have lost. Mendes is a massive talent and it would be a huge upset if he didn’t run through Swanson easily. Expect a guillotine on an overwhelmed Swanson early. Hopefully Swanson’s show money is enough to get some of those horrible tattoos removed. Chad Mendes by submission round 1.
Scott Jorgensen (-215) vs. Brad Pickett (+180)
Scott Jorgensen is going to be champion very soon. He has a wide variety of tools, with power in his hands, some of the best wrestling in the division, and his nasty, nasty front headlock series to set up a dizzying array of fight-ending chokes. He has a significant advantage on Brad Pickett in every area that matters. He’s a better boxer, has more power in his hands, and is a better wrestler. Pickett may be a superior pure grappler when considering his overall floor game, but Jorgensen is more likely to get a submission off that headlock series than Pickett is to find anything. Jorgensen has seemed to slow down late in some of his fights (notably against Mizugaki) but it doesn’t seem likely that Pickett can capitalize on that. Scott Jorgensen by submission round 1.
Zach Micklewright (+215) vs. Bart Palaszewski (-255) 
Palaszewski is the perfect embodiment of the Journeyman. He’s well-rounded enough that he can’t get blown out except by specialists, he’s super-durable, he has enough skills to threaten fighters that are unprepared, and he has a long enough history of fights that he is a completely known commodity.
Palasewski will get tuned up on the feet. He’s not a good enough wrestler to get takedowns. That’s a bad combination. He’ll probably have an advantage on the ground, but he’s not a super threatening submission artist (provided you don’t post your arm up helplessly like Karen Darabedyan).
This should be a close fight, which brings Palaszewski’s Leonard Garcia-like ability to be given the victory by decision in fights he clearly lost into play, but the secret is out on his limitations and his strengths, so it can be expected that Micklewright will come into this bout well-prepared for what Bart can offer. Zach Micklewright by decision.
Micklewright stands a very good chance of winning this fight, and while diligent twitter followers got him at +240, he’s still available at +215, which has great value.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Mackens Semerzier (+190) vs. Javier Vazquez (-205) 
Vazquez is the class of this fight. Semerzier is not ready for elite competition like this. He is a good athlete and has some real submission skills, as showed when he capitalized on a massive brainfart by Wagnney Fabiano to seize a huge upset victory. Unfortunately the way MMA matchmaking works means that when you win in a bit of a fluke, it’s still treated as if you completely dominated the fight, and you’re matched up with similarly talented opponents.
Vazquez is a better wrestler and a much better grappler. He should be all over Semerzier from bell to bell, unless his worn-down knees explode in the middle of the fight. Semerzier has poor in-fight IQ and Vazquez is enough of a veteran to maintain control at all times and capitalize on mistakes. He has a slick enough game to finish, but he can definitely just ride position for a decision if it comes to it. Javier Vazquez by decision.
Maciej Jewtuszko (+425) vs. Anthony Njokuani (-600)
On paper, Njokuani may be in big trouble here. He still has an embryonic ground game, and Jewtuszko has a long string of impressive-sounding submission wins. Surely there’s a good chance the Nigerian striking machine could fall to yet another choke.
Unfortunately, Jewtuszko’s wins have primarily come over complete jobbers in Europe, and he’s woefully unprepared for an athlete like Njokuani. The striking deficit will be enormous, and Njokuani is a massive finishing threat with his power and accuracy. Jewtuszko is simply not ready for this level of competition and will be blown away by a kind of offense he’s never had to deal with before. Anthony Njokuani by KO round 1.
Dave Jansen (+105) vs. Ricardo Lamas (-115)
This is a bad matchup for Jansen. He’ll be at a significant striking disadvantage to Lamas, and he’ll be working against the clock, as he doesn’t have great stamina and staying power. Compounding this, Lamas can control where the fight takes place and its pace, with his wrestling advantage and control of the engagement on the feet. As Jansen wears down and his takedown attempts become more and more desperate, the damage will add up and he’ll probably get evacuated from the cage with a big punch or kick. Ricardo Lamas by TKO round 3.
Lamas is a good bet at -115. Diligent twitter fans would have gotten him at EVEN. He should be able to control the fight throughout.
Bryan Caraway (+150) vs. Fredson Paixao (-175)
This is one of those classic matchups where a one-dimensional fighter faces off against an even better specialist in the same region. Paixao is a world-class grappler that has become a journeyman-level fighter, as he simply can’t adapt his game to the dominant sort of grappling needed to make up for his poor striking and average wrestling. Caraway is slightly more well-rounded, but he also relies on his grappling, and Paixao will not be threatened by his game. On the feet, Paixao will not be overly threatened, as he has a fantastic chin and Caraway isn’t a huge hitter.
Paixao should be able to get takedowns and dominate position, although he hasn’t shown a cutthroat finishing ability in the cage, so a finish will depend on how conservatively Caraway plays bottom. Paixao will likely eventually get a clear opening for a finish as Caraway gets desperate. Fredson Paixao by decision round 2.
Paixao should cruise to victory in this fight. There aren’t a lot of unknowns and he has solid advantages in the areas that will be most relevant. He should be a bigger favorite than -175.
Danny Castillo (-205) vs. Dustin Poirier (+185)
Danny Castillo, the perpetually headbanded Team Alpha Male product, has his back to the wall here; he’s coming off two losses in a row, most recently a brutal stoppage loss to rising ace Anthony Pettis. Castillo has his work cut out for him, as Poirier is a far more offensively dynamic fighter than Castillo.
Castillo will have a big advantage in terms of wrestling, but Poirier is very sharp on the feet, with power in both hands, and has enough skills on the ground to give a serious threat to Castillo. Castillo’s recent tendency to engage on the feet more than he should could work against him here. Ideally he should be working a control game and trying to grind out a win, but with the Alpha Male/Urijah Faber mindset of wild dynamic attacks at all times, he will be leaving constant openings for Poirier to find a finish. This fight could go either way very quickly, but Poirier’s finishing chops give him a slight edge. Dustin Poirier by KO round 1.
Poirier is still available at +185, which holds value. He opened at +211, so people that follow my twitter were able to squeeze some extra value out of the line.
My Plays:
1u on Anthony Poirier at (+211) to win 2.11u
1.8u on Fredson Paixao at (-180) to win 1u
1u on Zach Micklewright at (+240) to win 2.4u
1.75u on Shane Roller at (-175) to win 1u
1u on Ricardo Lamas at (EVEN) to win 1u
