Fight Picks and Predictions for UFC 112: Pray for Rain

By Nicholas Bailey

There’s a lot of things that could go wrong with UFC 112, several of which could be hilarious results for cynical fans. The biggest is the possibility of rain, which could be a complete disaster if there’s no canopy in the scaffolding to keep the cage from turning into a slip and slide. If Anderson Silva gets heel-hooked because he falls over in ankle-deep water, it will be completely ludicrous and perhaps create some conspiracy theories when placed in combination with the Ryo Chonan fight. Secondly the ring girls could offend the more conservative sensibilities of the people of Abu Dhabi. The UAE did, after all, recently sentence some British tourists to prison for kissing in public, and hand holding is officially illegal. The combination of Arianny’s booty shorts and twitter feed may get her a death sentence, although big money organizations like the UFC have a way of getting around laws that get in their way.

Even if the actual fights are contested without major interruptions, fans of chaos would love to see one of the UFC’s “invincible” champions lose a fight, as both champs are in fights where the actual combat is already seen as little more than a formality before incrementing the titleholder’s win total up a notch. If Maia or Edgar somehow manage to do the impossible, it will be very entertaining to watch the chaos unfold and see how quickly fans insist they were never that good anyway.

Champ Anderson Silva (-780) vs. Demian Maia (+580) (for middleweight title)

Demian Maia gets a takedown on Silva. Maia cuts through Silva’s guard and takes advantageous position. Attempting to escape, Silva makes a momentary error, but Maia capitalizes on it to sink in a submission, eliciting a prompt tapout from Anderson. This could actually happen. Maia is very good at getting the fight to the ground by hook or by crook. He lateral dropped Chael Sonnen and he can pull guard directly into a sweep if he has to. Anderson Silva is not a great wrestler. On the ground, Silva has a good guard, but he’s shown defensive liabilities before (being stuck underneath Henderson forever, letting Travis Lutter mount him) and Maia is an absolute killer on the ground.

That said, the outcome that must be expected is Silva absolutely braining Maia. Maia has only recently developed even embryonic standup skills, and Silva is one of the hardest-hitting, most accurate, most creative, and most devastating strikers in the game. On top of all that, Maia isn’t a very durable guy so he’s going to come apart at the seams the minute Silva puts power on him.

So Maia will either shock the world or look like garbage. Similarly, since Maia can only win if he gets Anderson down before Anderson really lands anything, if he wins, he’ll make Anderson look like a paper tiger. This fight won’t go past the first round, and someone is getting hosed. That’s some edge-of-your-seat entertainment. Silva by KO round 1.

This line is set as if Anderson were better in all respects than Maia and had no realistic way to lose aside from some fluke. That is not the case. Silva must be the favorite, but Maia really does have a style that could threaten him. This is a bet that could look really bad in hindsight as Maia is being squeegeed off the ring, but you don’t have to look competitive to have a chance of winning when it’s a style vs. style matchup.

Champ B.J. Penn (-750) vs. Frankie Edgar (+600) (for lightweight title)

For a fight with similar odds to the Maia/Silva matchup, this is a far less competitive affair. BJ is almost completely bulletproof when matched up against anyone else in the division, and Edgar has a particularly poor style to even have a chance at winning.

The big news for Frankie Edgar is that he has improved his striking recently and can mix it up with most of the rest of the division. Unfortunately, most of the rest of the division isn’t very good at striking. Penn is a much better boxer than Edgar, has much more power in his hands, and has a rock-solid coconut head that can take anything Edgar, who is not known for his power, can throw at him.

Perhaps after Penn gets all in Edgar’s personal areas with his jab, Frankie will turn to plan B. Penn’s greatest weakness, such as it is, is being pinned to the ground underneath a superior wrestler that can physically dominate him and avoid his submissions. Edgar is a good wrestler, but if you need a reminder of what division he actually belongs in, watch his fight with Gray Maynard. The guy is a natural featherweight that is talented enough to compete at lightweight, where the paydays are much better. Penn has some of the best takedown defense in the game and will stonewall Edgar’s takedowns and punish him for failing.

With Penn’s grappling advantage being so clear that it doesn’t even merit discussing, Edgar doesn’t really have a realistic way to win this fight. He might stick around longer than Maia and exchange more punches, but Penn will be in the drivers seat this entire fight, whether that means he catches Edgar early and crushes him the way he did Stevenson or Pulver, or slowly works them over the way he did Florian or Sanchez, BJ will win this. BJ Penn by submission round 4.

It’s way too much chalk to bet Penn straight up at -750 for any appreciable potential return, but don’t be shy about including him in parlays, because he’s going to win.

Matt Hughes (-360) vs. Renzo Gracie (+305)

Hughes is on the downslope of his career, but he’s valuable to the UFC and they want him to go out with wins under his belt, thought of as a legend (unlike Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, where Dana White is willing to grind his bones to make Cain Velasquez some bread) so he can be endlessly repackaged as a legend of the Octagon and a Hall of Famer for whatever marketing purposes they need. This means that all his opponents from here on out will be hand-picked to lose to him, Gracie included. This matchup won’t be even remotely competitive, as Gracie has been inactive and has not fought serious opposition in a long, long time. Unless Hughes completely melts down mentally and falls into a submission, he should handle Gracie.

One thing that might be amusing would be if Hughes endlessly hunts for the knockout that has eluded him his entire career. The man really wishes he had big KO power and has frequently said that he really wanted to end fights that way. Against Gracie, Hughes may attempt to put on a show and take advantage of Renzo’s unthreatening standup. Matt Hughes by decision.

Hughes at -360 is some big chalk, but it’s worth it in this case.

Rafael dos Anjos (+135) vs. Terry Etim (-135)

Etim continues to mature as a fighter, although he does still have defensive liabilities. Dos Anjos is most known for his keen grappling, but he hasn’t been able to really make it work for him at the UFC level, aside from the sick-looking calf crusher on Tyson Griffin. Etim will have a big reach advantage and won’t be impressed by the snapping leg kicks dos Anjos has been using recently to such good effect. Etim can win the standup here, and survive on the ground, but the big risk for him is ending up on his back over and over again as dos Anjos takes him down to curry favor with the judges.

This is a close, competitive fight, but Etim’s standup work should be enough to control most of the fight and win on the scorecards. Terry Etim by decision.

Kendall Grove (+160) vs. Mark Munoz (-185)

Kendall Grove is one of the best examples of how massively important a good chin is in MMA. He’s be a borderline top ten fighter with his offensive skills if he didn’t lose consciousness in a stiff breeze. He’s a better striker than Munoz and has better submissions as well, but he’s probably going to lose this because Munoz can crack and is a physical powerhouse.

One of the things that will hurt Grove the most against a stocky wrestler that wants to get inside on him and bust him up after a takedown is the fact that he never uses his height and reach to work on the outside of guys and control his distance. Like Alistair Overeem, his whole goal seems to be to close the distance and give up the reach in his hands in order to use his height to try to knee inside. If he gets inside on Munoz and doesn’t get clipped immediately, he’s going to get thrown down, where Munoz will pound him out as soon as he can put hand to face. Mark Munoz by TKO round 1.

This is a fight where bettors should be very comfortable in betting against Grove’s chin. Munoz isn’t going to black out and throw himself into a submission like Jake Rosholt.

PRELIMINARY CARD

Phil Davis (-500) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (+425)

This is a pretty interesting bout as both fighters are very inexperienced but talented. Davis probably has a higher ceiling, but Gustafsson will bring the realest striking Davis has had to deal with, just as Davis is the first opponent Gustafsson will have that won’t just wilt under pressure and let him physically dominate however he wants.

Davis has explored his striking against strikers in the past, but in low-level fights where he could win on sheer athleticism. Against a big hitter like Stann he went into Dan Severn mode and glued his opponent to the mat. In interviews Davis has sounded more interested in pursuing submissions in this fight, which could be a good path to victory against an opponent that has not been taken into deep waters and has an untested ground game.

It’s likely that if Davis can get on top and stay aggressive that Gustafsson will run out of gas and open up to more punishment or a submission. Davis showed an ability to avoid serious firepower against Brian Stann, so this fight should just be more of the same. Phil Davis by submission, round 3.

That said, -500 is pretty steep for a fighter as inexperienced as Davis. If you must bet this fight, take the +425 on Gustafsson, although I’d advise staying away completely and just seeing how the fight plays out.

John Gunderson (+210) vs. Paul Taylor (-240)

This will be a battle to see who has worse wrestling, as both guys have historically suffered by being trapped underneath opponents. Gunderson because he relies on his top game to find submissions, and Taylor because he’s a nasty striker that struggles at the other phases of the game. With Taylor being able to control the fight on the feet with his lightning-fast strikes, he should force Gunderson into desperation takedown attempts and control the fight in the eyes of the judges. Paul Taylor by decision.

Nick Osipczak (+145) vs. Rick Story (-155)

Rick Story is a bit better than Matt Riddle. Against Riddle Osipczak got taken down repeatedly and either stalled Riddle out for a standup or reversed him. Story will stay active enough to avoid a standup and will not be so easily reversed. Osipczak isn’t a big one-hitter-quitter so he has little chance of turning the tide against a superior wrestler. Rick Story by decision.

Brad Blackburn (-160) vs. DaMarques Johnson (+140)

Remember how DaMarques Johnson got absolutely splattered by the mediocre James Wilks? Or how Edgar Garcia almost did the same thing until he totally threw himself into a submission? Blackburn, provided the fight doesn’t reach the third round, should do the same thing. He’s an explosive hitter and will find ways to punish DaMarques’s defensive liabilities. Although Blackburn is a bit of a flake and completely comes apart after the ten minute mark, if not sooner, that’s more than enough time to wrap Johnson up and get him out of there. Blackburn by KO round 1.

Paul Kelly (+250) vs. Matt Veach (-271)

Kelly has a problem dealing with guys that can deal with his wrestling and threaten him on the feet. That’s what kind of guy Veach is. Matt Veach by decision.

Mostapha Al Turk (+245) vs. Jon Madsen (-250)

Madsen is a big fat guy that is okay at fighting. Al-Turk is a big strong guy that’s not very good at fighting. Madsen is a far superior wrestler and also has some power in his hands. Al-Turk is useless off his back and not a great striker or very durable. Madsen can wrap this up pretty quickly and bounce Al-Turk out of the cage, delaying the day that Madsen himself is unceremoniously dropped from the UFC roster. Jon Madsen by KO round 1.

My Plays

3.6u on Matt Hughes at (-360) to win 1u
.5u on Demian Maia at (+580) to win 2.9u
1.85u on Mark Munoz at (-185) to win 1u