Fight Picks and Predictions for WEC 44: Lightning in a Bottle

By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)

The WEC promotion is putting on another fabulous fight consisting of massively underpaid divisional elite fighters on a network with very little visibility. It’s the kind of thing that harkens back to the UFC of many years ago.

Unusually, WEC 44 is not ultra-stacked, consisting primarily of fighters trying to work into contention, debut in the organization, or bounce back, rather than the top-to-bottom top-ten fighters WEC fans have been spoiled with recently. However, the main event is simply one of the most appealing fights of the year, so serious fight fans must tune in, even if the undercard were to feature Butterbean vs. DMX.

Champ Mike Brown (-117) vs. Jose Aldo (EVEN) (for WEC featherweight title)

Mike Brown will attempt to put a stop to the trials and tribulations faced by other WEC titleholders recently, but he is not going to be helped by the fact that his opponent is the caged electricity that is Jose Aldo.

Brown is a 145-lb juggernaut, moving ploddingly into and through all opponents, using his size, strength, and grappling talent to flatten out those he couldn’t fell with massive punches. Jose Aldo, who could fight at 135lbs without undue fuss, is a very different style of fighter, moving around until, like the human lightning strike that he is, he inflicts an insane amount of damage in the flash of an eye and stands victorious. The speed vs. strength interplay of this fight should be very entertaining.

When it comes down to it, if Mike Brown can get his hands on Aldo, he’ll be able to control him and put him down for some rough treatment. Aldo has a black belt, but he won’t be getting out from underneath a tank like Brown, so survival will depend on toughness, cardio, and a defensive guard. On the other hand, Brown, while a tough customer, cannot let Aldo land offense on the feet, because the much younger man’s sudden viciousness and finishing ability cannot be overstated.

Brown fans should be very concerned in this fight, given how frequently Brown stood directly in front of Urijah Faber and got hit square in the face. Faber is an excellent fighter, but he’s not a big hitter, and those same antics will get Brown dropped. This fight could easily go either way, with hair-splitting differences spelling the difference between winning and losing. It’s certainly possible we see Brown taking Aldo down and pounding on him, with Aldo’s speed advantage and the explosion in his fists deteriorating as fatigue and punishment accumulates. However, with Brown being a good deal slower and fairly hittable, Aldo catching him with something, wilding out, and not relenting until the ref stops him (if then) is the most likely result. Jose Aldo by KO, round 1.

I think that Aldo should be favored to win this, so he makes a good play at even odds, however with a fighter the caliber of Brown, there is a lot of variability so don’t go overboard.

Manny Gamburyan (-110) vs. Leonard Garcia (-110)

Both fighters are known more for their failures than their strengths. Gamburyan for being approximately five feet tall and having a shoulder made of rubber cement, and Garcia for fighting with absolutely no gameplan and throwing nothing but wildly inaccurate haymakers. Gamburyan will look to take Garcia down and get work in for three rounds, while Garcia will look to play tee-ball with his opponent’s head, as always.

Gamburyan is a solid fighter, but he does have weaknesses that play into Garcia’s game. He’s short even for featherweight, with stubby limbs that compound the fact that he’s not a good striker in the first place, and he has an average chin (all of which played into him suffering a pillow-fight knockout at the hands of Rob Emerson). Furthermore, despite his judo background and pressing need to take every fight to the ground, his takedowns are only so-so.

Fortunately for Manny, Garcia’s takedown defense is worse than so-so, so if he can get inside without getting clipped, Gamburyan can probably get the takedown and a chance to work on top. Garcia has a good defensive guard and is very difficult to hurt or submit, so the dynamic of this fight will be Gamburyan trying for takedowns and to win rounds on control, with Garcia looking for an opportunity to tap his chin and end the fight inside the distance. With Garcia’s power and Manny’s standup deficiencies, he’ll eventually find a home for the right hand and crumple Gamburyan up into a little ball. Leonard Garcia by KO round 1.

Garcia’s odds have been bouncing around. I don’t like him below even, due to his poor takedown defense and the fact that he could have been gotten much higher. Keep an eye on the line and if he moves into positive territory again, take him for a small play.

Karen Darabedyan (+125) vs. Rob McCullough (-145)

Rob McCullough is still milking his reputation as an exciting striker, built on some legitimately exciting striking displays, but rightfully dead at this point. It’s clear now that Rob is not an elite striker, more of a slugger than anything else, and certainly not exciting when he’s fighting an opponent that wants to take him down, which causes him to shift into a mode where he runs away and tries to win rounds on points with his leg kicks. This works against short fighters that are hopeless strikers (Marcus Hicks) and he can still put on a good show when he fights someone with no defense that likes to just throw down (Donald Cerrone) but against someone that can dominate him with wrestling and has the chops to set takedowns up with clean striking, he’s going to fall flat again. Karen will have trouble putting Rob away, especially once it’s clear who is wearing the pants in the fight and McCullough gets on his bicycle, so expect a drawn-out decision here. Karen Darabedyan by decision.

Karen is a good underdog here, but again, high variance (Rob’s punching power) so only a limited play.

Danny Castillo (-145) vs. Shane Roller (+115)

Roller is looking to continue up the comeback trail after bouncing back from the Henderson knockout with a narrow decision over Marcus Hicks. He will unfortunately run into a surging Danny Castillo, coming off an impressive knockout win. Roller’s bread and butter is his wrestling, but Castillo can deal with wrestlers and Roller is too prone to getting clipped to deal with someone with the kind of power Castillo has. Danny Castillo by TKO round 2.

PRELIMINARY CARD (un-aired)

Will Kerr (+147) vs. Kamal Shalorus (-165)

Kamal is a highly-touted wrestler looking to make a big impact here, so expect him to control Kerr for a decision. Keep an eye on this fight because Kamal, while old, is a good prospect. Kamal Shalorus by decision.

L.C. Davis (+140) vs. Diego Nunes (-160)

Davis was a hyped wrestling prospect, but the luster has come off his star a bit following his loss to Omigawa, where he was out-positioned and generally failed to control the fight as a wrestler should against a fighter that’s not known for his positional grappling. Some talented athletes can just never develop certain athletic skills, so it’s possible Davis has already peaked. Either way, Nunes should be able to control this fight from bell to bell with his wrestling and well-rounded skills, especially on the feet, perhaps setting up a fight for the unbeaten fighter on the main card of the next WEC. Diego Nunes by decision.

Nunes is being undervalued here, so he’s a good play.

John Franchi (+260) vs. Cub Swanson (-285)

Swanson is a talented fighter that only has a few losses, but has shown a tendency to get absolutely exploded when he loses, being mugged embarrassingly by Jens Pulver and then mauled by Jose Aldo. Franchi is not the kind of fighter that can cause such a detonation, so expect Swanson to simply hustle him and drive a pace he can’t keep up with en route to a clear decision. Cub Swanson by decision.

Antonio Banuelos (-205) vs. Kenji Osawa (+190)

Banuelos is a well-rounded fighter whose primary style relies on takedowns and hustle offense to wear down his opponent. Unfortunately for him, he also doesn’t have particularly strong cardio, which mixes badly with a work-heavy and finish-averse style. Takedowns are Osawa’s bane, as his only outstanding skill is his technically sound striking. However, I think Osawa’s hands will make Banuelos uncomfortable on the feet and force him to work more than he’d like, wearing him out early and letting Osawa rack up damage for the decision. Kenji Osawa by decision.

This is the kind of fight with a lot of unknowns, so I’m only making a small play.

James Krause (+208) vs. Ricardo Lamas (-230)

Krause and Lamas both suffered severe shellackings in their last outings, but the fights leading up to those finishes were two different stories. Against Cerrone, Krause looked like a talented but very green fighter that was massively overmatched and moments away from the eventual beating. Lamas, in his fight with Danny Castillo looked very solid, although Castillo’s solid defensive wrestling did give him trouble, and Castillo’s power eventually caught him out and finished him off.

The weakest part of Krause’s game right now is his takedown defense, and that plays right into Lamas’ hands. Lamas will get takedowns at will and work top control for a one-sided decision win. Ricardo Lamas by decision.

1u on Jose Aldo at (EVEN) to win 1u
1.1u on Leonard Garcia at (-110) to win 1u
1u on Karen Darabedyan at (+125) to win 1.25u
1.6u on Diego Nunes at (-160) to win 1u
.5u on Kenji Osawa at (+190) to win .95u