By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
UFC 105 is not the most sparkling card Zuffa has ever put together, which should come as no shock since Zuffa’s revenue-sharing contracts with their big stars heavily disincentivize them from taking part in the weak-selling foreign cards, so UK cards are frequently thin on star power.
While there are only a few fights that don’t feature TUF alumni or similar-caliber fighters, the three top bouts on the main card are interesting and should provide serious fight fans with some good action and divisional relevance.
Randy Couture (-120) vs. Brandon Vera (-105)
Two fighters at a crossroads meet in the main event here. Randy Couture, perennially a top contender in whatever division he chose to compete in, is desperately trying to hold on to whatever magic allows a 46 year old to be an elite cagefighter. Brandon Vera, marked from early in his career as a fighter with championship potential, must impress again to regain some of his lost luster.
Vera is coming off a technical dominance of vowel-hating Krzysztof Soszynski, where he avoided the Polish powerhouse’s hands and scored on him at will, without doing a lot of damage to the tough Soszynski. It was a fight that let Vera demonstrate his best skill: working at range with a wide arsenal of strikes and making it a battle of technique and skill instead of going punch-for-punch.
Punch-for-punch is exactly what happened with Couture faced off with Nogueira, and Couture was found lacking. Nogueira is a terrible style matchup for Couture, with the grappling to make his takedown game impotent, and the boxing and reach to make Couture’s back-up plan of slugging it out a challenge. Couture, despite being so old he should be partially fossilized, looked athletically not to have lost a step against Nogueira, moving quickly, showing strength, and having gas for three hard rounds. However, it does seem that the old man’s chin is starting to weaken, as Nogueira, who is far from a knockout hitter, sent him to the mat very awkwardly twice, with Couture toppling over like he was made of wood.
Much has been of Vera’s impressive wrestling background coming in to this fight, but that pedigree isn’t likely to measure up to the level Couture brings to the cage. The difference can clearly be seen against their shared opponent, Tim Sylvia. While Sylvia was able to dominate and control Vera in the clinch, Couture repeatedly dragged the bigger man to the mat and punished him. If Couture can get his hands on Vera, he should be able to dictate where the fight takes place.
However, it will be difficult for Couture to decide where he has an advantage. Standing, Vera can pick him apart, and Couture’s tendency to try to swarm with punches to close the distance plays right into Vera’s excellent counter left hand, which may be enough to crack Randy’s chin. In the clinch, while Randy has a wrestling advantage, Vera can do excellent damage with his knees and elbows, which may stifle Couture’s dirty boxing. On the ground, Vera can be dangerous and has an impressive grappling pedigree. One notable takeaway from the Nogueira fight is that Couture showed that he is still not much of a jiu-jitsu player. Nog’s ground skill is beyond question, but Couture still got hit with submissions and sweeps with an embarrassing frequency.
So then, this is an awkward fight for Couture. His specialty is controlling the location of the battle, but he will be hard-pressed to find a good place for it. On the feet at range, Vera’s reach and height will give him fits, especially with Vera’s excellent kicking game. As Randy closes the distance, he can look forward to clean and crisp counters coming his way. In the clinch, Vera will be no slouch and will continue to inflict damage. On top of Vera, he must be constantly on the alert for sweeps and submissions.
Vera is notoriously a flake, often failing to capitalize and being insufficiently aggressive, and Couture’s wrestling does mean ground control is a possible route to victory. However, there are just too many ways for him to get hit, and his old chin isn’t up for it. Brandon Vera by TKO round 2.
I think Vera should be favored here, so he’s a good play at these close odds, but due to his inconsistent performances, proper bet sizing is a must.
Dan Hardy (+190) vs. Mike Swick (-225)
Neither one of these men is in any way ready for Georges St. Pierre. In fact, I don’t think either will ever be ready, as he’s a terrible style matchup for both of them. Nevertheless, they will meet for the opportunity to try to join Thiago Alves and Jon Fitch in the “I worked my ass off for a title shot and all I got was this severe beating” club.
Mike Swick is best known for his handspeed. He has a wonderful combination of long arms, height, hand speed, and natural punching power that combine to produce great (and of course quick) finishes. However, his striking game beyond these natural gifts isn’t particularly well developed. He has good timing and of course, quick, long, and hard punches, but he doesn’t throw in varied combinations or display the other hallmarks of a high-level striker. He simply explodes forward at opportune times and does a good job of finishing if he manages to hurt someone.
Hardy is a bit the opposite. His crushing knockout on the knockout-prone Rory Markham aside, he doesn’t have a huge amount of power in his hands, but relies on his excellent counter-striking skills and varied repertoire of strikes to get the job done. His strong ability to hit equally well while moving forward or backwards has served Hardy well so far in his UFC career, and will make Swick hesitant to simply wild out with looping shots, as he is wont to do.
Traditionally, when faced with fighters that can handle his heat and throw back (David Loiseau and Marcus Davis, for example) Swick will clinch and look for takedowns. Swick in the clinch is an interesting phenomenon. Though on occasion he throws a good strike or exhibits some good control, he seems to be ineffective and lazy in the clinch when he’s not going for a takedown immediately. While his overall wrestling is sub-par, Swick does get takedowns from the clinch fairly well when he works for them, which could spell trouble for Hardy.
Hardy should be the bigger man as, while not enormous, he does cut a good deal of weight to 170 and is a pretty physically strong guy, something Swick is not. Despite moving down to his more ‘natural’ weight class of 170lbs, Swick still doesn’t seem particularly large, and looks enervated even on fight night. Making things worse for Swick, Hardy has been diligently improving his wrestling and has always worked well in striking from the clinch with knees and in-line elbows.
However, Swick is not doomed to engage with the superior striker. He does have the ability to take Hardy down and to control him and do work from on top. Hardy’s wrestling and grappling still lag far behind his striking, despite his hard work to bring them up to speed. Swick is no Demian Maia, but he does have the skills to do work on the ground and pick up rounds. He’s shown before that when that’s the smart fight, he’ll do his darndest to fight it. Hardy doesn’t have the skills to threaten off his back, but he can probably survive Swick’s offense and get some standups.
This fight will come down to Swick’s takedowns from the clinch. If he can get them regularly he should pick up a hard-fought decision. If he has to struggle for each one, as I expect will be the case, the fight could easily go either way. If Hardy has made a quantum leap in his takedown defense and can stonewall Swick, he will bust ‘Quick’ up badly and take a dominant decision win.
The most likely outcome here is Swick edging Hardy out in 2 out of the 3 rounds with takedowns and top control, losing one where he struggles to close the distance, drag Hardy down, and keep him there. This will be a hard-fought fight and minor mistakes could alter the final scoring, as giving up a takedown in the first minute of a round will be scored very differently if the first takedown comes late in the round. The most likely outcome is Mike Swick by decision.
At +190 there is value in Hardy. He is an intelligent fighter that does a good job of preparing for fights and leveraging his abilities. I’m expecting a thin decision either way, so it could easily go to Hardy if he scores some impressive strikes.
Michael Bisping (EVEN) vs. Denis Kang (-125)
Call them the odd couple. Kang has A+ offense in all areas, but is a serious flake that often finds ways to throw away a fight. Bisping’s bread and butter is supposed to be his kickboxing, but he couldn’t bust a grape, so he has to stay away from other fighter’s power and sneak a kickboxing match in on them, rather than making anyone wary of his strikes.
Kang can bang it out with Bisping, as he’s a hard slugger, which has given Bisping lots of trouble in the past, although Bisping’s chin is, in fact, pretty good, with the Henderson knockout coming from one of the most preposterous full-windup, throw-your-whole-body-into-it, should-have-seen-it-coming haymakers of all time, and it being unlikely that Kang attempts something so ludicrous, let alone lands it. Still, Kang does have the power to back Bisping up, and he’s insulated from his own foibles by the fact that Bisping can’t hit back hard enough to knock him out or make him doubt himself and crap out mentally.
Bisping’s weakest area has always been his wrestling, and Kang has an excellent shot, which he times well and sets up using his striking, letting him take dominant position on fighters and go to work chipping away with some ground and pound. Bisping has a pretty good defensive guard, but he won’t be able to threaten Kang, so he’s probably going to get held down for three rounds. Dennis Kang by decision.
With Kang at respectable odds here, he represents a good play.
Matt Brown (-155) vs. James Wilks (+138)
Wilks isn’t ready for this. Brown isn’t great, but he’s become a very solid fighter, and you have to respect the power he has after what he did to the usually-tough Pete Sell. Wilks has fought a weak schedule and squeaked by, whereas Brown has had to improve massively to get by some pretty decent fighters. Brown will not fold up like Demarques Johnson, so Wilks won’t be able to handle him. Matt Brown by TKO round 1.
Ross Pearson (+165) vs. Aaron Riley (-200)
This fight depends on how worn down Aaron Riley is. The man is a consummate veteran, but he’s also taken the kind of abuse reserved for that sort of MMA pioneer, having been bashed up and down the cage of the course of his 40+ fight career, and he is definitely in the process of falling apart from all that accumulated damage.
However, Pearson doesn’t have a lot of outstanding offensive firepower, primarily relying on his submission game to finish fights, and he will be hard pressed to catch even a deteriorated Aaron Riley in a submission, and Riley has the grit to go toe-to-toe with him should he choose. It’s a coin flip whether or not Riley is too shot to compete here, but if the flip goes his way, he can outlast Pearson and wear him down for a pretty boring decision. Aaron Riley by decision.
Terry Etim (-325) vs. Shannon Gugerty (+300)
Etim just has too much offense for Gugerty to begin to compete here. Etim’s primary advantage over Gugerty is his reach and technically clean striking, but he does have a very aggressive leglock game should the fight go to the ground. Terry Etim by KO round 1.
John Hathaway (-250) vs. Paul Taylor (+210)
At first blush, this is a fight with a single possible outcome: Taylor doesn’t have much of an aptitude for grappling, despite his efforts to improve, and Hathaway has good takedowns and is very aggressive with them.
Compounding this, however, is the fact that Taylor does have pretty decent escapes, and Hathaway has a terrible control game, taking opponents down only to have them escape to their feet yet again. Thus, this fight could quickly devolve into a sloppy scramblefest as the never-ending energy of Taylor tries to escape from the continuous takedowns of Hathaway.
Taylor has very real skills on the feet and his gas never runs out, so if Hathaway slows down, he could get chewed up badly. However, Taylor’s grappling liabilities are too much, and he’s likely in for a long night of being roughed up on his back and repeatedly taken down. John Hathaway by decision
Nick Osipczak (+265) vs. Matthew Riddle (-300)
Riddle may be too dumb to get a driver’s license or move out of his mom’s house, but he’s big and can wrestle. If Dan Cramer can ring his bell, Osipczak could hit him hard and knock him over into a TKO or a submission, but this fight will be 15 minutes of Riddle getting on top and Osipczak’s freakishly long legs flailing around trying to play rubber guard or some other foolishness that won’t work for him. Matthew Riddle by decision.
Paul Kelly (-320) vs. Dennis Siver (+300)
Siver is a pretty good fighter, but Kelly is a legitimately good one. Kelly simply rolls him here, working him over until he gets tired and gives up a submission. Paul Kelly by submission.
Roli Delgado (+325) vs. Andre Winner (-325)
Andre Winner has legitimate striking skills, something that will always give Delgado trouble, despite his extreme reach. Delgado’s one hope is his often-surprising ability to take the back, although Winner is not helpless when it comes to submissions. The Crazy Cuban loses this one and takes some punishment in the process. Andre Winner by TKO round 2.
my plays:
Brandon Vera: 2.1u at (-105) to win 2u
Denis Kang: 1.25u at (-125) to win 1u
Dan Hardy: .5u at (+190) to win .95u
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