UFC 101 Picks and Predictions: Sons of Mercury

By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)

UFC 101 brings Zuffa’s baby to the fighting city of Philadelphia, where the orange people from the shore meet the tough kids from the city to get drunk and brawl in the stands. With most fight fans still in a UFC 100 hangover mode, exacerbated by some Japanese MMA, it’s flown quite low under the radar, despite having a number of interesting (BJ vs. Kenflo) and bizarre (Silva vs. Griffin) matchups.

There’s only one official title on the line, but the meta-narrative is the competition between BJ Penn and Anderson Silva to determine which is the most unreliable and mercurial champion. Fans know that BJ probably can’t stand someone else squandering even more talent than he has in the past, while Anderson probably doesn’t even know BJ exists, sitting in his fortress of solitude, practicing thigh stomps and foot punches, while watching old Roy Jones Junior highlight reels.

B.J. Penn (-230) vs. Kenny Florian (+210) (for UFC lightweight title)

How unlikely is it to see Florian taking his second title shot? The guy’s geeky looks belie real athletic talent, although the much more popular storyline is that he, despite having no athletic talent, gets by on hard work and grit. As Florian was on an NCAA Division I soccer team, this story, just as in the case of Forrest Griffin and Jon Fitch, is completely false and some bizarre continuation of the Larry Bird mythology. BJ Penn is BJ Penn, the mercurial and outspoken Hawaiian of unsurpassed talent who supposedly never works hard enough. At this point, that story is likely also false, as Penn is a very prideful person and knows that he can’t coast by anymore, not after GSP put him in his place in their first fight. Still, that will be the story presented.

The real story, as it so often is in MMA, is far more granular and subtle. Florian, despite playing the role of the upstart kid challenging the established veteran, is three years older than Penn. Both of them are phenomenally talented, with natural ability for both jiu-jitsu and striking. While Penn is a clear favorite, it is a difference of degrees. He has a better chin, more power, and better wrestling.

On the feet, it will be Penn’s jab against Florian’s kicks. Penn has really refined a beautiful boxer’s style with a flicker jab that makes excellent use of his natural power, although he only takes his feet off the ground to throw knees, so he’s a not as dynamic or rangy as Kenny. Kenny doesn’t punch hard at all. In fact, fighters only seem to be affected by his hands when he’s throwing them on the ground. However, he has perfect technique on his thai low and mid kicks, and makes excellent use of them. That won’t be enough to stop Penn, but if Florian can make them work for him, he could be able to work Penn over from outside punching range and score points, possibly winning rounds. Penn has a coconut head, so unless Kenny lands the most blindingly perfect strike of his entire career, he’s not going to be able to hurt BJ or stop him. Even Kenny’s tendency to slice opponents open will be reduced, as BJ has little scar tissue and has proven very resistant to cuts in the past. Kenny is a pretty durable guy, but he’s been beat up and overwhelmed before, and BJ has serious power, so any slip-up from Florian could be the end of the fight.

The greatest disparity in this fight is in the wrestling department. Florian has assiduously improved his strength and takedowns, as he showed in his complete physical and positional domination of Huerta and Stevenson. However, BJ is a very natural talent for wrestling, and will stop anything short of a GSP shot combining technical perfection and raw physical power. BJ, although he has rarely shown it, is also capable of being a dominant offensive wrestler, most notably when he crushed a helpless Takanori Gomi (no poor wrestler himself) with an endless string of monster double legs. If BJ wants a smart, low-risk path to victory, putting Florian on his back and getting work in is his best option.

That’s not to say Penn will have an easy time of it on the mat with Florian. While BJ’s grappling achievements are impressive, they occurred almost a decade ago, and he will struggle to take the back and choke out someone with as fundamentally tight a game as Florian. Similarly, even if he somehow lands a trip and gets on top of Penn, Florian stands virtually no chance of following his usual path of advancing to mount and throwing down punishment against BJ, so unless one fighter is significantly worn down, the most that can be expected is a stalemate on the ground or simple control.

Thus Kenny Florian has a shot at winning this fight outside of the usual fluke cuts and injuries, but he will have to be perfect to do so, and BJ can win even with a decidedly imperfect performance. Simply put, BJ risks losing rounds to Florian’s kicks, but Florian risks getting knocked out any time he lets BJ put hands on him, or choked out if he makes an error and lets BJ take his back in a scramble. BJ’s inconsistency and lax training is overblown at this point, so I don’t expect him to look significantly different than he did against GSP, although the results will be quite different. BJ Penn by decision.

Florian is a tough guy, but if he can’t win one of the first three rounds, this fight is gone for him. That said, after continuously underestimating Kenny, I really have faith in his kickboxing skills, and I think he does have a realistic way to win. I don’t like him at +200, but I expect that will greatly improve by fight time, so keep an eye on the line if you’re a believer or a BJ Hater. If BJ underestimates Kenny or doesn’t care if he gets outpointed if he doesn’t feel like he’s getting beat up, then he could find himself shocked when he hears the judge’s scorecards.

Anderson Silva (-360) vs. Forrest Griffin (+300) (non-title fight)

This is a very awkward fight. For one, it’s hard to wrap one’s head around Silva in a three round fight against a top ten opponent. Really, this fight should be five rounds to give it time to really develop and for the real winner to be found. Compounding this is the fact that Silva’s last two fights seem to have melted the brains of most viewers.

Correctly interpreting Silva’s last two performances is the real key to understand where he’s at at this point in the game. In both fights Silva had opponents that had watched too many Silva highlight reels and were terrified of being anywhere near Silva and getting posterized as well. Now, many fans say that Silva, if he was truly the best in the world, should have been more aggressive, forced these opponents to engage, and assume that because he did not do more that he could not. The reality of the situation is a bit stranger. Anderson Silva was perfectly happy with those performances. He fought 8 rounds of perfect footwork, without ever getting out of position or making a mistake for an opponent to capitalize on. He was in the drivers seat for the entire fight, and he was ready to spring into action whenever it became necessary. He controlled each fight, took no damage, and racked up two more wins. Silva doesn’t feel like he has anything to prove, and has different goals than many fighters. These goals, by and large, are internal to himself and independent of public recognition or stardom. His pathological need to box Roy Jones Jr. is just the most easily accessible evidence of this. He’s chosen Jones not because Jones has a particular style that he thinks he could beat, or because he feels he could profit mightily from such a fight, but because he’s decided that boxing his idol would be the ultimate test as he seeks to discover something about himself that only Anderson really knows even needs investigation. Despite unusual results, Silva’s focus on fighting to the peak of his abilities, in whatever manner he deems most salient, has not wavered since he began his reign as champion.

Forrest, on the other hand, has a lot to prove, after being punished for getting sloppy by Rashad Evans and failing to defend his championship belt. This is a very high-risk high-reward fight for Forrest, and, regardless of outcome, serves to cement his image as an anyone- anywhere-anytime gamer.

Thus, both fighters should be expected to come as prepared as ever. On the feet, Anderson has huge advantages in power, technique, and chin. Ever since he perfected his punch mechanics, Anderson’s punching power has become ludicrous. It’s like he has a horseshoe in his glove or has some sort of cybernetic implant. Henderson, Marquardt, and Irvin are all pretty tough guys that collapsed into the fetal position and attempted to crawl back into the womb in tears after a single strike. Forrest’s much-maligned chin really isn’t bad, having stood up to a bruiser like Rampage Jackson for five rounds, but it also isn’t exceptional, having been cracked by big hitters in a division of very powerful men. If Anderson catches him with a well-timed punch, Forrest will melt just like everyone else has. Anderson is rarely ever hit, but he’s also never been so much as hurt in a fight, and Forrest, while he has heavy legs, isn’t a big puncher and is at a very big disadvantage in any equal exchange of blows. And the exchanges are likely to be quite unequal, as Silva’s technique and fluidity is light-years ahead of Griffin’s solid fundamentals. Griffin is a huge guy, but Silva has impeccable footwork and timing, and the champ gets good range on his strikes, so Forrest won’t have much success working the outside.

Forrest knows this, and will likely pursue a plan similar to the one he executed against Shogun, bulling the smaller fighter into the fence and a body clinch, using his size and constant pressure to avoid giving Silva the space he needs to work his Thai clinch and put Forrest to sleep. This is a very dangerous strategy, but, unlike the unfortunate Dan Henderson, Forrest only needs to control Silva for two rounds and survive a third. While he showed improvement in his last fight, Silva’s greatest weakness remains his wrestling. Forrest, while not the type to shoot for a power double, does an excellent job of muscling opponents to the ground using superior size and trips from the clinch, so if he survives closing the distance, he could put Silva flat on his back regularly. Silva has shown no desire to take fighters down, and even if he does try, he’ll have a hard time getting any kind of takedown on Forrest aside from just crumpling him to the mat with a strike.

When they engage on the ground, it will be a great test of Silva’s guard. In the past Silva has shown flashes of offensive brilliance off his back, as well as a Wanderlei-Silva level dedication to the purest stalling with a defensive guard. Forrest’s ground game is underrated, as he usually ends up striking with opponents, but, aside from an irresponsibly loose guard against Rashad (likely the result of being badly rocked), Forrest’s game is tight enough not to be unduly threatened by a smaller man’s guard, although it’s exceedingly unlikely that he can even come close to threatening Silva with a submission under normal circumstances.

While Forrest could win if he can continue driving in to make Silva contend with his size and cardio, forcing an engagement with Anderson Silva is probably the most dangerous thing you can do in MMA at this point, even ahead of crow-hopping towards Lyoto Machida with no guard and throwing a lazy feint. Forrest will have some success, but sooner or later Anderson will hit him with something brutal and finish him off. Anderson Silva by TKO round 2.

At +300, I think Forrest is being criminally overlooked. He loses most of the time, but the payout is such that there’s value here.

Johny Hendricks (-105) vs. Amir Sadollah (-120)

Will Amir actually make it to the ring without a serious injury or illness? Were these flukes or will his entire career be plagued by injuries? These are just a few of the many questions circling this match. The biggest of all–is Amir Sadollah for real, or did he simply capitalize on some mistakes to win a very weak season of TUF? Hendricks is an excellent litmus test here. Hendricks has the power to rough Amir up like Matt Brown did, if Amir hasn’t patched up his defense on the feet, and he also has the wrestling skill to take down and control Amir if all Amir has to offer is throwing up triangles and armbars with no set-up, which worked well enough for him before.

So, if Hendricks comes in like he has before, or better, Sadollah will have to show real improvement in order to win this fight and overcome his previous deficits. However, given that this is his first big fight and the first time he’s really been training on the top level, it’s entirely possible that Amir unveils some fresh new skills and takes home the victory. Given the various delays, it’s equally likely that Amir is well below 100% but so desperate for a purse and a fight that he’s coming in before he’s ready. A very hard fight to predict, but I think Amir rises to the challenge. Amir Sadollah by submission round 2.

Don’t bet on this fight, but watch it closely. Sadollah is the star, but Hendricks is a good prospect.

Ricardo Almeida (-160) vs. Kendall Grove (+135)

Grove is like a supermodel that lost a leg in a tragic motorcycle accident. Everything is there, and great and wonderful, except for one glaring omission that takes the whole package and just about ruins it, until you find one guy that’s willing to overlook that and appreciate the rest of the package for how great it is. Obviously, what’s missing is Grove’s chin, as he’s been dazed on occasion by especially menacing staredowns. Fortunately, Almeida is his prince charming, willing to give him a free pass on not being able to take punishment, since Ricardo can’t strike at all.

Considering that Almeida can’t exchange with Grove, he’ll have to turn to his bread and butter; takedowns and submissions. Unfortunately for Almeida, the game has changed quite a bit since he was king, and even fighters like Patrick Cote can defend his attack pretty well and most have better gas than he does.

Grove will have a big advantage on the feet, with his reach and pretty good power. When Almeida shoots in, Grove can sprawl (having dealt handily with wrestlers like Ed Herman and the late Evan Tanner) and punish him, and even if he gets in bad positions, he can defend the submission attack unless Almeida does something really brilliant. As the fight goes on Almeida will fade and take more punishment, so it will either be a one-sided decision or a late stoppage for Grove. Kendall Grove by decision.

Grove is being undervalued because he’s so inconsistent, but he’s inconsistent because people with striking ability can knock him out at any time. Even Almeida stands a chance of clubbing him, but these lines should really be reversed. Good for a play.

Josh Neer (-200) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (+190)

This fight was set up to be a barnburner, and the powers that be will likely get their wish. Both of these fighters are skilled all-rounders that tend to be overly aggressive and fall into submissions, despite impressive offensive grappling ability. Neer, a huge lightweight, has one of the most comical striking styles in MMA, walking through punches in displays of pure Hulk Hogan bravado while slamming opponents with punches that are so unorthodox and caveman-like that they can only be described as “clubbing”. Pellegrino has crisper hands and good power, but Neer’s sheer toughness and aggression often lets him overcome deficits like that, so the standup is anyone’s game.

Pellegrino should have an advantage on the ground, with an impressive arsenal of submission attacks and wrestling that should let him dictate where the fight takes place, but, again, Neer’s power and aggression is such that not only could he escape against Kurt, but if the opportunity presents itself (as it so often does for the mental-lapse-prone Pellegrino) Neer could find a submission himself.

In short, this is two very aggressive and mistake-prone fighters with excellent finishing skills. That tends to produce an exciting fight with high variance, and I expect no less. The end result depends on the matchup of Pellegrino’s wrestling vs. Neer’s size and strength. I’m betting on wrestling. Kurt Pellegrino by decision.

With Pellegrino as a large underdog with so much variance in this fight, he has to be played.

Shane Nelson (+135) vs. Aaron Riley (-160)

This fight is a much-deserved rematch to a fight that was stopped far too short. Riley is the consummate veteran, but like all such veterans, especially those known for taking a beating, he’s very deteriorated at this point in his career. Nelson is a young fighter, but calling him a hot prospect is a bit misleading. Still, he does have some well-rounded skills, and it wouldn’t be shocking at all to see him drop a fading Riley again. Either way, neither one will last long outside of the twilight zone of TUF vs. TUF matchups the UFC puts on its undercards and fight nights. Shane Nelson by TKO round 2.

John Howard (+160) vs. Tamdan McCrory (-175)

Howard had a stellar performance against Chris Wilson, which largely went unnoticed on the undercard of the massive UFC 94. Tamdan’s momentum after a deflating domination by Dustin Hazelett is just starting to rebuild with a complete destruction of a woefully overmatched Ryan Madigan. Both men are skilled grapplers, so this fight may come down to the fighter with the better takedowns. Howard is a very athletic guy, but Tamdan is huge for the weight class. Howard will probably have better submission offense, but Tamdan is no slouch.

One interesting development is that Tamdan is having to cut more weight every time he fights, with his body’s natural growth (he’s only 22) pushing him to a higher weight class. Against someone with an aggressive an unrelenting offensive game like Howard, this hard cut might cause him to fade in the later rounds, although most athletes in the UFC at this point can fight three fives without too much deterioration.

This fight could go either way, but Howard’s wrestling and submission skills should earn him the win. John Howard by decision.

A high-variance play, but Howard at +160 is worth a poke, for sure.

Thales Leites (-345) vs. Alessio Sakara (+325)

This is a pointless fight. Someone at Zuffa must really like Leites and want to rehabilitate him after his meltdown against Anderson Silva, because Sakara should be a total walkover for him. Sakara is a striker, but has a poor chin and not a lot of power, despite very clean and sharp hands. He has a brown belt in jiu-jitsu and trains with a good camp, but always seems out of his element on the floor. Leites isn’t a great striker, but he does have natural power in his haymakers, and he has a very solid chin. On the ground, he’s a lights-out submission threat, especially with an arm triangle choke. He should be able to outlast whatever Sakara throws at him, get takedowns, and finish him off on the floor. It would be funny to see, but it isn’t impossible that Leites throws a big haymaker and drops Sakara for his first real KO finish. Thales Leites by submission round 1.

I’ve found that laying big chalk on long odds is foolishness in MMA betting, but if you wanted to roll Leites into some parlays, he should be at about -9000.

Dan Cramer (+155) vs. Matthew Riddle (-170)

Dan Cramer might have personality, but he sucks as a fighter. That’s no knock against Dan’s ability, really, but he just is not prepared to be a professional fighter at the top level just yet, and is being pushed too fast because he had the personality to get on TUF and get some attention. Riddle is pure raw talent, but he’s got bit more experience and has been training professionally much longer. He may be borderline mentally handicapped, but he’s twice Cramer’s size, and Cramer won’t be able to do anything off his back. Riddle should be able to take down a confused Cramer and just muscle him around. Matt Riddle by decision.

I’m betting Riddle here, since he has a very clear-cut path to victory and Cramer isn’t a huge threat to do anything to him.

George Roop (+300) vs. George Sotiropoulos (-370)

Sotiropoulos is probably the most overrated TUF product now that Serra’s reputation is back where it belongs, but Roop is tiny, doesn’t have a lot of offensive firepower, and enters this fight on two weeks notice. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Roop beat him up on the feet, but since he struggled so mightily with Dave Kaplan, you have to expect that the bigger Sotiropoulos will manhandle him and beat him up. George Sotiropoulos by submission round 2.

Jesse Lennox (+170) vs. Danillo Villefort (-180)

Who? What? Lennox and Villefort are holdovers from the WEC 170lb division, fighting each other to help Zuffa cut down on its unwanted roster. This is a loser-leaves-town match, so even if no fans care about it, the fighters involved do.

Villefort is a guy with A++ submission skills, including off his back, but he really, really doesn’t like getting hit. Lennox is a solid ground and pounder with some submission skills, but he’ll be in big trouble if he can’t put punishment on Villefort quickly and lets him work his game. Villefort, when he gets hit, goes fetal and cries, so regular and efficient punishment is the clearest path to overcome his submissions. Lennox has the skills to do that if he’s on, but will get choked into oblivion if he screws up, so this should be an exciting fight. Jesse Lennox by TKO round 1.

I like a small bet on Lennox here, because Villefort’s submission wins have been covering his inability to take punishment.

1u Kurt Pellegrino at (+190) to win 1.9u
2u Kendall Grove at (+1.35) to win 2.7u
1u Forrest Griffin at (+300) to win 3u
1u John Howard at (+160) to win 1.6u
3.4u on Matt Riddle at (-170) to win 2u
1u on Lennox at (+170) to win 1.7u