UFC 93 Picks and Predictions – Which 185lber is the best 205lber?

By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)

UK Fans are desperate for MMA, so they’ll buy anything the UFC puts out, and the UFC has some important fights that won’t sell on PPV cards, but need to be made to keep guys active or pay lip service to the sporting aspects of their entertainment business. The result is this card: some Random Euros on the undercard, some name fighters in skill-building or recover matchups, and a couple quality scraps that don’t have the drawing power of a Brock Lesnar fight.

I expect this fight card will leave me satisfied and enthused about MMA, although I don’t think it has the ingredients to be anything but a pale reflection of UFC 92.

Dan Henderson (-130) vs. Rich Franklin (Even)

This, really, is a battle of Anderson Silva’s unwanted children, so distraught over their treatment at his hands that they ate themselves into a higher weight class. These guys are divisional all-stars, but their title shots left very few questions unanswered, so now they are struggling to find meaning and direction in the fight game. Both men exist in a sort of extra-divisional bubble where, despite being elite fighters, they are not being placed in positions where they could beat contenders or get another title shot. Dan recently snapped an unusual 2-fight skid (against UFC champions, to be fair) with a surprisingly controlled and strategic decision over Brazillian troll-man Rousimar Palhares, while Rich most recently cruised to victory over the undeniably tough and strong man-child Matt Hamill. The winner here will receive a little-wanted billing alongside Michael Bisping on yet another season of TUF, a sure way to keep them on cryo-freeze rather than messing up a division they are increasingly alienated from.

Henderson has been a top-ten fighter for a decade now, and although he’s surely on the back-end of his career, his right hand still has the sleep-inducing power of CSPAN-2, even if the rest of his game was never developed to an elite level. For an olympic wrestler, Henderson ends up on his back far more often than he should, almost always due to his wildly flailing attempts to knock his opponent’s block off. Henderson doesn’t always have the best gas, but his epic battle with Rampage showed that when he takes the fight game seriously, he can be a danger to anyone for a full 25 minutes. Henderson also doesn’t have the world’s most dominating top game. His last submission victory was more than a decade ago, and almost all of his damage is done on the feet. Although he has cleaned up his striking recently, Henderson still throws almost exclusively big right-handed power shots, which more technical kickboxers (like Kazuo Misaki) can avoid and counter.

Rich is the Nogueira to Anderson Silva’s Fedor – the man who was THE man, until the other man came along. Rich only has three losses on his record, but his humanity and mortality have been exposed in embarrassing fashion on the largest stage, leading the forum subhuman type MMA fans to write the man off. As his fights with Hamill and Lutter should have reminded everyone, Franklin is a top-quality fighter with real skills and a bruising, well-rounded game. The centerpiece of that game is what came up so short against Anderson Silva; Rich has solid kickboxing with good power, amplified by the bruising fact that he is usually quite a bit larger than his opponents. He isn’t a technical virtuoso, but as he showed against Hamill, Rich has far more chops than most, and will embarrass and beat up someone less sharp than him. While his size and strength advantage usually keep Rich off the floor, he has a vastly underrated submission game, more than enough to keep Dan from getting to work on top.

Dan has more power, better wrestling, and a better chin. Rich has better conditioning, better striking, more size and strength, a better guard than Dan has top game, and more dangerous submissions. So, unless Dan can just land a big one on Rich and turn his lights out, he’s going to get frustrated, tagged, and worn out while he windmills in Rich’s general direction. Dan has a very good chin, but he’s been dropped on frequent occasion when he’s been hit squarely, so there’s a chance Rich could drop him and swarm him with GNP for a finish, and if you don’t think Franklin has the skills, just look at his very impressive finishing rate. Rich Franklin by decision.

While Henderson is a threat to anyone he steps in the cage with, I think Rich has enough of an edge on him to justify a bet at -130 or better. Dan will have the less effective standup, and that’s really the only way he can win this fight, so his best shot is the proverbial “puncher’s chance”. With Rich available at up to +115 on some books at the time of this writing, I think this is a very good play.

Mark Coleman (+320) vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (-400)

Last time he fought, Coleman punched like an elderly gorilla and still didn’t know what an armbar actually consisted of. He says he’s training right for the first time ever, but he’s said that for every one of his past fights. The guy has never demonstrated very good gas and his ground-and-pound isn’t the meat grinder it used to be. He’s been out of the ring for over two years at this point, so maybe, if he’s been training at an elite level for every day of those years, he’ll come back and look like a different fighter. But we’re talking about a 44 year old man here. Coleman also doesn’t have a quality win since 2003, assuming you’re willing to count a 2003 Don Frye as a quality win. On the other hand, he’s been extremely inactive and only lost to top 3 heavyweights this century.

Shogun has also had a very long layoff and two serious knee injuries, and he certainly didn’t look up to his world-beating 2005 form in his last outing against Forrest, where he simply got dominated by a bigger man with better conditioning. Shogun had a serious knee injury going into that fight, which likely had a lot to do with how poorly he moved and how quickly he gassed. His standup is aggressive and powerful, but he’s not the sharpest or the most skilled guy, as we found out when Cyrille Diabate made him cry before getting curb stomped. Against Coleman, however, it will be inconceivable that Shogun won’t have an advantage on the feet.

Coleman’s game, based on aggressive takedowns, lay-and-pray, and occasional ground and pound when he massively outpowers his opponents, will be hurt by his smaller frame, age, and the fact that he’s facing a very skilled and fluid grappler. Really his only chances here are if he can rock Shogun and then go gorilla on him on the ground, or if Shogun really is just deflated now that he’s in the UFC, and gets manhandled until he gasses out, allowing Coleman to ride out a decision.

Even if Shogun is only half the fighter he was when he took the MMA world by storm in 2005-2006, it will still be enough to get past any Mark Coleman we’ve seen this century. Coleman will be able to get takedowns, have no doubt of that. But Rua’s activity level will just wear the old man out. Unless he gets his face smashed in with an elbow in the scramble, Shogun will most likely end this fight with a heel-hook shortly after Mark gets his first takedown. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua by submission round 1.

Do not bet on this fight unless it’s a small flier on Coleman if his odds get silly. There is far too much variance, and there is a real chance that Shogun has lost a step physically or gets re-injured with Coleman manhandling him. Coleman is a total unknown and brings a lot of physical tools, which is a real danger.

Alan Belcher (+240) vs. Denis Kang (-295)

An exciting matchup between two flawed fighters. Belcher is a very young guy, still, and improving daily, although he sorely needs to, after being positively flummoxed by the rubber guard against Jason Day, although he’s coming off the most impressive performance of his career in a very tough decision over Ed Herman. Kang has a ton of gifts, but a suspect (although not convicted) chin and a tendency to tard out at inopportune moments and end up getting triangled or something similar. Kang’s billion-fight win streak over various Koreans is proof enough, however, that he has an extremely dangerous offensive game that can often make up for these defects. He’s a big 185, hits very hard, and can wrestle and submit well enough that Belcher doesn’t want to play around on the ground with him, either.

I think this fight is very close, with Belcher’s striking prowess and takedown defense working against the sheer power of Kang. While Belcher is dangerous, he doesn’t have enough power to really put Kang out unless he lands a very big shot very cleanly, so I have to think that Kang is a slight favorite. Either way, I expect fireworks. Denis Kang by KO round 2.

I think that Kang is being overvalued here, because of his name and status as a former fighter in Japanese promotions. There’s a good chance of Belcher coming in looking better than ever and lighting Kang up, in which case I would expect Kang to fold very quickly. At +240, I think a small play on Belcher is justified.

Jeremy Horn vs. Rousimar Palhares

This is a terrible style matchup for Horn. Horn has decent standup, although little power. He has impotent wrestling, and can be good with his submissions. Palhares has an incredible leg-lock game and is a monster grappler with terrific physical power. His standup is very poor, as we saw against Dan Henderson, consisting mostly of ridiculous spin kicks and the like. Also, his power comes in bursts and wears him out, so he could gas.

That said, Horn no longer seems to care at all about MMA or training seriously. He is on a 4-fight losing streak against decent competition, and hasn’t looked impressive at all, or even that upset about losing. Horn seems to just be there for a paycheck and to promote his name. I don’t really hold that against him–you gotta make a buck any way you can to get by! Heck, I had to put my dreams of being an international male model on the back burner to accept the more steady income and job security of internet MMA pundit.

Digression aside, even if Horn fought at his peak, Palhares is so good that he’d still likely be able to throw him to the ground and roll into some kind of nasty leg lock. Horn hasn’t gotten a submission since he polished off the armbar-prone Chael Sonnen back in 2006, and Palhares is good enough to avoid most of Horn’s tricks unless he gasses horribly. Gassing horribly could also lead to Horn knocking him around on the feet a bit, but that’s in the same realm of possibility as Frank Mir landing K-1 combos and knocking out Nogueira without breaking a sweat. Oh wait. In any case. Rousimar Palhares by heel-hook, round 1.

I think, due to the style matchup makes a play on Palhares at -315 a reasonable one. There really are very few ways for Horn to win this fight, and there’s no reason to believe he has a 1 in 4 chance of making them happen.

Marcus Davis (-135) vs. Chris Lytle (+115)

They’ve talked about standing and banging, they love to stand and bang, they’ve promised each other to stand and bang until death do they part. All of that is mildly irritating, but the fight should be fun anyway. Lytle has a great chin, but Davis has phenomenal, watermelon-splattering power in his hands, and is a crisper boxer, too. I expect Lytle to repeatedly get the short end of the stick in punching exchanges, with a stoppage being pretty likely if he continues to let his chin get tested.

Davis isn’t a big guy for 170, but Lytle isn’t a great wrestler, so even if things (like his eye sockets) go pear-shaped for Lytle, it will still be a bit of a struggle to try and make some use of the world’s dustiest jiu-jitsu black belt. Davis isn’t the prototypical fish-out-of-water striker on the ground, either—although he’ll likely have to limit himself to defending, he has the skills to defend Lytle’s submission attacks to a pretty good degree, enough to escape, last out the round, or get stood up.

In essence, Lytle got beat up too badly by a pure kickboxer in Paul Taylor, who has very little in the way of a well-rounded game, for me to believe that he’s not just going to trade with Davis until his face is in a different shape. With Davis’ power, Lytle might not even get a chance to reconsider his strategy, either. Win or lose, Lytle knows his style will keep him on the main cards and keep money in his pocket. After Matt Serra’s inevitable embarrassing loss to a retiring Matt Hughes, a rematch of the Lytle/Serra TUF finale could provide a good stepping stone for Lytle to re-establish his own type of legitimacy. Marcus Davis by KO round 1.

I like Davis at -135 for a one-unit play. If you got him at a better price, you will likely be able to arbitrage your bet on the day of the fight.

Alexandre Barros (+345) vs. Martin Kampmann (-425)

After an absolute pasting at the hands of the most underrated middleweight fighter in the world, Kampmann has taken a step down in weight class, and a giant leap down in level of competition. Barros has a record inflated with wins over tons of dead-end fighters, and unless Kampmann’s weight cut is a horrible one, he should be able to smoke Barros. Kampmann’s never had tremendous knockout power (or even decent power, really) and it’s likely, even though he’s too small for 185, that the cut will be harder than he expects (it seems that it almost always is, the first time), so there’s a good chance he won’t look as good as he so often does in this fight. The guy has tremendous talent and would provide a very interesting striking matchup with Thiago Alves. Barros will get beat up, gas flailing for a takedown, and get finished off by Kampmann. Martin Kampmann by TKO round 2.

Antonio Mendes (-105) vs. Eric Schafer (-125)

Schafer won the lottery (the scratch-off lottery, not the big one) by serving as a the litmus test for whether Houston Alexander had any future in the UFC as currently formulated. The answer was ‘no’ and an average fighter picked up a win over a big (if not-well respected) name. Now the cruel gods in control of Zuffa are looking to use him to put over another big hitter, in Antonio Mendes.

While Mendes looked impotent against the feral ground attack of Thiago Silva, he has a far superior ground game to Houston Alexander, and a more well-refined striking game as well. Schafer was put up against Houston because he is quite vulnerable to getting knocked around and offers very little on the feet. If Mendes can use his range and kick Schafer in the head from a distance, he should be able to avoid any ground confrontation and quickly batter Eric into submission. Antonio Mendes TKO round 1.

Mendes is underpriced here. He’s a higher-quality fighter and is favored in the style matchup. Provided Schafer doesn’t become incredibly strong and destructive overnight, he’s not going to be able to do what Thiago Silva did.

Thomasz Drwal (-215) vs. Ivan Serati (+175)

Serati is impressive-looking, but, Drwal is training for real now and should be a considerably higher-quality fighter than Serati (fun fact: only one of the opponents Serati has beaten now has a winning record, and that fighter is the only one to take Serati to decision). Thomasz Drwal by TKO in the 1st.

While Drwal should be much improved, it’s unknown how high his ceiling is, and Serati has enough power (as do so many 205s) to change the fight with one shot if Drwal makes a mistake. Don’t bet on this fight unless the odds improve for Drwal, or improve greatly for Serati.

Tom Egan (+160) vs. John Hathaway (-200)

Hathaway is better, has beaten higher-quality opposition, has a more well-rounded game, and has more experience. Egan has a shot, but Hathaway has to be regarded as the favorite. John Hathaway by decision.

Denis Siver (-160) vs. Nate Mohr (+130)

Somebody tell Mohr to look out for the achilles lock. Mohr’s got very sharp hands, but his wrestling and submission defense are sub-par at best. I think Siver can take this one fairly easily if he gets it to the ground, since Mohr doesn’t have the speed or punching power of a Melvin Guillard, let alone the wrestling. Denis Siver by submission round 1.

My plays

2u Rich Franklin to win 2.1u
.5u Alan Belcher to win 1.1u
2u Marcus Davis to win 1.74u
1u Antonio Mendes to win .95u
2u Palhares to win .63u