By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
Day of Reckoning is most likely the last Affliction show that will ever be produced. The payroll is enormous, the production costs are even higher, and ticket sales have been abysmal – even now they are being given away to radio stations for promotions. I’m not predicting a K-1 Dynamite USA level debacle, but it will be quite rough. PPV sales will likely be better than any other non-UFC promotion has ever managed, but not enough to keep Tom Attencio’s head above water. Unless the Affliction clothing company thinks it’s worth it to dump millions of dollars into MMA events to keep themselves associated with the MMAlifestyle types, basically promoting fights as giant advertising events, then there is certainly no future in the promotion.
Which is sad, because as this card demonstrates, they have a wealth of fantastic talents, all of whom will be tied up in the companies death throws for six to twelve months after it becomes clear the promotion is dead. This upsets me because it makes the Barnett vs. Fedor match I long for all the more unlikely.
Of course, that sort of thinking is a bit premature, since Fedor is facing his toughest opponent in years in Andrei Arlovski, making this heavyweight tilt one well worth watching.
WAMMA heavyweight champion Fedor Emelianenko (-350) vs. Andrei Arlovski (+300)
Fedor is the best in the world. He has no weaknesses, has the right mentality, trains in the proper ways, and has a large number of physical gifts. His striking is wild, but well-timed and powerful, and his top control is air-tight. On the feet or on the ground he has the ability to bring tremendous force (either in punches or submissions) with astonishing speed. While he has faced a spotty schedule in recent years, his demolition of Tim Sylvia makes a strong argument that he has not missed a step.
Arlovski is an elite fighter, although he does have vulnerabilities. While it’s not particularly fragile, his chin isn’t rock-solid, merely average. He is useless off his back, and has demonstrated weakness in the face of adversity before, shelling up and becoming overly defensive and timid. He’s quite a physical specimen, and will have about 20 lbs of muscle on Fedor, as well as a couple inches of height and reach. Arlovski is very fast and has great hands, with good power behind them. He has good takedown defense against traditional wrestling, although Fedor can probably drag him down from a clinch.
This fight has the potential to be over in the blink of an eye. If either guy lands their money punch (Arlovski’s overhand right or one of Fedor’s lightning-fast leads) then there’s a very good chance the whole shebang will be over. If Fedor can get side control or half-guard on the ground, he can probably pound Arlovski out in under a minute. If both fight defensively, the fight could drag out, but fans should be on the edge of their seats, because they could explode at any moment. On the ground, while Arlovski has shown a weak guard, he’s also never been submitted, and has a pretty solid sambo game, so submission attempts from Fedor may give him chances to reverse position and regain his feet.
Fedor is better in every position except for striking at distance, so he is the clear favorite here, but make no mistake—Arlovski is legitimate competition and he definitely has the tools to plonk Fedor and shock the MMA world. Any time you have fighters of this caliber, the victory is up for grabs. Crocop and Fujita nearly KO’d Fedor, and I’m sure Arlovski is looking to do them one better. Fedor Emelianenko by TKO (ground and pound) round 1.
Many people are betting on Fedor at these long odds, which I think is really discounting Arlovski’s skills. If he can put his hands on Fedor, the momentum will quickly swing his way. Although Arlovski at +280 isn’t very tempting to me, I made a play at more favorable odds and officially recommend one if you can get him at +340 or better.
Josh Barnett (-475) vs. Gilbert Yvel (+400)
Barnett has one of the most well-rounded offensive games in the heavyweight division, although his wrestling is pretty poor for how often he’s billed as a wrestler. Yvel, after 10 years, has finally learned a little bit of submission defense, but really that’s not going to help him here. Yvel is still a good striker with heavy hands, but Josh is no slouch and could probably drop Yvel himself if they just stood and banged it out. Josh is smarter than that and is going to just go smash-face on Yvel, try to suplex him, and then work his nasty and unusual catch-wrestling game, especially leglocks, which Yvel has been susceptible to in the past. If he doesn’t tap immediately, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Yvel kick Barnett in the face on the ground in reaction to a heel-hook. Josh Barnett by submission round 1.
While Barnett is rightly a huge favorite here, I think he so overmatches Yvel that he’s worth a bet if you can get him for under -500.
Vitor Belfort (+145) vs. Matt Lindland (-160)
Belfort has the power to bust Matt in his very average chin and simply plonk him. Lindland, despite not being much of a striker, does have some pretty solid power in his strikes, so he could drop Vitor as well. Lindland also has the perfect gameplan from training partner and buddy Dan Henderson. Vitor is a huge frontrunner that has never done well deep in fights or been able to handle adversity without shutting down. Lindland has the perfect grinder style to exploit this for three rounds and just rough Vitor up until he cries. Lindland didn’t look particularly good in his last fight, gassing and getting very sloppy. Vitor looked better, against poor competition, but even there his hands didn’t look good enough to count on catching Lindland with the proverbial “punch on the way in”. If Lindland isn’t totally past it as a fighter, he should take this one in a relatively undramatic affair. Matt Lindland by decision.
Renato “Babalu” Sobral (-155) vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (+135)
Babalu is a tough guy with good wrestling and very strong submission offense. Sokoudjou is a slugger with phenomenal KO power and extreme athletic ability. Sokoudjou tends to blow his wad out early if a fighter has strong defense or is just really tough (or both, and fades badly if he can’t get a lot done early. Babalu has very sloppy striking, and often gets carried away trying to beat up his opponent, leaving the opportunity for huge counters (Chuck Liddell, Jason Lambert). I think this tendency to play “check my chin” will spell doom for Babalu. Sokoudjou has looked very blah on his back, and Babalu could certainly capitalize on that if he gets top position, but I think Sokoudjou has the explosive power to avoid takedowns early and force a standup-focused first round. Babalu is tough, but he can’t take what the African Assassin can dish out. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou KO round 1.
This is a close, competitive fight, but I don’t think Sokoudjou should be this much of an underdog, and find him good for a play.
Jay Hieron (-325) vs. Jason High (+265)
Definitely not the most meaningful fight to ever have graced a PPV. Hieron is a reasonably high-quality fighter with a questionable chin. I’ve never seen Jason High fight, but he has a decent record for a prospect, so maybe he can come out and show the world he means business and floor Hieron. I wouldn’t bet on it though. I’m going to abstain on making an “official” pick, although I expect Hieron to win a standup fight.
Paul Buentello (-155) vs. Kiril Sidelnikov (+130)
Sidelnikov is the man-sized boy that is mostly known for his position as Fedor’s protege and sparring partner. He is kinda fat, a 205lber if he got himself in tip-top shape, and he is pretty weak off his back. That aside, he has real talent and is quite a man on the feet, throwing mullet-shattering hays that have floor his generally poor opposition. Buentello is best known for his position as the protege of Big Boy from Big Boy Burgers, and it shows in his ridiculous build, with little stick arms and legs attached to a mound of gut. Appearances aside, Buentello is a decent quality heavyweight, who has displayed good hands in the past. However, his last performance, against Gary Goodridge, was putrid. Goodridge is a man who has so much brain damage from being KO’d every weekend in various MMA and K-1 matches that he cries about X-arm competitions, and there were times when he looked to be taking control of the fight or executing a superior gameplan to Buentello, which is just comical and sad. If Buentello can’t or won’t take Kiril down and smother him for three rounds, Kiril will most likely clean his clock. Kiril Sidelnikov KO round 2.
This has been an interesting fight from a betting perspective – Kiril opened at +175, and money has poured in on him, pushing him all the way down to +115. I managed to get on Kiril at the early, favorable odds, which are long gone now. Since it sometimes takes me a while to put together my complete breakdowns, and odds can change like this in a matter of hours, feel free to contact me via my email address (at the top of this article) if you want to discuss fights in real time.
Vladamir Matyushenko (EVEN) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (-125)
Sadly, this high-quality bout won’t be on the PPV, although if you have HDnet it will be broadcast for free! Matyushenko is a poor man’s Randy Couture, with perhaps better boxing, and is currently riding a nice long win streak from fighting lesser opposition in the IFL. Nogueira, once in his brother’s shadow, carries on the Nogueira name in a much less shopworn package. He has the boxing skills and much of the submission slickness of the more famous Nogueira, with more power in his hands and more speed left in his legs and hips, since he doesn’t know Fedor’s fists on a first-name basis. When these two last met Matyushenko shut down Nogueira’s game completely, forcing a standup war where he systematically picked apart the Brazillian. I think that this rematch will probably be decided on the feet, only this time Nogueira’s improved boxing and power will see him through. I don’t think Matyushenko wants anything to do with taking down Rogerio or playing in his guard. I think the improved power in Rogerio’s strikes, combined with the natural effects of age, will combine to give Matyushenko more than he can handle on the feet, leading to a solid decision win for Rogerio, unless the Janitor gets tagged too hard and goes for desperation takedowns, which would probably get him submitted. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira by decision.
Matyushenko is a quality fighter, so I don’t like Nogueira at -130 or above, Nogueira has been as high as +160, which is ludicrous and a very good arbitrage at this point.
My Plays
1u Arlovski to win 3.4u
1u Sidelnikov to win 1.75u
1u Rogerio Nogueira to win .91u
1u Sokoudjou to win 1.25u
