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UFC 110 is one of the most interesting fight cards that Zuffa has put on in the last twelve months, with lots of opportunities for prospects to make an impact and the chance for a highly touted young fighter to have a “star is born” moment if he can knock off the second greatest heavyweight the sport has ever seen.
This is an event where the results and developments will be just as exciting as the in-ring action, if not more so. Hardcores will be tearing up the message boards while casual fans are decrying the large number of decisions.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (-108) vs. Cain Velasquez (-120)
It’s rare for the headline fight to be the most interesting fight on a card from a style perspective. Even if you don’t see the fight as a referendum on the guard, the storyline of the fading legend vs. the young stud still developing and maturing his game is a compelling one.
On the feet, Cain will be faster, but Nogueira will have a longer reach and crisper boxing. Both of these guys have such good chins it’s not likely they can hurt each other, so it will be a matter of Nog picking Cain apart or Cain simply catching him flat-footed and beating him to the punch. With any Cain Velasquez fight, though, it’s not likely to be decided on the feet.
Thus far in his career, Cain has completely run over his opponents with takedowns, riding time, and ground and pound. However, in Nogueira, he faces the first opponent that can give him a run for his money on the ground. Nogueira’s guard is the stuff of legend, but legends never look as good when brought into the bright lights and harsher tests of the modern age.
This will be a real test of how much beyond pure wrestling Cain’s grappling skills have advanced. Nogueira has always exposed himself to punishment when he couldn’t control a fighter’s posture or sweep them, so if Cain can keep his base, he should be able to get busy with pounding on the Brazilian superstar. With Cain’s seemingly limitless gas tank and Nogueira’s age slowing him down, this fight could become a blowout if Nogueira can’t find a way to stop the takedown or the ground and pound before the third round.
With Cain’s excellent positioning on top, it’s unlikely Nogueira will simply throw up a triangle or armbar and wrap this up. The biggest submission danger to Cain comes from letting his head get out of position during his takedowns. Nogueira is known for his guard, but he is very lethal with chokes on opponents driving in for takedowns. Cain has spoken about this in interviews and says he is cognizant of the danger and preparing for it, but knowing a world-class fighter has a specific weapon in his arsenal and being able to truly negate it are two completely different things.
It’s going to be interesting to see how this plays out, although it’s unfortunately likely that we get three close rounds in the kind of fight that seems to just be getting interesting when the final bell rings. Cain won’t be nearly as dominant as he has been over lesser competition, but his speed, posture, and athleticism should let him ride out the fight for a lopsided decision. Cain Velasquez by decision.
Cain has been available as high as +190, and represented a good value there, although Nogueira could very well take this fight, so I would not advise too large a play.
Michael Bisping (+125) vs. Wanderlei Silva (-155)
How much does Wanderlei have left in the tank? Can Bisping fix the problems that have plagued him? What is worse: Wanderlei’s chin or Bisping’s power? It’s always fun when a fight raises interesting questions that will be answered in the cage.
Michael Bisping has always suffered when opponents pressure him on the feet. He just tries to run away, and is seemingly incapable of circling away from right-handed power. He fights in a counter style, but without much power, he has to out-land his opponent and slip their punches rather than backing them off because they get hurt when they come at him. Wanderlei has always been over-aggressive and walked in to punches, because he had the iron will to take the punishment and the punching power to end up on the winning side of such exchanges. If he can get a piece of Bisping when he punches, this is his fight to win. If Bisping can move in and out on him and tag him up, Wanderlei might hit the canvas again, or at least shut down his offense a bit and lose a decision, as he did against Chuck and Franklin.
Henderson’s right hand has become more accurate and faster than Silva’s wild hooks, but Bisping’s problems have been clearly visible for much of his career and he still hasn’t been able to fix them. Fans can expect a slugfest here, with both fighters getting bloodied and Bisping ending up on the losing side of the exchanges. As Bisping’s style melts down and Wanderlei’s gas runs out, this could become a very ugly fight. Fortunately, there’s a good chance Bisping gets finished again. Bisping has a solid enough chin, so fans shouldn’t expect another starching like Henderson delivered, but everyone knows that Silva is a mad dog when it comes to pouncing on a wounded opponent for a finish, so if Bisping ever leaves his feet, he need all his faculties to keep from getting swarmed to death. Wanderlei Silva by decision.
George Sotiropoulos (+200) vs. Joe Stevenson (-245)
Joe Stevenson has made fantastic progress since training with Greg Jackson, although much of that progress has actually been a regression of sorts. Stevenson has gone back to fighting to his strengths (wrestling, top position, his squeeze) rather than into his weaknesses (playing a striking game despite being about 4’6” and having tiny t-rex arms). He has some of the most interesting and creative finishes to takedowns you’ll see in MMA, rolling into spladles and the like, although his game lacks a big finishing threat outside of his crushing guillotine, which is unlikely to land on Sotiropoulos. George is well-rounded in all facets of the game, but unless he’s made big improvements, he’s going to be just a step behind Stevenson here. Joe has several submission losses on his record, but the ones he suffered in the UFC were as a result of being physically dominated and beat up, rather than any true grappling deficiency. Unless Sotiropoulos can outwrestle Stevenson and run top game on him like he did the hapless Jason Dent, Stevenson will out-hustle him for a decision win. The diciest round for Stevenson may well be the third, as he’s absolutely dragged across the finish line late in many of his fights. Stevenson by decision.
Ryan Bader (-160) vs. Keith Jardine (+135)
Has Bader shored up the holes in his game that nearly cost him the fight against Eric Schafer? Is Jardine still just waiting for a counter left hook to come over his flailing, out-of-position hands and put him to sleep? Those are the questions in this fight. Bader being out-struck by a journeyman like Eric Schafer really indicates he has a ton of improvement to do, while Jardine should have learned by now that he needs to work on his defense and keeping his hands in position.
Bader isn’t an ace striker by any means, but he has big power, so if Jardine gets sloppy and lets him land clean, this fight is over. However, Jardine can survive against big hitters and good strikers when he’s on his game, as his fights with Rampage, Chuck Liddell, and Brandon Vera all show. Furthermore, while Bader has a big wrestling advantage, Jardine has shown that he is very hard to hold down and can spring up quickly. Since repeatedly going for or defending takedowns is the most exhausting thing a fighter does in MMA, Jardine springing up like a weeble-wobble will test Bader’s gas tank, which has seemed very limited in the past.
If Bader wears down, Jardine will absolutely rip him up with his heavy strikes, and if Jardine can fight off the takedowns early, the Greg Jackson product might not even have to wait for the gas to run out. Jardine has a good chance of getting totally gonged by Bader’s early power, but he has the skills and style to win this fight otherwise. Keith Jardine by decision.
With his advantages, Jardine should be the favorite here. He’s good for a play at +135
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Anthony Perosh
Trivia: Perosh has beaten both of the “Twin Tiger” foki siblings. That has to count for something, right? Okay, maybe not. Filipovic has deteriorated, but he showed, even in taking a one-sided beating at the hands of Junior Dos Santos, that he’s still a tough and dangerous guy. Dos Santos controlled the fight, but the counters he ate tore his face up like the LAPD had been wilding out on him. Perosh, even if he manages to push the pace and take the fight to Crocop like some have before, will crumple when Crocop lands a legitimate counter left hand on his face. Crocop by KO round 1.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Stephan Bonnar (+160) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (-175)
Krzysztof Soszynski hates vowels. Stephan Bonnar apparently hates staying healthy and winning fights. Losing to Mark Coleman, the same Mark Coleman that looked like living death against Couture and Shogun, should really count against this man until his dying day.
Soszynski is not a fantastic fighter, as we saw when he was totally outclassed against Brandon Vera, but we’re not about to see that kind of game from Bonnar. Krzysztof’s biggest assets are his punching power and overall physical strength, which his wrestling and submission game depends on more than technique. Bonnar is a big, well-rounded guy, but he won’t be able to do anything off his back or in the clinch, and he doesn’t have the power to exchange with Krzysztof.
Bonnar, for as fragile as he seems to be in the practice room, is quite durable in the ring, so you can expect Krzysztof to put in a lot of work on him without too much result. Unless he gases badly in the third (not unlikely) and Krzysztof turns up the heat for a gnp stoppage, this is destined for a decision. Soszynski by decision.
This line opened as a pick-em, where Soszynski was a great play. I still have confidence in him at -175, but only for a normal-sized play.
Brian Foster (+140) vs. Chris Lytle (-145)
Chris Lytle must be respected for being honest with himself. Some time ago he realized that, while he had high-level skills and was a talented fighter, simply using those skills to the best of his ability in a conservative manner was never going to get him a title shot. Ever since then, he’s fought with wild abandon, relying on his phenomenal chin and BJJ black belt to keep from being finished and depending on ridiculously wild haymakers to earn him bonus checks. Fighting in a style that emphasizes entertainment over competitiveness is far too close to pro-wrestling for many MMA fans, but you have to respect the honest assessment of his place in the world.
Against Foster, that will be a terrible strategy. While Lytle doing his best helicopters looks impressive as all hell, it rarely seems to generate the kind of power you’d want from a dude that throws himself off his feet chucking fastballs at his opponent. Brian Foster, on the other hand, has shown a lot of natural punching power, and if Lytle continues to flail around with no defense and go punch-for-punch, he’s going to get hammered. Lytle also wears down late in fights, so if he goes long with Foster, the third round will be absolutely brutal.
The best path to victory for Foster would be to use the wrestling that overwhelmed Brock Larson to staple Lytle to the floor and look to do damage to him there. This will make Lytle even more desperate on the feet, and reduce the chances one of Lytle wild haymakers hits him on the button and costs him the fight. The biggest concern here is that Lytle does have some ground skills and Foster fell victim to one of the more dubious submissions in recent memory, being tapped with an arm triangle from within his own guard. If that was a momentary failing and Foster’s ground game is not as abysmal as that makes it look, he should be able to put work in on Lytle and bust him up for the win. Brian Foster by decision.
This is a great bet at +140 and it was a better bet at +170
C.B. Dollaway (+200) vs. Goran Reljic (-215)
After impressively stomping Wilson Gouveia nearly two years ago, Reljic has been plagued by injuries and illnesses that have kept him from competing again since. Two years worth of ring rust can be truly epic, compounded by often missing out on the evolution of the sport. C.B. Dollaway is someone that still has huge problems in his game, namely below-average striking, porous submission defense, and poor cardio.
If Reljic comes in any kind of shape and isn’t covered in ring-rust, he should be able to threaten Dollaway on the feet with powerful kicks and freakish reach, wear him down, and knock him out in the second round. If Dollaway has the wherewithal to get takedowns, it will be a very long fifteen minutes for C.B. to go without getting submitted or reversed by a skilled grappler like Reljic. Don’t be completely shocked if Reljic misses weight and fights terribly though. Long periods spent on the shelf with injuries can wreck fighters. Reljic by KO round 2.
Igor Pokrajac (+160) vs. James Te Huna (-153)
Te Huna is a banger from New Zealand, and it’s always good to see some of the local flavor when the UFC takes its show on the road. Fortunately for Te Huna (who really should choose “The Tuna” as his nickname) Igor’s ticket to this dance is fairly questionable as well, as he’s only in the octagon as part of a package deal with main card fighter Mirko Crocop.
Igor is far too hittable, having been repeatedly tagged up by a mediocre striker in Vladimir Matyushenko, and while Te Huna doesn’t come out and throw crisp K-1 combos, he aggressively bangs out big punches, which will hurt Igor badly and put him down for the count. Te Huna by KO round 1.
My Plays:
2u on Brian Foster at (+170) to win 3.4u
2.5u on Krzysztof Soszynski at (-125) to win 2u
1u on Keith Jardine at (+135) to win 1.35u
1u on Cain Velasquez at (+160) to win 1.6u
I don't respect Lytle's "honest assessment of his place in the world." He's not even saying he's going to try and knock his oppopent out and get the Knockout of the Night bonus. I hope he loses and gets cut.