Picks and Predictions for UFC 104: The Machida Era

By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)

Any time you get to see Lyoto Machida fight, it is a treat. The man is an absolute master and his style is fascinating. Add to that the fact that his opponent is none other than Shogun Rua, one of the most electrifying fighters ever to strap on gloves, and formerly the best in the world, and you have a must-see match. The fact that you get to see a blue-chip prospect like Cain Velasquez sternly tested on the undercard on top of a plethora of high-quality matchups makes this event a must-watch.

Lyoto Machida (-405) vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (+325) (for light-heavyweight title)

This is Shogun’s chance to re-establish himself as the best of the best at 205 pounds. Lyoto Machida has appeared nearly invincible, and Shogun has yet to recapture the magic that seemed to come so easily and naturally when he was fighting for Pride.

Shogun enters this fight as a heavy underdog, and rightly so. While he has a reputation as an elite striker, he has traditionally employed a wide-open and wild style that looked fantastic when he was crushing the likes of Hiromitsu Kanehara, but ran him into trouble against fighters with legitimate standup skills. Against Overeem, Diabate, Nogueira, and Nakamura, he lost until he took the fight down to the floor where he truly excels. Shogun can throw a variety of strikes and hits very hard when he lands, but the square stance and complete lack of guard meant fighters with the ability to really throw back at him made him cry and forced him to work takedowns. As we’ve seen from Machida’s other opponents, he can be a real litmus test that exposes the flaws in an opponent’s standup, which Shogun has in spades.

The X-factor here is that, against Chuck Liddell, Shogun employed a completely different stance. Gone was the wide-spread and planted legs leading to wild machinegun punches. He actually kept his hands up, protected himself, and used footwork to move around the ring in a controlled fashion (although he did finish the fight with what amounted to diving clothesline). Shogun is a really talented guy, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he continued to develop this style and came in to the fight with Machida with a polished and refined striking game, but a new style that’s only been battle-tested against a geriatric Chuck Liddell is a very dangerous thing to try out against Machida.

The other big deficit Shogun brings into the fight is his cardio. While he looked like some sort of plague victim against Mark Coleman, Shogun has never shown himself to have three strong rounds of cardio, let alone the five for a championship fight. At his best, he’s a real dynamo for the first seven or eight minutes of a fight, but slows down noticeably past that point. Lyoto has shown himself to have real staying power as well as the obvious economy of motion of his style, although he hasn’t gone into the championship rounds yet. If Shogun slows down, Machida will take him apart.

However, Shogun does have two dangerous weapons that make this fight more than a walkover for Machida. He has a versatile and powerful array of strikes, and he has a very slick and dangerous submission game.

While Machida should have a big advantage on the feet and is an expert at avoiding damage, Shogun is very unpredictable and fluid on the feet, making him harder to defend against, and he has the kind of big power in his strikes that mean you cannot risk a single one landing clean, as even the nail-tough Quinton Jackson found out when an early knee caused the rib injury that essentially took him out of the fight.

Machida has a black belt in BJJ, but Shogun has the kind of cutthroat submission game that catches blackbelts. Shogun may not have the technical wizardry of a Demian Maia, but when a fighter fearlessly and ruthlessly attempts submissions like dropping for a heel hook on Chuck Liddell or rolling for an omoplata on ADCC champ Ricardo Arona, he gives himself the kind of opportunities that can change a fight in a heartbeat.

That said, Lyoto Machida is the champion for a reason. He has no real flaws in his game and he has laser-like focus that allows him to capitalize on an opponent’s errors while committing almost none of his own. His ability to find holes in opponents’ styles and habits and drive entire trucks of whup-ass through them makes him legitimately educative to watch. I expect Shogun will come out aggressively only to be met by counter fire at every turn, causing him to yet again seek trip takedowns and groundwork, only to be stymied by the fact that Machida is about 15 feet away from his opponent at any given time and can typically shrug off the times a fighter can actually clinch up with him. Shogun has never been knocked out, but 25 minutes is a very long time to spend in the cage. One day Lyoto Machida will lose, but it’s unlikely that it will be this day. Lyoto Machida by TKO round 3.

Ben Rothwell (+280) vs. Cain Velasquez (-295)

It’s truly amazing how fickle the MMA community is. In the view of some, because Cain Velasquez was knocked down momentarily by MASSIVE shots directly to the chin from a very dangerous striker, he suddenly has no chin and no defense. These same fools also think that, because Cain, after stopping his first five opponents, did not stop a fighter that is very nearly bulletproof, he is a lay-and-pray fighter with no power.

The reality, of course, is that Cain has an iron chin if he can bounce back from legitimate kill-shots from a guy like Kongo, especially since those shots were about as clean and hard as it’s possible to be hit. Furthermore, Kongo, for all his shortcomings, is as durable as some kind of robot, and would have been finished if the third round of the fight had gone on for another minute. Velasquez may be very inexperienced, but he is an outstanding wrestler, with phenomenal cardio, a great chin, and the kind of ground and pound that grinds fighters up and snowballs to a late stoppage.

Rothwell is a huge guy, cutting to make 265, so he will have a 30 or 40 pound weight advantage on the 240-lb Velasquez. Although much of that weight advantage is additional fat, and this Rothwell won’t be significantly stronger than Velasquez, Rothwell does put the weight behind his punches very well, letting him truly hit like a 280lb man, to traditionally devastating effect. However, Rothwell is also slow and lumbering as a consequence, which, combined with punches that are heavier than they are clean, mean he will have a much harder time landing on a quick and mobile Velasquez than someone with the speed, reach, and crisp technique of a Cheick Kongo.

Rothwell does have the power to seriously hurt Cain, if he can connect, but Cain has pretty good head movement, as he showed against the slow and wild Denis Stojnic. Furthermore, Rothwell will have very few opportunities to land on Cain, as he will be repeatedly and quickly taken down. Ben had trouble stopping takedowns from Arlovski and Nelson, both of whom combined would still represent a worse wrestler than Cain.

On the ground, Cain has excellent control, using his riding ability to continually deliver punishment against fighters with poor ground skills. Rothwell is an experienced enough veteran to defend himself, but he’s not going to be able to throw up some kind of submission on Cain or stall enough to merit a standup. Any round he gets taken down in is a round he loses and takes a big amount of damage on the ground. Rothwell is a very tough fighter, but he’s also very used to being the bully and may run out of gas from trying to defend himself, so a TKO stoppage late in the fight is the likely outcome. Cain Velasquez via TKO round 3.

Josh Neer (+150) vs. Gleison Tibau (-190)

Tibau is a flake. He has run hot and cold throughout his UFC career, so it is hard to tell what Tibau will show up. Neer is an all-rounder that fights with reckless abandon and has the kind of toughness that takes the heart right out of opponents, as he did against Mac Danzig. Occasionally, as against Diaz and Pellegrino, his tendency to get out of position costs him rounds and a fight, but he is very tough and otherwise difficult to pick up significant points on. He has a very dangerous submission game, and while his strikes are little more than clubbing caveman blows, he can take a tremendous amount of punishment and throw back more than most opponents can endure.

Tibau showed some improved standup against Clementi, but he can’t bang with Neer. Neer has a solid chin and fights like he has absolutely nothing to lose and doesn’t care about being hurt. Tibau is an enormous guy for lightweight, but he doesn’t seem to have a significant strength advantage, so he won’t be able to simply overwhelm Neer and force a submission. He’s still dangerous enough to catch one, even on a skilled grappler like Neer, if Neer makes a mistake, but Tibau’s best chance is to run a takedown and control game on Neer.

This should be a tough, competitive fight, with both fighters having the opportunity to make a statement. Neer’s takedown defense will likely be enough to make Tibau have to work very hard to bring the fight to the floor, which will wear him out and allow Neer to accumulate damage with strikes. In the end, I think it will be close, but Tibau will not have enough success to win more rounds than he loses. Josh Neer by decision.

Spencer Fisher (+200) vs. Joe Stevenson (-245)

I had underestimated Joe Stevenson and Fisher both going into their last fights. Both showed improvements I didn’t think they would ever make. Against Caol Uno, Fisher finally showed improved takedown defense, which is what had plagued his career to that point. Stevenson, after training with the near-mythical Greg Jackson, showed the kind of improvement that is often expected from fighters training with a new, top-level camp, that so rarely materializes. He made a 180 degree return from fighting away from his limited strengths and employing no strategy to fighting an intelligent fight and capitalizing on his versatility, while simultaneously showing improvement in the areas he had long been stagnant.

Fisher has a big advantage on the feet here, as Stevenson has never shown any real ability to threaten with his boxing, whereas Fisher has a very deep repertoire of strikes and throws them all with nasty power. Unless Stevenson can reliably get this fight to the ground, he’s going to get beat up until he catches something big that puts him away.

Fortunately for Stevenson, he has one of the biggest takedown arsenals in the game; rather than getting stuck in a stuffed single-leg against the fence, he will not hesitate to roll into a spladle or some other finishing technique to get his man down. If Fisher’s takedown defense really has improved by leaps and bounds, Stevenson will have to use every trick in the book to get him down, and, while Fisher’s takedown defense has always been a bit limp, he’s no fish on the ground, so Stevenson will have extreme difficulty in finishing him unless Fisher dives straight into that crushing guillotine, although Fisher’s very weak skin makes a cut likely. It’s only by the narrowest of margins, but Stevenson should be able to get enough control to win rounds. Joe Stevenson by decision.

If you’re a strong believer in Fisher’s newfound takedown defense, he’s an excellent play. I’m going to be more conservative, however, and adopt a wait-and-see approach to a match between two fighters that looked unexpectedly good, to see if they can keep it up.

Anthony Johnson (-315) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+300)

Johnson is absurdly enormous for 170, weighing as much as 220 when he doesn’t have an upcoming fight. He uses this strength to do things like shrug off takedown attempts and crush Tom Speer into a origami version of himself. However, when the cut goes wrong, he gets handled by the likes of Rich Clementi. Yoshida is a skilled and well-rounded fighter, but it’s hard to believe in someone after they are utterly slain as Yoshida was against Koscheck.

Johnson’s takedown defense and power may be masking a continued deficiency in his submission defense, as he either throws opponents off or beats them senseless before they get a chance to school him like Clementi did. Yoshida is a savvy grappler with a solid repertoire of submissions, although he prefers ground-and-pound. Working in his favor is the fact that his takedowns come from a judo base, which will be a different look for Johnson than the traditional freestyle wrestling he is used to defending against. It will be very difficult to contain Johnson, especially as Yoshida uses a freewheeling and aggressive style rather than an airtight control game on the ground, but he could easily win this fight if he can toss or trip Johnson to the floor. On the whole, however, Johnson is just too explosive not to fend off Yoshida and beat him up most of the time. Anthony Johnson by KO round 2.

While Johnson is definitely the favorite, I feel +300 is putting too little weight on Yoshida’s skills, so a small bet is a good value.

Ryan Bader (-435) vs. Eric Schafer (+355)

It’s very simple. Bader hits harder, is better on the feet, and has much better takedowns. Schafer doesn’t take damage well (being stopped by Bonnar and Bisping is all the proof of that you need) and is a top-position grappler that won’t ever be able to take top position. Unless Bader completely falls asleep at the wheel, he should be able to punished Schafer on the feet, take him down, and pound him out. Schafer will catch him if he makes some huge blunder, but he doesn’t have the guard game to seriously slow down Bader. Ryan Bader by TKO round 1.

Patrick Barry (-105) vs. Antoni Hardonk (-120)

This fight is going to be a complete gong show. Barry has UFC 1 level ground skills (and no, I’m not talking about Royce) and is about five feet tall, but has legitimate high-level kickboxing skills. Hardonk looks like a complete zombie when he wrestles or grapples, but he does have some jiu-jitsu, which will be more than enough to submit Barry unless he’s made big improvements. Hardonk also has the size to knock over the diminutive Barry and start the submissions.

The most interesting part of this match is going to be the striking. Hardonk is supposed to be a very good kickboxer, but his K-1 experience mainly consisted of getting knocked out, and Eddie Sanchez and Cheick Kongo nearly caved in his face. There’s no doubt that he hits extremely hard and has brutal leg kicks, but he hasn’t matched up well against big hitters, even those that throw like Sanchez does. It wouldn’t be shocking at all if Barry roughed him up and dropped him, although if Barry goes into Hardonk’s guard, he could very well get swept in embarrassing fashion. Patrick Barry by TKO round 1.

This is a very high-variance fight, since Barry could easily get KO’d by the power of Hardonk or get armbarred on the ground, but he should have a significant striking advantage and represents a good play. I’d suggest holding off until just before the fight, as I expect the line to move towards Hardonk.

Yushin Okami (-220) vs. Chael Sonnen (+195)

Two of the most defensive, control-oriented fighters in the division will unsurprisingly struggle against each other on the undercard. Okami is a more well-rounded fighter, with acceptable standup and some submission offense, but Sonnen’s wrestling game should not be underestimated. If Sonnen can get takedowns at will, he shouldn’t have much problem cruising to victory against Okami.

However, Okami is more than a simple wrestler, and he’s a very experienced opponent. If he tests himself against Sonnen and cannot match his wrestling, he will be able to work other games: staying away and using his reach to control the cage, or clinching Sonnen into the fence, where Okami can use his height, size, and strength to control and wear down Sonnen with physicality. In the end, Sonnen, despite his wrestling, has too many other weaknesses for Okami not to be able to take this fight off of him. Yushin Okami by decision.

Rob Kimmons (-110) vs. Jorge Rivera (-120)

Rivera is on the way out, and Kimmons will help him. Rivera is pretty old at this point, but he’s still strong and has power. His submission defense has never been sterling, and Kimmons is an aggressive and skilled submission artist. Unless Rivera puts on a masterclass of defending takedowns and working him over in the clinch, Kimmons will get him down eventually and submit him. Rob Kimmons by submission round 1.

Razak Al-Hassan (+130) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (-160)

Amazingly ridiculous-looking armbar victim Al-Hassan returns to determine once and for all if he’s someone that’s cartoonishly unprepared for high-level professional fighting or if he just suffered from stage fright under the bright lights. Kingsbury looks the part well enough, but he failed to get a single win in his entire TUF career, losing to Bader, Soszynski, and Lawlor. He’s athletic, but he hasn’t really shown he has much else to offer aside from some power in his hands. Al-Hassan was billed as a grappler, but he looked completely lost on the ground, even drawing an “Oh Man!” from Joe Rogan during a moment of spectacular ineptness.

So then, the fight will probably come down to whoever has the sharper and harder standup. Against Steven Cantwell, Al-Hassan had a very unusual style, almost pure TaeKwonDo, which got him hit a lot but kept Cantwell backing up. Kingsbury isn’t as strong defensively as Cantwell is, so expect Al-Hassan to have more success and beat Kingsbury up. However, with such porous defense, don’t be surprised if Kingsbury is able to blast him down and out. Either way, it won’t go past the first round. Razak Al-Hassan by KO round 1.

I think this fight is going to be a real mess, so I’m only making a small play on Hassan

Stefan Struve (+185) vs. Chase Gormley (-225)

Struve is a 14 year old on stilts. He’s 6’11”, but only weighs around 240. Despite his height, Struve still gets hit square in the face by much shorter opponents, and has no sense of distance at all. He has good submission skills, and can throw some decent strikes, but he’s seriously handicapped by the lack of defense. Gormley is taking a big step up in competition here, previously fighting complete cans, but with his punching power and wrestling, this is a very winnable fight for him. The one thing he’ll have to watch out for is Struve’s submission chops. Chase Gormley by TKO round 1.

I think the most likely outcome is Gormley bashes Struve up, but when someone is taking a big step up in competition and facing someone with real finishing skills, this becomes close to a 50/50 fight, so there’s good value in a play on Struve at these odds.

My plays:

.5u on Yoshiyuki Yoshida at (+300) to win 1.5u
1u on Josh Neer at (+150) to win 1.5u
1u on Stefan Struve at (+185) to win 1.85u
.5u on Al-Hassan at (+130) to win .65u