By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
With the much more limited event space of the WEC product combined with its stranglehold on MMA’s smaller weightclasses, WEC 45 is again a card that is chock-full of top-ten divisional talent in fights with instant title implications. Cerrone vs. Ratcliff could be considered a direct title eliminator, while the winners of the two bantamweight fights on the main card will likely be put in such an eliminator if not directly into a title fight.
Furthermore, fans have learned by now that the lighter weight classes provide constant action and entertainment, and the fighters featured in this event are some of the most exciting in those divisions, so this is definitely a must-watch event.
Donald Cerrone (-370) vs. Ed Ratcliff (+375) 
Cerrone is a versatile striker with super-slick grappling skills and an iron chin. Unfortunately he also has more balls than brains once the bell rings and prefers all-out slugfests to any kind of gameplan. That’s great news for Ed Ratcliff, who is a massively one-dimensional karate fighter and has little chance to win outside of pure striking exchanges.
Ratcliff gives up his back and is a mediocre wrestler at best, and his submission defense leaves much to be desired. Cerrone, for all his ability to snatch a submission from thin air, has historically had very poor wrestling himself, although he did show some improvements against Benson Henderson. In a match between two poor wrestlers, gravity favors the guy that wants the fight on the floor. If Cerrone’s brain re-engages at some point during the fight, he should be able to drag Ratcliff, who gives up the clinch too easily, to the floor for some grappling exchanges that end up with him being choked in short order.
On the feet, Cerrone definitely has the chops to engage and come out on top, but his defensive liabilities are cause for concern. Cerrone has never met a punch he didn’t want to take square in his face, and Ratcliff throws hard. Cerrone has shown that he can absorb a tremendous amount of punishment, but some of the techniques Ratcliff throws, like his crazy spinning heel kicks, have the kind of power that threatens to decapitate an opponent should they land cleanly. If Cerrone just mindlessly strikes with Ratcliff and does so in a cavalier fashion, he stands a good chance of getting knocked out.
It will be hard for this fight not to go to the ground, however, so even if it means Cerrone is crumpled by a superman punch and Ratcliff goes into his guard to try to finish him off, Cerrone can still lock up a triangle or armbar. Cerrone by submission round 1.
at +375 I am taking Ratcliff for a small play because I cannot overlook the combination of Cerrone’s defensive liabilities and Ratcliff’s power.
Chris Horodecki (+165)vs. Anthony Njokuani (-180)
Chris Horodecki came to be seen as a wunderkid during his stellar run in the IFL, where he racked up a number of wins in a row, mostly beating up lower-tier competition, where his athletic gifts and decent hand skills made him look like a striking phenom in the making. Unfortunately for Horodecki, the wheels fell off when he was absolutely crushed by a schoolyard bully type move from Ryan Schultz.
Njokuani, on the other hand, received little hype prior to his WEC debut (a loss to current champ Benson Henderson) but has demonstrated that he has legit muay thai skills and the physical tools to dump said skills all over unprepared opponent’s faces.
In this fight Horodecki will be giving up size, power, and reach to an opponent that outclasses him technically on the feet. In situations where his standup is outmatched, Horodecki has traditionally relied on ground-and-pound, but against a fighter with Njokuani’s reach and ability to intelligently control distance, the “Polish Hammer” will have a great deal of difficulty working his lukewarm takedowns and keep-busy ground-and-pound.
Unless Horodecki has greatly stepped up his game, Njokuani is going to have him eating out of the wrong side of his face for the next month. Njokuani by KO round 2.
I think Horodecki is being over-valued here because of his name, and there is a bit of money to be made on Njokuani’s brutal striking skills.
Joseph Benavidez (-155) vs. Rani Yahya (+155)
This is a battle between two of the smallest fighters in the WEC, and neither one of them is very large even for the tiny bantamweight class. Benavidez makes up for his other physical shortcomings with blinding speed, a diverse skill-set, and great endurance, whereas Yahya relies entirely on the fact that he is one of the greatest grapplers the weight class has ever seen, even if he’s completely one-dimensional and doesn’t have great cardio, often wearing himself out trying to finish opponents if they can defend his initial surge.
Benavidez brings a massive striking advantage to this bout, since Yahya has absolutely no striking, but Benavidez doesn’t have a lot of power, so he’ll have to rely on accumulating damage on the fairly fragile Yahya. The biggest concern for Benavidez has to be the fact that Yahya has the kind of jiu-jitsu that can finish a fight if any mistake is made at any time.
If Benavidez fights a smart fight, he should be able to move around Yahya and pepper him with strikes, and use his phenomenal scrambling ability to get away and open up distance again if Rani gets a hold of any part of his body. As Yayha slows down due to accumulated damage and the inability to control the pace of the fight, Benavidez can turn up the heat until Yahya is overwhelmed for a stoppage. Benavidez by TKO round 2.
Scott Jorgensen (+145) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (-155)
In contrast to Yahya vs. Benavidez, this bout features two of bantamweight’s tiny titans, with serious physical power and size for the division. Jorgensen has the explosive power that is so favored in the sport, but Mizugaki is very strong and will have a significant height and reach advantage. Mizugaki has the technically refined striking to make use of that, too, with good, long punches and kicks. Jorgensen is no slouch on the feet either, but he’s one of those fighters, as you often see in MMA, that is far better offensively than defensively. Jorgensen throws dangerous punches, but defensively he primarily relies on his solid chin. Unless he has improved his blocking, footwork, or other defensive tools, Mizugaki will land on him solidly in every exchange, as many of Jorgensen’s previous opponents were able to do, although Jorgensen still emerged (mostly) victorious due to his chin and power.
Jorgensen can also operate as a ground-and-pound fighter, with his wrestling background, but Mizugaki has shown that he has solid wrestling skills and can handle himself on the ground, so it’s unlikely that Jorgensen can find that a reliable path to victory.
After his knockout loss to Kenji Osawa (not known for being a big hitter) there were concerns about Mizugaki’s chin, as he didn’t even seem to have been struck particularly hard, but he also survived a five-round slugfest with hard-hitting Miguel Torres, so the jury is still out. Jorgensen’s hard-hitting go-forward style will definitely try to test Mizugaki’s chin, but if Mizugaki can stay behind his reach and protect himself, he should be able to win this even if his chin isn’t likely to survive another slugfest with Torres. Takeya Mizugaki by decision.
Erik Koch (+145) vs. Jameel Massouh (-165)
Massouh has been matched up very hard so far in the WEC, but in Koch he finally has an opponent that’s closer to his level and not a well-established commodity. Koch has managed to rack up 7 wins in a row over low-level opposition in regional shows, but he’s likely run into a brick wall in Massouh.
Koch relies on his wrestling and slick grappling to dominate opponents and pick up submission wins, but against Massouh he’ll find that it takes a lot more work to get takedowns and dominant position, to say nothing of the difficulties he will face on the feet.
Massouh is simply a much more well-rounded fighter than Koch has ever had to deal with, and Koch will find him too much to deal with in any aspect of the game. Jameel Massouh by decision.
With the striking advantage Massouh will have as well as his wrestling, I think Koch has too much to deal with before he can even being to try grappling, where I expect Massouh could hold his own as well. I think Massouh represents a solid bet at -165.
my plays:
.25u on Ed Ratcliff at (+375) to win .94u
3.8u on Njokuani at (-180) to win 2u
1.65u on Massouh at (-165) to win 1u
