By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
Zuffa’s second-class citizens meet for another criminally under-appreciated card that tries to make use of a diminished posterboy to sell a little-liked champion and a relatively unknown interim champion while sorting out a division that has been in a bit of a mess. Also in store for fight fans, as always, the WEC will let fresh faces challenge for the right to join the premiere ranks of the sport.
Champ Jamie Varner (-145) vs. interim champ Benson Henderson (+115) (to unify lightweight title) 
Jamie Varner has been on the shelf for a long time, talking trash to Donald Cerrone and garnering more hate from fans that didn’t like the way that fight ended. Benson Henderson has been dilligently working on his game and grinding his way up the ladder, all while maintaining a very wholesome and clean-cut image. Pretty clear heel vs. face matchup here, and the fight might just play out like a pro-wrestling match would.
Early on, Varner’s hands make him a big threat to bust up Henderson. Benson is improving his standup, but Varner has legit skills, and his wrestling is much better than Cerrone’s was, so Benson can’t just dump him down effortlessly whenever he tries to throw. So the early going could very well see the heel bruising up the face, with things looking bad for our hero.
However, Varner has never had great cardio, and fighters coming off injuries and long layoffs are rarely in top form in their first return fight, so if Bendo (I love that nickname) can make it through the first 7 or 8 minutes of the fight, either through simple toughness and willpower, or with takedowns and control, Varner will gas out, and Benson can take control, for the epic resurgence of the hero to overcome the villain.
If Benson can wear him down by that point, it’s unlikely Varner sticks around for all 5 rounds. Against Cerrone, even an exhausted Varner could get desperation takedowns and rest on top, but that will simply not happen against a wrestler like Henderson. It’s a terrible thing to be tired in a fight and underneath someone with the energy to keep attacking you. Unless Varner gets a KO early (a possibility, as Shane Roller nearly did it) then Benson is going to make him want to quit and just grind him out of there at some point. Benson by TKO round 4.
It’s an easy choice to pick against someone that has cardio problems in such a light division in a 5 round fight. Regardless of your feelings about the main personally, Varner’s skills have to be respected, and he has a clear way to win, but Henderson should have a wrestling advantage and a cardio advantage, making him a good play as an underdog.
Raphael Assuncao (+375) vs. Urijah Faber (-385) 
This fight should develop very interestingly. It’s a wonderful measuring stick for where each man stands. Assuncao was a highly touted prospect that has, so far, won all the fights he was expected to win, but his struggles against Massouh and Jabouin indicate that he may not yet be ready for the tip-top of the division. Faber was regarded as the uncrowned featherweight king for a long time, but at that point the division was very disorganized and he fought few quality challengers. From Faber’s fights with Brown is became clear that, while he was a top-flight featherweight, he was merely one among several fighters of that caliber. Now we get to see if Assuncao is ready to join that club.
Stylistically, Assuncao provides an interesting foil to Faber. The California Kid wins on his speed, dynamic style, and risk-taking, but Raphael is solid in every aspect of the game, so he can meet Faber wherever Faber decides to engage with him. If Faber tries to use his speed to sneak in single shots on the feet, Assuncao has a good chin and can throw back hard. If Faber tries to wrestle, Assuncao may be a bit bigger than he is, and could possibly get the better of the scrambles, although he is slower. In grappling exchanges, Assuncao has a more fundamentally sound game, but Faber may have an advantage with his creativity and playmaker ability to create an opportunity for something out of nothing.
While this fight is competitive and could be winnable for Assuncao, all the advantages are (slightly) in Faber’s favor. His speed and scramble game should keep Assuncao off balance, and the three round structure, despite Faber’s immense cardio, works in his favor as it reduces the number of chances he’ll have to take a boneheaded risk and throw the fight away. Faber will really have to dominate here to make me believe in a title fight for him against Aldo, and that would probably require a submission finish. Assuncao is just too tough to make putting him away likely though, so my pick is Faber by decision.
I think Assuncao at +375 is madness, and I was happy to get a little action on him at +475. Faber is clearly the favorite, but the chance for Assuncao to win could present itself, and he has the skills to take it. Working against him is the fact that, just as he can meet Faber on any front and hold his own, Faber can compete in every aspect of Raphael’s game, so it will be difficult to capitalize. Thus, I’ve made this a small play.
Dave Jansen (-167) vs. Kamal Shalorus (+165)
Shalorus is young to the sport, but he’s actually fairly old, being somewhere in his 30’s (although exactly how old is unknown, since he doesn’t know his own birthdate). He’s still in his athletic prime though, and is an extremely dangerous and explosive fighter. If Jansen cannot contain him early, he could get busted up badly. Shalorus should have a wrestling advantage, and has enough grappling experience to keep from getting submitted while in Jansen’s guard and attacking. The danger to Kamal is twofold: if he ends up underneath Jansen, he is in very dire straits, and he has historically had poor cardio, so failing to finish Jansen early could be a big problem.
Kamal has big potential, and I think, if he works diligently on his game and fixes his cardio, this is a winnable fight for him. However, the best indicators of future performance are generally past performances, and the most reasonable expectation for Shalorus is a heavy initial storm, followed by a decline until Jansen locks in a submission. Dave Jansen by submission round 3.
This is an interesting case for betting. When Shalorus opened at +245, I recommended a play on him, due to his potential for the knockout and ability to dominate positionally with his wrestling. However, he does have a clear way to lose (gassing out) and the line has massively shifted. As such, I was able to make a play on Jansen at (-167) that will recoup any losses I may have on Shalorus, while if Kamal wins, it will cover my losses on Jansen and provide a profit, meaning a potential profit with no risk, or a “free roll” of metaphorical dice. That’s a good demonstration the importance of following lines early and often!
Mike Brown (-800) vs. Anthony Morrison (+610)
In “cheesesteak” Morrison (fighting out of Philadelphia, of course) has one of the best nicknames going in the sport today. Unfortunately, that’s the only advantage he’ll have over Brown. The former champion is the very model of a solid fighter and will be very hard to get one over on or put away. Unless Brown makes the mistake of just standing in front of Morrison and trying to land huge punches, he should be able to take this with a basic plan of putting his weight on Cheesesteak, trying to work top position, and wearing him down with strength and punishment. Eventually this will soften him up for the submission. Mike Brown by submission round 1.
Mackens Semerzier (-140) vs. Deividas Taurosevicius (+120)
Now that more people are paying attention to him, it has become clear that Mackens Semerzier is a talented young fighter as well as a careful study, and his triangle upset of Wagnney Fabiano was not a complete fluke (although still a product of Waggney underestimating his ground skills). Deividas has not shown the same kind of talent, and having been out-struck by Javier Vazquez, will be undone by the standup game Mackens brings to the table. Mackens by TKO round 2.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Akitoshi Tamura (-125) vs. Charlie Valencia (-105)
Tamura is a very good grappler that can kick, but can’t wrestle. Valencia is a speck of a man that can wrestle and has some power in his hands. Unfortunately for him, he will have trouble getting past the kicks of Tamura, and if he gets a takedown, Tamura will outclass him on the ground. Unless Valencia has perfect top control (like Wagnney Fabiano had) or just manages to get inside and outbox Tamura soundly, he’s not going to be able to win a round or do enough offense to finish the fight. Tamura by decision.
Bryan Caraway (+175) vs. Mark Hominick (-190)
Striker vs. Wrestler. Hominick plays the striker, but he’s one of those unfortunate types that doesn’t have big single-hit power (which is more OK in boxing and kickboxing than MMA, where one’s striking opportunities can be so much more limited) but does have a fairly well-rounded game and should be able to defend himself against Caraway, who doesn’t have the ground chops of Hioki, Brown, or Yahya (some of the men who have submitted Hominick in the past). I think Hominick’s ability to continually score points on the feet and stay in the driver’s seat of the fight that way will carry the day. Mark Hominick by decision.
Wagnney Fabiano (-575) vs. Clint Godfrey (+425)
With the embarrassing loss to Mackens Semerzier and teammate Jose Aldo blocking him from any title hopes in the near term, Fabiano has made the drop down to 135, where he should be a large man indeed. Fabiano has a great chin, and some decent leg kicks and hands too, with a lethal top game, although he can be a bit glacial on top against opponents with strong defensive skills. Godfrey doesn’t have the kind of grappling to hang with Fabiano on the ground, and is mostly just a welcome mat to a new division.
So, Fabiano in a tune-up fight against an opponent he should pave on the mat. Where have I seen this before? Unless Fabiano is the reincarnation of Roan Carneiro and insists on massively underperforming for the rest of his career, he should avoid being surprise-triangled again in this fight and likely advance position to set up another arm-triangle choke. Fabiano by submission round 3.
George Roop (+230) vs. Eddie Wineland (-275)
Roop is making an astonishing adjustment here, dropping out of the UFC’s 155lb division, giving 145 a complete pass, and attempting to make 135. Since he’s at least 3 inches taller than Miguel Torres, who has the upper body of an 11-year-old, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he completely fails to make weight or displays the typical symptoms of drastic weight cuts in the fight, especially wearing down in later rounds.
Wineland is not a great fighter, and neither is Roop, so if Roop comes in in decent shape, this could be a good, competitive fight. On the feet, Roop has okayish hands and a ton of reach, but Wineland has a bit of real striking and a good deal more power, so an enervated Roop could very well get starched. However, with Roop’s wrestling and superior ground technique, with his reach insulating him from Wineland’s power, he does have a chance of making a real fight of it or catching a sub. Due to a lock of faith in Roop’s weight-cutting acumen, the pick must be Wineland by TKO round 2.
I think that Roop is not being given enough credit at +230, and may have the size and skills to win here, so he’s good for a small play.
Will Campuzano (-110) vs. Coty Wheeler (-108)
Campuzano is coming off being completely monstered by wrecking machine Damacio Page, but here he won’t be threatened with the prospect of having his head removed from his shoulders. Wheeler is a very aggressive grappler, and Campuzano takes wild swings and gets far out of position, so you can expect to see some wild scrambles here. Campuzano is a good enough grappler to defend on the ground and has enough of an advantage on the feet that eventually his wild swings will land and score some points, if not a knockout. Campuzano by decision.
My Plays
.5u on Roop at (+230) to win 1.15u
.25u on Assuncao at (+475) to win 1.19u
1u on Henderson at (+115) to win 1.15u
Freeroll on Kamal Shalorus to win .5u
