Fight Picks and Predictions for UFN 20: Big Favorites, Big Wins?

By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)

There’s no overarching story to Ultimate Fight Night 20, except the story that it has none. There’s no one big name or big fight put here for our consumption. The name is the UFC, the big fight is their product. Zuffa’s baby has reached the point where its shows are fully commoditized and we, the fans, simply expect another gleaming new product to be extruded for our consumption every few weeks. That’s certainly a development that merits serious consideration.

From a betting perspective, this is a very boring card. There’s a lot of big favorites that are most likely going to win, but require too much chalk for my tastes. A parlay on some combination of Maynard, Escudero, Catone, Harris, Simpson, and dos Anjos would probably be reasonable, though.

Nate Diaz ( +245) vs. Gray Maynard (-295)

This fight has the potential to be a real snoozer, and Maynard should aim for that and not succumb to the pressure to go wild in trying to put on a show as the main event. While Maynard has improved his striking and Diaz isn’t a lights-out killer on the feet, unless Maynard has greatly improved his striking and can make it nearly completely one-sided, there’s no real point to exchanging with a guy you can’t knock out.

No, Maynard needs to dance with the girl he brought to the dance, and that’s his monstrous wrestling and ground control. Diaz came off TUF with a string of impressive come-from-behind submissions, but his more recent opponents have played a more cautious game and his physical weakness, inability to defend a takedown, and willingness to completely give up position to attempt a submission or big strike have combined to cost him a couple of decisions.

The script for this fight is fairly clear. As Maynard closes the distance with strikes, Diaz will plant and attempt to shorten up his punches and catch Maynard coming in. Unless he lands a perfect strike or Maynard has a much worse chin than we think, this will end with Diaz getting dumped to the mat by a big takedown, and Maynard getting ineffectually frozen in his guard until he is stood up to repeat the process, although there may be a round where Maynard tries to work his standup exclusively. Gray Maynard by decision.

Evan Dunham (+210) vs. Efrain Escudero (-255)

Escudero was really impressive in his last fight. His defensive skills completely obliterated the reach advantage of Cole Miller, and his hands knocked him down and out like a 7th grader punched by the class bully. Dunham doesn’t have the ground skills of Miller, but he’s much more dangerous on the feet, so this will be a good test of how good Escudero’s head movement and footwork really is at avoiding punishment. I think that Escudero is the real deal on the feet, and with his ground skills to back him up in a pinch. I think that Escudero should be the better wrestler here and should find an opportunity to do some damage and win rounds. Escudero by decision.

Tom Lawlor (+250) vs. Aaron Simpson (-310)

Aaron Simpson is really something special. He’s part of the new breed of wrestlers with uncoachable natural power that makes them dangerous standing and in dominant positions. Lawlor is a solid fighter, but he’ll be knocked silly on the feet here and he can’t outwrestle Simpson, so the best he could hope for is ending up on the bottom. Unless Lawlor can rip some kind of submission from a standing position, that’s all there is to it. Lawlor is going to have to deal with Simpson’s power, and he can’t. Simpson by KO round 1.

Brad Blackburn (+135) vs. Amir Sadollah (-150)

This is a challenging fight for the Amir, the Burger Prince. Brad Blackburn is athletic and well-rounded, with his major weakness being that he can’t seem to win a third round. That seems to match up well with Amir’s penchant for come-from-behind victories, as a fading Blackburn would be easy pickings for a resurgent Amir. However, to come-from-behind, one has to be behind, and Amir’s habit of slow starts and taking damage does not bode well.

Blackburn has good kicks and punches, with a lot of power in them. If Johnny Hendricks is capable of dropping Amir (premature stoppage or not) Blackburn can rock his world early on. Furthermore, Amir was not the most impressive in his win over Phil Baroni, with the early bits of that fight (before Phil gassed) being disappointingly even.

It wouldn’t be shocking at all to see Amir get caught and absolutely lamped by a big hook, but if he can make it through the first two rounds, and Blackburn fights and gasses as he always has, then Amir could pick up the third round and lose 29-28, or he could win via a stoppage. That’s a lot of “ifs” working against an inexperienced Amir. Brad Blackburn by decision.

I like a bet on Blackburn at +135. There’s too many ways for him to take control with a striking and wrestling advantage, even if he’s only really there for two rounds.

PRELIMINARY CARD

Chris Leben (-160) vs. Jay Silva (+135)

This should be an exciting, and possibly very sad, fight. Leben’s last performance was terrible; he looked like he was ill and hadn’t even trained. Thus, even though I think if he prepares he wins this fight, there’s a lot of uncertainty and the possibility he gets obliterated.

Silva is certainly a fighter you don’t want to be anything but sharp against. He isn’t the world’s greatest striker, but he is accurate, extremely aggressive, and powerful. If Leben has been drinking himself out of shape again, he’s likely to get his jaw cracked by a flying knee or some similar wildness. If Leben is at all prepared, though, his rock solid chin should insulate him from Silva’s single-shot sniper offense, and the power in Leben’s hands shouldn’t be underestimated.

Both of these men gas in later rounds, but Leben has better wrestling chops, so he can wear Silva down with his horrible cage clinching and foot-stomping antics. I wouldn’t be shocked to see another gasfest KO like the Terry Martin fight. Leben really needs to be impressive in this fight to retain any relevance in this division, and Silva takes the kind of risks that can result in an impressive KO for either fighter. Chris Leben by KO round 2 (but don’t be surprised if he gets his skull split)

When Silva opened as a much larger dog, I recommended a play, but now I think they best thing you can do is play Leben to cut down your risk on Silva, and just freeroll on Silva in hopes that Leben is unprepared

Jesse Lennox (+222) vs. Rick Story (-265)

Yawn. Another fight where someone will get outwrestled and lose because of it. Story is just plain better than Lennox. Rick Story by decision.

Nik Lentz (+180) vs. Thiago Tavares (-220)

Tavares still hasn’t quite lived up to the potential we saw glimpses of in his virtuoso destruction of the then-overrated Jason Black, and has generally been inconsistent and overall looked like a man that was put into the UFC and top competition too early in his career. Tavares has also seemed to be a bit vulnerable to being hit and rocked badly, so he may have some chin issues.

Lentz, however, doesn’t really have the right kind of game to put it on Tavares and hurt him and take him out of the fight. If he tries his standard wrestling-based game, Tavares will reverse and submit him, and on the feet he’ll get clocked. Thiago Tavares by submission, round 1.

Mike Guymon (+175) vs. Rory MacDonald (-200)

Guymon has been bouncing around the King of the Cage promotion for a long time (basically his entire career, and over 6 years) and is basically a seasoned journeyman. MacDonald is very young, having started fighting professionally at 16, but he has performed very well and has a lot more potential than a fighter like Guymon. While MacDonald will be tested here, he should be able to avoid takedowns and stay standing to use his advantage on the feet to beat up Guymon in a competitive fight. MacDonald by decision

Kyle Bradley (+325) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (-350)

It’s too bad dos Anjos can’t hit Bradley hard enough to knock that wretched tattoo off his chest. Bradley is a solid all-rounder, but Rafael is a legitimately gifted grappler, and he’s brought along his striking (especially the leg kicks) to the point where he’s not seriously threatened by the skills Bradley brings on the feet. If he can get takedowns, dos Anjos should be able to completely run game on Bradley. Dos Anjos by submission round 2.

Gerald Harris (-290) vs. John Salter (+240)

Salter is woefully inexperienced here (4-0 in his career, which only started 10 months ago!) and had almost no time to prepare for this fight. Harris seems to have beefed up his punching power and should be shockingly better than Salter’s previous opponents, who were spotty to say the least. While he comes in undefeated, Salter is woefully outmatched here and this fight borders on the ridiculous because of it. Harris by KO round 1.

Nick Catone (-200) vs. Jesse Forbes (+160)

Catone is coming off back-to-back losses to well-rounded and tough Tim Credeur and physically dominant wrestler Mark Munoz. Jesse Forbes is not the same caliber of opponent at all. He’s a big, physical wrestler, although his wrestling isn’t particularly outstanding, and has a glaring weakness in horrible cardio for a middleweight. Catone can probably come out and put a stomping on him from the bell, as Forbes isn’t very good off his back and Catone should be able to outwrestle him, but even if Forbes has some impressive offense early, he won’t have the wind to finish the show, and will end up getting beat down past the 4 minute mark or so. Catone by TKO round 1.

My Plays
1u on Brad Blackburn at (+135) to win 1.35u
Freeroll on Jay Silva for .5u