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This event is a microcosm of all of Strikeforces strengths and failures. They have some world-class fighters and a great platform to put them on. Unfortunately that’s about it for the strengths. In terms of failures, the fighters are matched up in ways that don’t make sense. The strongest fighter in the division isn’t contending for the title, instead you have a champion that most of the audience has never heard of and a challenger that most of the audience has most recently seen getting his block knocked off. You have two great fighters (Beerbohm and Shaolin) who not only have you not utilized, but who will not be televised, and you have the typical Strikeforce undercard of fighters who will never again compete in the promotion and serve no real purpose other than filler. On the plus side, there are inarguably some great fighters and some great fights, so MMA fans can enjoy that while Showtime executives who know nothing about MMA slowly choke the life out of this promotion.
Champ Alistair Overeem (-275) vs. Brett Rogers (+235) (for heavyweight title)
This fight is not an interesting style match up at all. Either Overeem is going to get KO’d at some point by a wayward shot, or Rogers is going to suffer one of three outcomes.
1) Overeem knocks him out standing. Overeem is a much technically better striker, so the only think keeping Rogers competitive is his enormous power and Overeems tendency to implode whenever he gets busted up. It’s not even a chin issue, as he rarely just falls over from the first shot. It’s an inability to recover issue, similar to what Frank Mir seems to have. When someone cracks him, he goes into a state of complete failure until the fight ends in some ridiculous fashion. That said, Overeem punches with big power now, and his knees could turn Rogers’ face inside out, and he’s more accurate.
2) If Rogers drives into the clinch (as he so often does while marching forward throwing big five or six punch combinations) then Overeem will use his criminally underrated clinch takedowns. This man can, on demand, throw anyone he gets underhooks in directly into side control. If he puts Rogers there, he can bring all his muscle to bear and mash him up with some ground and pound for a TKO.
3) Lastly, Overeem is still a walking gallows, and if Rogers lets his head get out of position in the clinch, he will get guillotined with no hesitation.
This should be an exciting fight in terms of action, since both guys are big finishers with a lot of firepower, but don’t expect to learn anything new. Alistair Overeem by knockout, round 1.
Andrei Arlovski (-175) vs. Antonio Silva (+160)
Are you a believer in Arlovski or aren’t you? The guy has mental problems that have plagued him, a glass jaw, and a body that seems perfect for the sport from the neck down. While it’s popular to pick him to lose by knockout every time he steps foot in the ring, he has victories over heavy hitters, so such a glib prediction is a little over-hasty. Yes, if Silva puts the boots to him the way he did against Werdum in the first round of their fight, Arlovski will have another out-of-body experience, but Arlovski is much more defensively astute than Werdum, and Silva was out-struck in the second and third rounds of that fight.
Arlovski has good power, and if Silva’s giant Moai head doesn’t get out of the way, he’s going to be knocked out. This is a good, competitive fight for both men. Andrei Arlovski by decision.
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (-600) vs. Joey Villasenor (+400)
Jacare has improved his striking, but questions linger about his chin. Villasenor is a solid second-tier fighter, with good power and okay boxing. This is a fight that Jacare should win by tossing Villasenor on his head, but Villasenor is game and if Jacare doesn’t take command of this fight, he could find himself waking up and thinking about going back to BJJ. This is a fight Jacare should win, but don’t be shocked if Villasenor gets the upset, as everything is in place for one. Jacare by submission, round 1.
A small flier on Villasenor seems worth it, since Jacare still hasn’t beaten a heavier striker than Zelg Galesic.
Roger Gracie (-450) vs. Kevin Randleman (+350)
Does anyone out there still have faith in Randleman at this point? If so, here’s the reality: it’s over. Randleman is done and has been for a long time. He can’t keep off his back, despite his wrestling, he’s got more wear and tear on his body than Rodrigo Nogueira, and the hole in his chest went all the way to his (already small) gas tank, which empties in under three minutes at this point.
Roger Gracie isn’t just a fancy name, he’s the most dominant grappler on the planet, remarkably having won both his own weight class and the open-weight division of the 2009 Mundials (which would be impressive on its own) and he did it but submitting every opponent (which is almost unheard of) and he submitted everyone with a collar choke from mount (which is otherworldly).
When a grappler first transitions to MMA, there are rightly questions about how they will do, regardless of pedigree, but this isn’t Roger’s first rodeo. He acquitted himself well in his first two MMA fights, although he hasn’t had to go deep. Luckily that’s not a concern in this fight as Randleman will be completely spent before Roger even gets a chance to start gassing out.
Even when he was in reasonably good physical condition, Randleman got keylocked half to death by Ron Waterman of all people, so you can expect a submission early in this fight, although it will likely end not with a bang, but a whimper. Roger Gracie by submission, round 1.
Antwain Britt (+150) vs. Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante (-150)
Cavalcante was anointed as the next big thing, and his bout with Mike Kyle was supposed to be nothing more than a warm-up before he was put in with the big boys. Unfortunately neither Kyle nor Cavalcante seemed to get the memo, and an unprepared Feijao got handled by a surprisingly game Kyle.
Antwain Britt is simply a powerhouse. The guy crushes what he punches, and he has a solid wrestling game to back that up, even if he has some defensive liabilities, especially in terms of submissions. If he puts his hands on Cavalcante in a serious way, this will turn into another Rout for the Brazilian.
Cavalcante still has the talent and striking acumen that many say, but he hasn’t shown that he takes the sport seriously and trains like a professional. Britt is a very serious threat, and hard work, punching power, and consistent performances should be favored over shaky talent any day. Britt by KO
+150 is a great price for Britt. He can KO Cavalcante standing (although he may be KO’d) and if he puts Feijao on the ground, he’s not getting up in one piece.
Lyle Beerbohm (+140) vs. Vitor Ribeiro (-160)
Both of these men are coming into this bout very hungry, perhaps even in a literal sense as they have been jerked around by Strikeforce and kept from plying their trade and earning the paychecks that feed their families. Both of them have been on the shelf since the Fall of 2009, which is especially unacceptable for a fighter that can stay as active as Beerhom has shown himself capable of.
This is a big step up for “Fancy Pants,” as he’s certainly not going to get Shaolin to tap to a bulldog choke like he did to Duane Ludwig. The former meth fiend has evolved into a well-rounded fighter with some real talent in addition to a good story and some cute pants his mom makes for him.
Shaolin hasn’t fought since looking very inert while being outpointed by Shinya Aoki in a lackluster striking-dominated fight. If Beerbohm is a careful study, he should be able to use his striking in a similar way to pick up the win, but one has to wonder how circumspect anyone with “former meth fiend” on their resume could be. If Shaolin comes in sharp and can staple Beerbohm to the floor, the arm triangle choke can’t be that far off. This fight really will just come down to which fighter has most judiciously used their forced time off to prepare for a fight. Beerbohm needs this more. Lyle Beerbohm by decision.
Beerbohm is at a big grappling disadvantage here, but this is a fight that either man could win, so this play fits with a high-volume strategy. Beerbohm could easily wear out and outstrike Shaolin if he has a good night.
My Plays:
1u on Britt at (+150) to win 1.5u
1u on Beerbohm at (+140) to win 1.4u
.25u on Villasenor at (+400) to win 1u
