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With Sengoku disentegrating and the money of the Katukogi boom long gone, Japanese MMA is in a very sad state, but Dream 14 is bucking the trend by being full of competitive, interesting matchups. Perhaps its lowered standards, as the “star power” on this card still consists of the animated corpse of Kazushi Sakuraba fighting some Gracie offspring and the always lamentable matchup of Ikuhisa Minowa (hero to anime freaks, basement-dwellers, and virgin WWF fans everywhere) against some incompetent hulk of a man.
Perhaps it’s just this death of star power that makes Dream 14 appealing to the MMA fan that doesn’t spend his days arguing on forums that Pride is still better than UFC or other such horrors. Since there is not a Bob Sapp available, nobody will get mad that matchmakers selected matchups that are competitive and appropriate. Even an also-ran like Miyata is appropriately matched against another fighter of similar skills, which really is the determining factor in watchable, enjoyable fights.
TStrikeforce champ Nick Diaz (-500) vs. Hayato Sakurai (+425) (non-title fight)
Sakurai doesn’t take MMA seriously, and hasn’t for a few years. Nick Diaz takes every fight deadly serious, whether it’s in a Strikeforce post-fight interview or a Wal-Mart parking lot. Sakurai wins these days when he fights someone he massively outclasses technically, or can finish someone early. He’s simply not going to knock out someone with a chin like Nick Diaz and there’s no way he finds a submission either. Diaz will boxercise all over this man’s face, probably until Sakurai falls over and gives up a submission. Sakurai can’t even exploit Diaz’s weak wrestling, because most of Sakurai’s takedowns come from Judo, and Diaz can defend those pretty well. Nick Diaz by submission, round 1.
Kazushi Sakuraba (-180) vs. Ralek Gracie (+175)
The Gracie Hunter bags another Gracie. Sakuraba shouldn’t be fighting. He has problems in his brain and his knees are completely shot. Fortunately Ralek is the worst kind of Gracie and won’t hit him hard or wrestle well. This fight will be a disappointment that mostly consists of Sakuraba shutting down Ralek’s offense and scoring a few strikes to win the fight. Sakuraba by decision.
Joachim Hansen (-275) vs. Hiroyuki Takaya (+225)
This fight is going to be a barnburner. Joachim Hansen is one of the most exciting fighters around, when an opponent is willing to engage him, and Takaya will have to live up to his nickname and will try to make this a streetfight. When that happens, Hansen has a ridiculously good chin and punches way above his weight, and Takaya is a good slugger, but does go down like most fighters if someone really cracks him. This should be a very exciting up and down fight, with Hansen eventually really cracking Takaya and finishing him off. Joachim Hansen by KO round 2.
Federico “Kiko” Lopez (+900) vs. Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto (-1100)
Kid Yamamoto has been shown to be fallible, mostly because he doesn’t care and just wanders around fishing for big punches. Against high level fighters like Joe Warren and Kanehara, this leads to Yamamoto being ineffective offensively and losing decisions. Lopez isn’t good enough for that. This man is coming off a 12 second KO loss to Chucky Mady. Kid might not look great, but this is the kind of fight where he can bully an opponent with his wrestling and punching power. When he lands, this is over. Kid Yamamoto by KO round 1.
Akiyo “Wicky” Nishiura (+130) vs. Hideo Tokoro (-140)
Tokoro is a bit like Kendall Grove. He’s lanky, well-rounded, and has pretty good offense that is handicapped by his inability to fight to his own betterment or take a shot. If Tokoro would adopt a more conservative game, he might not put on as many exciting fights, but he’d be caught in submissions or knocked out far less. Wicky Akiyo is not the most circumspect fighter himself, doing little more than running around throwing windmills, despite the fact that he’s not just an unschooled brawler and does have all-around skills. Fortunately for him, if one of those haymakers lands, it’ll be the end for Tokoro. Akiyo Nishiura by KO, round 3.
I think Wicky is a good bet here because of Tokoro’s poor chin.
Kazuyuki Miyata (+120) vs. Takafumi Otsuka (-130)
Miyata came into the weigh-ins in his typically freakishly low bodyfat, although he wasn’t as dark-and-crispy as usual in the fake tan department. He’s improved lately after a very long and rocky career, although he still mostly gets by on his extreme athleticism and wrestling. Takafumi Otsuka is similarly not a standout fighter, but a good and challenging match for Miyata, who will probably be able to positionally dominate to a closely-fought decision. Kazuyuki Miyata by decision.
Yoshiro Maeda (-275) vs. Kenji Osawa (+215)
Maeda should have this in the bag. He’s simply a better athlete and an all-around better fighter, but because he’s such a flake, and because Osawa is game and will not simply go away, there’s a chance Maeda throws this away. Luckily for Maeda, Osawa doesn’t have big offensive firepower, so any bonehead mistakes Maeda makes will not be enough to get him knocked out or submitted. Yoshiro Maeda by decision.
Imani Lee vs. Ikuhisa Minowa
It seems that bookmakers have finally learned not to offer lines on Minowa fights. When Minowa fights some enormous and fat kickboxer, it’s tempting to expect him to land yet another suspicious-looking reverse shrimplock, he’s strung together far too many victories in a row, so he’s due for another Zuluzinho-style beating. Imani Lee sucks, but he’s three times Minowa’s size. Eventually he has to put some power on Minowa and bash him up, right? Who cares. Imani Lee by TKO round 2.
My plays:
1u on Wicky Akiyo at (+130) to win 1.3u
