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The Ultimate Fighter 11: Team Liddell vs. Team Ortiz Finale, like all TUF finales, is very difficult to predict. Many of these fighters had never truly trained at a top-flight professional level, had real camps for fights, or worked with the caliber of training partners they now have. Going from training with a decent local gym to rolling with the big boys for months on end can result in drastic improvements, meaning that what we’ve previously seen of a fighter may be completely meaningless. Similarly, selective editing and the general bizzaro universe of reality television may have totally misrepresented a fighter. There are usually more surprises than not on these cards, and underdogs have traditionally been great bets.
This card is also difficult to handicap because many of the fighters are frankly not that good. Very few of these men will be in the UFC a year from now, and the winner of the show will struggle to stay relevant, since real UFC-level opposition will steamroll any of these men.
Matt Hamill (-145) vs. Keith Jardine (+115)
Who will fail the most in this fight? Each of these men has struggled at the top level due to personal peccadillos that they have never been able to get away from. Jardine’s terrible and unorthodox footwork and defense have led to him getting brutally KO’d in more than half of his fights since the impressive win over Forrest Griffin, almost always by left hooks. Hamill’s record doesn’t look nearly as brutal, despite the “win” over Jon Jones that consisted of Hamill’s face being utterly obliterated, but he has also failed to live up to his potential by virtue of never having a gameplan and just aimlessly swinging his arms around when he doesn’t want to manhandle someone and obliterate them.
Working in Hamill’s favor is the fact that he’s an incredible physical specimen. The man is a natural powerhouse that dominated a very good wrestler in Mark Munoz and outside of the Jon Jones fight has never even come close to being outwrestled. When Hamill gets a hold of someone, it’s scary how much stronger he seems to be, as he throws grown men around like rag dolls and just mauls on them. He has natural power in his strikes and walks through punches like a terminator, although his untechnical striking means he eats a lot of them.
This provides an interesting matchup for Jardine. For once he’s a more technical striker, and he has a nice big target to work over with his nice variety of strikes, since Hamill is open from head to toe, leg kicks to uppercuts. Unfortunately he’s going to have trouble getting Hamill to shell up and not throw back, since Matt just engages in brawls and throws both hands freely, which is very dangerous for someone as prone to getting hit with the big, fight-ending shot as Jardine is.
Hamill fell apart on his back against Jones, but it’s very unlikely Jardine can take him down like Jones did, and while Jardine can out-strike Hamill, it seems unlikely that he can fight the three rounds Hamill is good for without getting hit at some point. If a super gassed Ryan Bader, a very right-hand-dominant fighter to boot, can land a left and put down Jardine, there’s no reason Hamill can’t do the same thing. If Hamill comes in consciously looking for the lefts and pressuring Jardine, not just standing around sponging up damage from kicks, then you can guarantee that Jardine is going to get put to sleep yet again. Matt Hamill by KO round 2.
Court McGee (-200) vs. Kris McCray (+175)
Kris is a big, strong guy that has very little offensive output and wears himself out just trying to muscle his opponents around. Court is an all-rounder that will be giving up size to Kris but has enough grit to stick around when Kris wears out, and he has more offensive firepower than Kris. This really comes down to how well Court can stay away from Kris’ body-lock and how well he can exploit Kris’ cardio when he wears down in the later rounds. If Kris has improved his cardio and gameplanning, he could be on top of Court for the whole fight, but from what has been seen so far, Court will be in the driver’s seat for the second and third rounds, for sure. He’s too gritty and hard-driving for someone that wears down like Kris does, and he has better striking. Court McGee by decision.
Chris Leben (+275) vs. Aaron Simpson (-345)
This is perhaps the most meaningful fight on the card, as Simpson has the most well-established potential of anyone on the card, without having the clear limitations of someone like Jardine or Hamill. Leben is massively flawed and those weaknesses are well-established and easily exploitable at this point. He slows down in the late rounds, he telegraphs all his shots, and he has real trouble avoiding any strikes. Simpson isn’t an ace striker, but he has very big natural power. Leben is durable to a fault, so he could be on the receiving end of a massive beating here. Simpson is also a much stronger wrestler and could get on top of Leben and just smash him up, which has historically been the safest route to victory against Leben. With Leben looking worse and worse in each fight (aside from against a massively overmatched Jay Silva) it wouldn’t be too shocking if Simpson ground him up enough for the referee to call it, just to stop the punishment to an exhausted Leben. Aaron Simpson by TKO round 3.
Spencer Fisher (-175) vs. Dennis Siver (+155)
This is a fight where, for once, what’s going on outside the ring is more important than what’s been happening in it. While psychological analysis from armchair psychologists deciding who “looks scared” at weigh-ins and similar foolishness is completely meaningless, Fisher has serious personal problems, has left his traditional team and management, and looked like a corpse against Joe Stevenson. Unless he’s gotten himself together, Siver is going to run right over him.
In a vacuum, Fisher’s offensive talent standing and on the floor is dangerous to Siver, although he’s very poor in terms of takedown defense and Siver can work well on top. However, Siver is a solid all-rounder that doesn’t leave Fisher an easy path to victory if he is not well-prepared for this fight. Siver is a tough fight for all but the elite of this division, and Fisher will likely be in no shape for a drawn-out dogfight. With so much else on his mind, if Siver hits him with a few gut shots, the typically tough Fisher will probably fall apart just like he did against Stevenson. Dennis Siver by TKO round 2.
Siver is priced as if Fisher is going to come in improved and in the best shape of his life. Bet him at +155 because Fisher won’t be well-trained.
Rich Attonito (-110) vs. Jamie Yager (-110)
Yager has awful hair and very little experience. He’s most known for having “no heart” for quitting in a tough fight, which is likely more a reflection on his inexperience with ever being really challenged in a fight. Attonito is tough and could make Yager have to deal with that kind of test of will again, but Yager, with his striking power, will be in control of this fight. Either way, the winner will make a great set-up fight for some legitimate UFC fighter to pick up an easy win and punt the guy out of the UFC. Jamie Yager by KO round 1.
PRELIMINARY CARD
John Gunderson (-220) vs. Mark Holst (+200)
Holst is a very sharp striker who has some ground skills making his UFC debut, and Gunderson is yet another mediocre all-rounder. Holst is a more dynamic fighter here, with more tools that can threaten Gunderson than Gunderson can throw back his way. You can expect Gunderson to get touched up early by Holst’s striking and then not really engage effectively after that point, ceding the fight to Holst. Mark Holst by decision.
This is another good bet, with Holst being undervalued because he’s unknown.
Seth Baczynski (+190) vs. Brad Tavares (-240)
Seth is a man that went life or death with Joe Henle. Tavares is a stereotypical tough banger from Hawaii, although he doesn’t have much pro experience. Seth has the grappling chops to submit Brad, but he’s going to have trouble with Tavares’ physicality, which will make it very hard for Seth to drag the fight to the ground without getting roughed up. Brad Tavares by decision.
Josh Bryant (+160) vs. Kyle Noke (-170)
Noke really struggled with fighters that could put him on his back, which is Bryant’s key to victory here. Noke is a very experienced veteran, but this is a very poor style matchup for him. Both men will be tested in this fight, which will probably go to a very close decision. Bryant is pushed over the top because of his toughness and natural punching power. He’s also a bigger man than Noke. Josh Bryant by decision.
Chris Camozzi (-130) vs. James Hammortree (+110)
Camozzi is getting his second chance after being eliminated from the show due to a broken jaw, and he has to be favored here. Hammortree may have a name manly enough for a viking raider (and a nickname horrible enough for bumfights, but he just doesn’t have the fight experience or game to deal with a solid guy like Camozzi. This fight is going to be another tough matchup between substandard fighters not long for the UFC. Chris Camozzi by submission round 1.
Travis Browne (-175) vs. James McSweeney (+155)
McSweeney has put on a lot of size after his past struggles with giant men, which is good, because that’s Browne’s most oustanding talent: being 6’7” and huge. Browne should be able to put his weight on McSweeney, who has never been able to keep away from big men or use his more technical striking to the fullest. Look for Browne to simply put his weight on McSweeney early and wear the smaller man out. Travis Browne by TKO round 2.
My plays:
2u on Dennis Siver at (+155) to win 3.1u
1u on Mark Holst at (+200) to win 2u
